Pocono: Saturday 6/29 Analysis
Best Bet: HANNELORE HANOVER (6th)
Spot Play: FILIBUSTER HANOVER (5th)
Race 9 $1 Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,5,6,8 / 2,4 / 1,2,5 / 2 = $30
Race 1 - $30,000/$40,000 Claiming Handicap
(4) PEMBROKE WILDCAT sits at 20-1 on the morning line and maybe that helps me get 10-1 on a horse that is plenty sharp right now and as fast as anyone in the field. (9) ROCK THE TOWN has won two straight at this level but does change barns tonight. In theory he is the one to beat but hard to put all your eggs in his basket at short odds. (6) BORDER CONTROL A raced well in his first start for Allard and should play well in here. (1) FEEL THE NEED A was claimed last time for the third straight week and now he enters a barn that wins at 35%.
[SUN STAKES: Free Harness Eye PPs, 20% Rebate & Live Video for Sun Stakes Saturday at The Downs at Pocono.]
Race 2 - $30,000/$40,000 Claiming Handicap
(6) SLIPIN SKIP went a big mile off the claim and there is no reason he can’t do it again up in class. (9) ATTA BOY DAN is always competitive from the outside post in this class, though there is some uncertainty with another new barn calling the shots. (5) BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT moves into a new stable for the fifth straight week and Team Bongiorno has been known to wake them up at times. (7) WARP FACTOR THREE is running a string of six straight claims and the last time he started for Allard the result was a win.
Race 3 – James Lynch Consolation
(3) ANNIE HILL came out at the head of the lane and paced home in 26 seconds to get a small check last week. Moving to the inside of the gate versus easier, Sears should have her in play early. (7) SYLPH HANOVER hasn’t been overly consistent but I wouldn’t be shocked if she tried to gun off the gate in this spot and steal the race. (4) TRILLIONS HANOVER is a clear contender but I’d like her better if she showed early speed. (1) ROCKN PHILLY moves to an inside post here and could show more.
Race 4 - $30,000/$40,000 Claiming Handicap
(4) SOMETIMESAWINNER does his best work from off the pace and there seems to be ample early speed to his outside to set up his rally. (3) JEREMES GENERAL improved in his second start for this barn. (7) CASH IS KING looks for his third straight and has never been worse than third since claimed by Surick. (1) FOX VALLEY INFERNO got aggressive the last time he drew the pylon position and at what should be good odds could be worth using.
Race 5 – Ben Franklin Consolation
(1) FILIBUSTER HANOVER zigged when he should’ve zagged last week in the pocket as Lather Up got funky on the final turn. He finally draws well and it’s time for Gingras to take no prisoners. (2) DEALT A WINNER can save ground from this spot and scoot up the cones for a nice piece. (4) ROCKIN RON has big early speed and I’m guessing he’ll be using it, if for no other reason than to protect his stablemate on the cones. (5) HIGHALATOR is a horse I always guess wrong with. He was bad last week and with speed to his inside, I can’t recommend him.
Race 6 – Great Northeast Invitational
(1) HANNELORE HANOVER was used hard and came up empty late last time yet still trotted in 1:51 4/5; she’s that good. Unless she has some underlying issue, there is no way she should lose. (8) SUCH AN ANGEL has big early speed and just missed in this series last time. (5) RICH AND MISERABLE goes for lucky number seven in a row and proved he could handle this type last time, but tackling the top pick is a big leap. (2) MUSCLE DIAMOND looks like a fringe player but one with the talent to step up.
Race 7 – Non-winners $10,500 in last 5 starts
(7) TE KAWAU N drops out of claiming action where the going is quite tough. Veteran gelding has picked up seven wins over this track since 2017. (5) MAJOR AUTHORITY tends to race better with good posts and he does pick up Sears here. (1) SHOOTERS DREAM is another moving inside and he gets the aggressive Gingras; maybe. (4) BABY KITTY raced well at a similar level at Philly last time and won’t be hurt by the addition of a Hall of Fame driver this time.
Race 8 – Max Hempt Consolation
(6) CAPTAIN TREVOR was asked to make up too much ground versus a better group than he faces this week. As long as McCarthy keeps him in striking range, this is his race to lose. (1) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH is likely going to be firing off the gate and should be sitting the right trip. (3) ODDS ON BOCA RATON comes off a decent mile in the eliminations and wouldn’t be a total shock here. (4) SEMI TOUGH doesn’t win often but should get into the bottom exotics.
Race 9 - $300,000 James Lynch Memorial
(3) BLUE IVY finished up her mile strong to get second in the eliminations and the fact that Tetrick is jumping ship means we’ll get a better price with the very capable Tyler Buter coming on board. She’s not the best horse in the race, but she’s capable in what looks to be a wide-open affair. (1) WARRAWEE UBEAUT is no doubt the one to beat and I’m not going to fault her for getting away with easy fractions last week. The question is whether you think 7-5 or so is acceptable. (5) TREACHEROUS REIGN finished in 53 2/5 while uncovered and held for third last week. She already has one big trophy in her showcase this year. (4) STONEBRIDGE SOUL flashed speed at both ends of the mile last Saturday and has been within a length of these at the wire nearly every week. (6) ODDS ON ST LUCIE won’t offer the listed 20-1 odds but should still be good value on a filly that is 7 for 12 lifetime and has yet to lose this year.
Race 10 – $500,000 Max Hempt Memorial
(4) HURRIKANE EMPEROR showed marked improvement last time and trainer John McDermott mentioned that his poor performance in the NA Cup was equipment related. Now that he’s had a couple of starts versus the best in the division, and from a perfect mid-pack post, I think we’ll see his best race to date. (2) PROOF was absolutely tremendous in his elimination and is clearly the horse to beat. (8) CAPTAIN VICTORIOUS could offer some value here despite a sharp elimination win. (6) AIR FORCE HANOVER improved again last time and he certainly has the early speed to be involved.
Race 11 - $500,000 Ben Franklin
(2) SPRINGSTEEN charged home in his first start of the year to just miss the win as driver Simon Allard barely asked him in the stretch. The pair won the Hempt here last year and I believe a big mile is coming. (1) MCWICKED came up short late in the mile last week but the near-quadruple millionaire is as game as they come and hard to toss. (5) THIS IS THE PLAN missed versus possible favorite Western Fame by less than a length last time at 21-1 and seems to be an improving 4-year-old who could pop at a big price. (7) LATHER UP is a talented horse that could definitely win but he’s made too many mistakes at this track for my liking and the outside post won’t help.
Race 12 - $500,000 Earl Beal Memorial
(2) GREENSHOE is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite but will be right around 1-5 come post time. He’s by far the best horse in the race and hasn’t shown any signs of the issues which plagued him last year while winning all three of his 2019 starts. There is simply no angle to suggest playing another horse on top. (7) MARSEILLE has yet to miss the board in three starts this year and he did take a bit of a shuffle in his elimination; value for exacta. (3) SUMMIT IN SIGHT looked like he broke at the wire in his elimination but I guess the Judges felt differently. Either way, the son of Muscle Hill has shown guts when on the track and he merits exacta consideration as well. (1) GREEN MANALISHI S raced well last week but it wasn’t enough to make me accept him as the clear-cut second choice here. I’m just not convinced that Tetrick is going to blast him off the gate and if he doesn’t, the trip likely won’t be good.
Race 13 – Non-winners $18,000 in last 5 starts
(5) DRAWING DRAGONS was part of a wicked pace last week and still held well at the end of the mile. Dropping in class this week, I’ll take a shot. (4) ROOTIN TOOTIN is back at Pocono in a class where he was racing very well. (3) SOHO WALLSTREET A and (2) OSTRO HANOVER finished second and third in the same condition last time.
Race 14 – Non-winners $12,500 in last 5 starts
(4) CANBEC KINGKAZMIR comes in from out of town off a race where he had no shot; rolling the dice. (6) CAPTAIN DEO picked up some confidence at Tioga but I would’ve liked to see him win by more and not miss the next start due to sickness. (2) ALL WEEK should be forwardly placed this week. (8) DAKOTA JACK won at this level two starts back.