Preakness 2021: Dan Illman's picks and analysis

MEDINA SPIRIT showed his tactical ability when wiring them in the Derby, and it’s unlikely he’ll wind up dueling with his uncoupled stablemate Concert Tour going into the first turn. There’s a chance that Medina Spirit is in control of this Preakness on the backstretch, and he proved in the Derby that he is very tough to catch once he asserts himself up front. He holds a strong speed-figure edge over these and is simply the one to beat, albeit at a low price.

UNBRIDLED HONOR is an interesting new face that would benefit if the pace does heat up. His second-place finish in the Lexington at Keeneland might have been mainly a result of race flow. That being said, he looks like a late-developing sort who is coming into this race fresh for a Hall of Fame trainer. He has a strong pedigree, with his dam a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Roman Ruler and El Corredor.

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There’s a chance that CONCERT TOUR is the most naturally talented runner in the field, and his victory in the Rebel at Oaklawn may have been the most visually appealing Derby prep in 2021. He underperformed finishing third as the odds-on favorite in the Arkansas Derby last out, although he chased a very fast pace before tiring in the final furlong. I think he can sit just off the top pick on the backstretch and get first jump swinging into the stretch. A very dangerous rebound candidate.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON was bumped early in the Derby, but he’s usually a very tactical horse and can find a good forward position behind the speeds.

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