Pocono: Analysis for Sunday 7/12

MEET STATS: 9 - 28 / $47.20 (-$8.80)
BEST BETS: 1 - 2 / $2.60 (-$1.40)
SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 2 / $0.00 (-$4.00)
BEST BET - BLACKWELL RUBY IR (12th)
SPOT PLAY - CHASE H HANOVER (4th)

Race 1 - F&M NW4/50000LT Pace

(6) MARLOE HANOVER burned some money over at the Meadowlands, but those were some pretty high-quality groups she was facing, and I don't think she raced poorly. I think this is an easier spot tonight and will use. (3) PASSPORT HANOVER races at the NW4 level again after an improved third-place effort last Sunday. She has Bartlett back again, and he usually puts her in play. (2) TALK SHOW CHICA pulled a 16-1 upset in that same event Passport Hanover comes out of, rallying by after a second-over trip. She remains in the same class and should be competitive again.

Race 2 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(2) REPEAL OR REPLACE closed with interest a week ago, moving up from eighth to fourth in the last quarter. He draws an inside post this week, and I'll give him a shot. (3) ONEDARKKNIGHT faded after an inside trip last Sunday, but he might have needed the race since it was his first start since March. He beat NW2 locally and missed by just a neck against NW4's after that, so I think he can be included on the hopes that he improves after the tightener. (1) ACTON HANOVER was no match for the well-meant Mister Miami but hung around to finish second again. I can't recommend him for a win bet, but do think he should be used underneath.

Race 3 - Pennsylvania All Stars 2YO C&G Pace

(1) SUMMA CUM LAUDE was a strong second in the PA Sire Stakes at Harrah's Philadelphia and retains Matt Kakaley over another Burke trainee in here. (4) LOU'S PEARLMAN won his PaSS flight at Harrah's Philly from first-over. Since Kakaley went to my top pick, I'm going to assume that means this one is just a little bit behind the other and put underneath. (2) BAZOOKA HANOVER also scored at Harrah's Philly in a division of The Stallion Series. I like to see a rookie with winning experience at this point, and that was a nice 27 second final quarter in his last qualifier up at Woodbine Mohawk Park.

Race 4 - Pennsylvania All Stars 2YO C&G Pace

(1) CHASE H HANOVER finished strongly in his PaSS split at Harrah's Philadelphia from an outside draw and gets significant post relief tonight. I'll hope for a little value. (2) LITERL LAD HANOVER looks like the better of the Burke duo based on how they performed at Harrah's Philly and Gingras ends up on this guy after being listed on both. (6) STONEBRIDGE REEF qualified sharply at Magical Acres and makes his pari-mutuel debut tonight. He was Dexter Dunn's choice of two, and I'll look for him to be rallying from off-the-pace.

Race 5 - Pennsylvania All Stars 2YO C&G Pace

(3) CAPT JACK HANOVER got bet down in the sire stakes at Harrah's Philly and was following along nicely in the three-hole when he stepped on the wheel of a rival, made a break, and lost all chance. I'll hope he can avoid trouble tonight and give him a try. (4) GREAT SOMEWHERE won a division of The Stallion Series impressively and moves up here to meet a couple exiting the sire stakes. I think he fits with any improvement off that initial start. (2) FULSOME came home in 27 and change at Harrah's Philly after getting shuffled back on the inside and shifts to an inside post for this start. He was the highest-priced yearling in the field at $200,000.

Race 6 - F&M NW3000L5 Pace

(7) MALNIFICENT tried very hard from first-over last Sunday but just couldn't get by the classy Shezallapples A. She gets further class relief tonight, and although she does move outside, I expect Dube to have her on or near the lead. (5) LOVERS COVE was favored against NW5000L5's at Yonkers but broke stride and dropped out of contention. I've seen her rebound off poor efforts to win before, and if she is going to right the ship, it'll probably come in a spot like this one tonight. (1) SWEET MARTHA LOU came in third a week ago when she shifted to this NW3000L5 class. She does lose Marcus Miller to another one, but she should get well-positioned from the inside draw.

Race 7 - F&M NW6000L5 Pace

(5) ROLLING GOING GONE knocked on the door at the NW9000L5 level, finishing third and then second and drops tonight for the Carlson/Garcia-Herrera tandem. Hopefully the class relief will be paired with another good effort and she'll find the winner's circle. (4) AMAZING ARYA was the favorite back on June 28 but could only manage fourth after getting shuffled back. She moves down the class ladder just like my top pick does and is a logical one to include. (6) OCEANIA switched up tactics on 6-28, but it didn't work out. I think she's much better from off-the-pace, and I expect her to have that trip tonight with Marohn Jr. back in the bike.

Race 8 - NW9000L5 Trot

(4) EVERYONE'S TALKIN receives a break from the gods of the post position draw tonight as after being stuck with two ten-holes at the Meadowlands, he gets post four this time. He's also reunited with Andrew McCarthy, who piloted him to a fourth-place finish two back. (5) KATKIN AND COKE gave way very late in the mile after making front in the second quarter last Sunday. It was a very strong effort and George Napolitano Jr. handles him again here. (3) MUSHANA might be the one to beat in this race dropping after a third-place efforts against NW17500L5's and NW12500L5's. I respect his chances but will hope for a little better price elsewhere.

Race 9 - Pennsylvania All Stars 2YO C&G Pace

(1) MONTEREY JACK qualified in sharp fashion twice at the Meadowlands and kept Gingras's services over a Burke horse in here. I'll look for him to win in his pari-mutuel debut. (6) BILLY CLYDE has a win at Pocono and a couple of starts under his belt unilke others in here. He did come up short as the favorite at Harrah's Philly, but maybe MacDonald switches it up and tries to front-end this group. (4) THE LEGEND HANOVER displayed good final quarter and overall speed in his two trials at Scioto, and although he wasn't David Miller's choice, I'll use with Dexter Dunn taking over.

Race 10 - Pennsylvania All Stars 2YO C&G Pace

(3) ALWAYS A MIKI impressed me the most out of the PaSS winners at Harrah's Philly, and since he draws an inside post tonight, I'll bank on him going two-for-two for Dunn and Takter. (2) BAYFIELD BEACH certainly merits respect as he was victorious in his PaSS flight at Harrah's Philly in gate-to-wire fashion and hails from the top-notch Brian Brown barn. (6) SOUTHWIND GENDRY did not race in the sire stakes at Harrah's Philly, but that's a strong final quarter at Gaitway, and I think he might be able to hit the ticket.

Race 11 - F&M NW17500L5 / NW8 or 90000LT Pace

(3) CRYSTAL SPARKLES N landed in tough spots from outside posts for her first two starts off the shelf at Yonkers, but she drops again tonight and draws inside. She was Jason Bartlett's choice and will be mine as well. (4) QUEEN LOSTRIS N prevailed down at Harrah's Philly most recently and comes back to Pocono tonight for the potent Napolitano Jr/Garcia-Herrera tandem. George Nap handled her aggressively in the victory and I expect similar coming here. (7) GIRL'S GOT RHYTHM finished with a good kick in this class a week ago and hails from the high-percentage Nick Devita barn. She gets a pilot change also to Hall of Famer David Miller.

Race 12 - F&M NW6/70000LT Pace

(5) BLACKWELL RUBY IR blew the doors off a NW6 field last Sunday coming off just a qualifier, so if anything she should be even better tonight. She won't offer any price, but I won't try and beat her. (1) FREE EXCHANGE gained spots off an inside trip to finish second to Blackwell Ruby IR in that event a week ago, and I could see the same thing happening here. (3) CRAZY CUTE raced great against NW5's at Harrah's Philly, picking up two wins, and returns to Pocono tonight. She's another threat for the Napolitano Jr./Garcia-Herrera duo.

Race 13 - F&M NW12000L5/NW7 or 80000LT Pace

(7) BETTERB CHEVRON N ended up with a good trip but couldn't finish it off in the last quarter a week ago. She drops again tonight and hopefully she can find some of the success she had last season when she was a consistent threat in the mares open at Yonkers. (4) ATTENTION HANOVER got up for third behind two good ones in Baron Remy and Vorst back on June 28 and slides down a notch on the class scale here. She raced on or near the lead back in the winter in similar spots, so maybe that's what Corey Callahan will elect to do tonight. (2) ALII NUI was third at the Meadowlands and second at Pocono in her two efforts since coming back from the racing shutdown. She looks like a contender in here.

Race 14 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(6) EHRMANTRAUT slides down to NW4 after tackling NW6 on July 4 here at Pocono. I really liked this horse's win over a quality NW4 group at the Meadowlands back in June and hope he might have a bit of value. (2) OAKWOODNITOWNIT IR invades from Northfield where he was second in the open two back, so NW4 at Pocono seems like a pretty soft spot. He's done nothing wrong since joining the Ron Burke barn, and I expect him to be a significant factor in this event. (4) JOJO'S PLACE backed away after doing the tough work from first-over last Sunday, but Corey Callahan guided him to a facile victory over NW4's two back and reassumes the driving duties tonight.