Posts make outsiders of favorites in Arlington Million

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Thirty to one. That’s the morning-line price on each of the inside four horses in the Grade 1, $1 million Arlington Million on Saturday. The top four choices on the track’s morning line – 7-2 favorite Tryster, 4-1 World Approval, 5-1 Wake Forest, and 6-1 Deauville – will occupy the four outside stalls when the bell rings at 5:09 p.m. Central for the 34th Million’s start, and their perceived superiority had better be substantial if they are to overcome those posts in the 1 1/4-mile turf race.

A little secret about the 1 1/4-mile turf races at Arlington, which start awkwardly at the end of the far turn: Outside draws are really bad. Daily Racing Form post-position stats here go back to 1991, and since then, posts 9 through 14 have produced five winners from 113 starters. Post 12, occupied by Tryster, is 1 for 13, and no horse has won from post 13, Deauville’s draw.

Deauville has trainer Aidan O’Brien, a two-time Million winner, on his side as he tries to become the second 3-year-old to win the race and the first since Tolomeo in 1983. Third choice Wake Forest won the Grade 1 Man o’ War in May, but he was only sixth in this race last year.

Put it all together, and bettors could do worse than hunting for a better-drawn price in what is annually and easily the biggest race on the Chicago circuit.

The Million is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Win and You’re In race, offering the winner a fees-paid berth in the BC Turf. It’s the last of three Grade 1 stakes on the card, immediately preceded by the Beverly D. and the Secretariat. The 10-race card concludes with the Grade 3 Pucker Up for 3-year-old fillies and includes the Grade 3, $300,000 American St. Leger. Guaranteed pick-three, pick-four, and pick-five pools end on the Million.

Weather could be a factor. The Arlington turf was firm Thursday, but heavy rain was forecast for Thursday night through Friday night. There’s a slight chance of more rain Saturday, with the high temperature forecast to be 83.

A break in the hot, sticky weather is good news for the three shipping in from Europe, Tryster, Mondialiste, and Decorated Knight. Decorated Knight will have to step up from a Group 3 win last out, and trainer Roger Charlton said he has begun settling better early in his races and is an improved horse, but he is here for firm going.

“He’s a fast-ground horse,” said Charlton. “I hope they don’t get rain.”

Tryster, the morning-line favorite, also wants the top of the turf. He was not embarrassed when finishing fifth over soft ground last out in the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, but Tryster’s best races came last winter over much firmer going in Dubai.

“He didn’t run too badly at Ascot,” said Chris Connett, who traveled with Tryster for trainer Charlie Appleby. “The ground was probably on the softer side than he’d like.”

William Buick rides Tryster, a strong closer, and figures to drop him straight back for position out of the gate. Mondialiste also comes from behind but handles a wider variety of conditions and has run two good races in North America, winning the Woodbine Mile and finishing second to Tepin in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Mondialiste’s form fell apart following the Breeders’ Cup, but he was back on track last month at York, finishing second to the high-class Time Test when stretched to 1 1/4 miles.

“I wasn’t worried as such – it took him a few starts last year to hit his form,” said trainer David O’Meara. “He was starting to look better before York, and he gave Time Test a really strong battle.”

World Approval has the best form among the U.S.-based horses and won his first Grade 1 in the United Nations at Monmouth last month. World Approval has run five strong races already this year, but trainer Mark Casse insists that the horse continues to thrive, and World Approval, a closer last year, now has tactical speed to mitigate his wide draw.

“We learned something about him over time,” said Casse. “He has a fair amount of speed, and we weren’t using it to our full advantage.”

Florent Geroux rides World Approval and can win his second straight Million. Last year, he piloted The Pizza Man to victory, but The Pizza Man has Mike Smith in the irons Saturday. The Pizza Man ran strongly through the end of last year but in three 2016 starts has failed to come close to his best form.

“He came back better off the farm last year, and that’s why I think it’s taken him a little longer to round into form,” said trainer Roger Brueggemann. “I don’t think he’s lost a step, but we’ll find out.”

Wake Forest had little pace at which to run when third in the United Nations, and trainer Chad Brown said the horse wasn’t at his best that day.

“He was a little agitated after shipping in, and in the paddock he was washy, just wasn’t himself,” Brown said.

Wake Forest arrived Tuesday and again got washy during training Wednesday and Thursday.

Take the Stand makes his first start since winning the Mervin Muniz Handicap over World Approval at Fair Grounds on March 26 and could wind up the controlling speed. Take the Stand was intended for a start in the Poker Stakes this summer but suffered a minor setback that cost him a Million prep, according to Bill Mott’s assistant Rodolphe Brisset. Both Take the Stand and Mott’s second runner, Dubai Sky, have looked great galloping this week.

Arlington Handicap winner Kasaqui, a South American import, has run two strong races since falling May 7 in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.

“He might have something more to give,” said trainer Ignacio Correas. “I hope so.”