Post 1 an advantage for Vahva in Charles Town Oaks
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At seven furlongs around two turns, the Grade 3, $750,000 Charles Town Oaks is ideal for a filly who might not really want a true route of ground and who might not be ideally suited to standard one-turn sprints. Vahva is just such a horse.
Vahva drew post 1 and will have John Velazquez aboard when she tries for her first stakes win in the Charles Town Oaks, which can accommodate 10 runners and drew an overflow field.
Vahva is second choice at 7-2 on the morning line behind 3-1 favorite Hoosier Philly. Hoosier Philly was the early favorite this year for the Kentucky Oaks after three easy wins at age 2 but so far has failed to develop substantially as a 3-year-old. She lost her first three races of 2023 before capturing the Monomoy Girl on June 17 at Ellis Park, where she beat the Grade 1 winner Wet Paint after controlling an extremely slow pace.
A foot injury forced Hoosier Philly out of an intended race July 22 in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga, after which trainer Tom Amoss took her back to Churchill Downs, where Hoosier Philly has worked twice in recent weeks. Amoss won this race in 2013 with So Many Ways and won at least one Charles Town stakes every year between 2011 and 2016, but he’s 4-0-0-0 with Charles Town starters since 2017, and Hoosier Philly won’t be making an easy lead here.
Trainer Chad Brown won the 2012 Charles Town Oaks with Book Review, and while Brown hasn’t run a horse at Charles Town since 2013, he has two entrants, Interpolate and Undervalued Asset, for Friday’s race.
Interpolate got a 91 Beyer Speed Figure finishing second in the Beaumont Stakes in April at Keeneland, a outlier figure for a horse whose other five numbers range between 60 and 74. She’s at least drawn well in post 3 under Junior Alvarado, who nearly never rides for Brown, while recent Saratoga allowance winner Undervalued Asset and jockey Tyler Gaffalione are stuck on the far outside. Post 10 isn’t a deal-breaker, but post position data dating to 2010 suggests posts 1 to 5 do confer a meaningful advantage going seven furlongs at Charles Town.
Post 1 does best of all, and that’s where Vahva starts. A half-length winner over Undervalued Asset in a 6 1/2-furlong Churchill allowance race May 5, Vahva didn’t run again until July 8, when she was third in a hot renewal of the Victory Ride at Belmont Park. The late Maple Leaf Mel, who was going to win the Grade 1 Test before suffering a fatal injury, went wire to wire in the Victory Ride, and Dazzling Blue, an extremely talented Juddmonte Farms homebred, finished a strong second.
Vahva stumbled badly at the start of her two-turn debut, the Untapable Stakes this past winter at Fair Grounds, and had a tough trip there in her other route try, the Rachel Alexandra, where she was trapped inside and behind horses in a slow-paced contest.
Those true routes didn’t work for Vahva, but Friday’s sprint-like route race at Charles Town just might.
Pink Ribbon Stakes
Society won the 2022 Charles Town Oaks with a brilliant performance on the same card where Frank’s Rockette was exceedingly sharp landing the Pink Ribbon Stakes. This time, the two horses are running against one another in the $250,000 Pink Ribbon, a seven-furlong female-restricted race Friday night that came up surprisingly strong.
Society, just a 4-year-old, remains a filly on the rise, while Frank’s Rockette at age 6 might not be quite the same mare she was a year ago. Nonetheless, the odds spread in the morning line between the two – 6-5 on Society and 7-2 on Frank’s Rockette – feels too wide.
Society went from the Charles Town Oaks on to win the Grade 1 Cotillion before regressing badly in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She was a decent third behind Goodnight Olive making her 2023 debut in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland before a flat ninth in the La Troienne at Churchill in May. Society finally broke out with a 10 3/4-length win in the Grade 3 Chicago Stakes, a seven-furlong Ellis Park race in which the capable Matareya was favored. But while Society earned a career-best 105 Beyer Speed Figure in the Chicago, she rode a distinct rail bias to victory and might struggle to get back to that level despite trainer Steve Asmussen giving the filly ample recovery time.
Frank’s Rockette, meanwhile, looked about as good as ever winning the Hurricane Bertie in March at Gulfstream Park, but the mare had to work to capture the Roxelana Stakes on April 29 at Churchill as an odds-on favorite. Society’s stablemate Echo Zulu crushed Frank’s Rockette on July 26 in the Honorable Miss at Saratoga, and Frank’s Rockette had run much better in the 2022 Honorable Miss before her Pink Ribbon tour de force.
Asmussen’s second entrant, Wicked Halo, will have a great chance if Frank’s Rockette and Society compromise each other on the front end. Wicked Halo, Keith Asmussen named to ride, never runs a bad race, and her second behind Goodnight Olive in the June 27 Bed o’ Roses at Belmont puts her squarely in win contention.
Hilton Stakes
Trevor McCarthy figured out the tricky Swirvin while riding the colt for the first time in the Jersey Shore Aug. 6 at Monmouth Park. McCarthy is back aboard in the Robert Hilton Memorial and can put his knowledge of Swirvin to good use in the $350,000 Hilton, a two-turn race at seven furlongs.
Swirvin, a Girvin colt trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. has shown ability in all four of his starts, but without proper attention from his jockey, Swirvin is liable to come off the bridle and stop running. He did that on multiple occasions at Gulfstream, especially in the Carry Back over seven furlongs on June 24. On the early lead, Swirvin backed off the pace at the half-mile pole and looked headed for a last-place finish before he began running again and finished a close fourth.
McCarthy kept Swirvin engaged from the start of the Jersey Shore, which Swirvin won by 2 1/2 lengths, going away. From post 1 in the Hilton, Swirvin can get a favorable pocket trip if he’ll once again do what McCarthy asks of him.
Ryvit, a speed horse drawn in post 10, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite for Asmussen and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Ryvit will try to cross over and clear. The colt was hampered by a poor start when running well below his best form last month in the Amsterdam at Saratoga.
Prince of Jericho, Damon’s Mound, and Super Accelerate also are plausible winners in a deep race.
◗ Benevengo will be favored in the $250,000 Russell Road, a seven-furlong race for older horses that, as race 7, kicks off the important stakes action.
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