Pocono: Analysis for Sunday 10/4

MEET STATS: 56 - 196 / $314.20 (-$77.80)
BEST BETS: 9 - 14 / $23.80 (-$4.20)
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 14 / $33.40 (+$5.40)
BEST BET - WARRAWEE VELOCE (12th)
SPOT PLAY - AUTOTUNE HANOVER (5th)

Race 1 - 12500CLM Pace

(2) REGAL HOPE won when last at Pocono on 8-31 and drew well to give Simons options on how to handle him. (7) FERNADO drops again in search of a winning spot for the high-percentage Taneyhill barn. He showed more early foot up at Tioga in August, so maybe Napolitano hustles him out of there this time. (9) ALWAYS B MAGIC kept Buter over some other horses in this race and is in good form. He might have to work hard from this outside post, though, so I will only use underneath.

Race 2 - F&M 10000-12500CLM HCP Pace

(9) SHES SPORTY A has been razor-sharp for a while and overcame post nine to win on the 28th of September. She meets up with a field here she can definitely win against. (3) SAPPHIRE HILL owns a pair of third-place finishes since coming back off the qualifier and gets another chance with Marcus Miller from a good post. (6) DAWN SHOOTER raced well back in August to get a second and a win at this level but has picked up just one check since then. I'll include in hopes of a better effort with some value in tris and supers.

Race 3 - F&M NW4/50000LT Pace

(6) WINNING WORDS keeps threatening in this NW4 class and usually with a decent price. Hopefully this is the week she can get the job done with Napolitano sticking with her. (4) GALLERIA GAL is 0-for-8 this year but note those were all against the best of the New York Sire Stakes program. She finished third in the sire stakes final and might take advantage of a chance at overnight competition. (3) PRINCESS SHARKTANK owns a win over NW4's at Pocono on August 30 and might have needed that race on September 20 after being scratched on 9-8 at Yonkers.

Race 4 - 10000-12500CLM HCP Trot

(8) STOP RESISTIN finished second for the third straight time at this level on 9-28. He should be a square price again, and he has won three times in 2020, so I will put on top. (5) SHADY MCCOY improved quite a bit with the switch to the Pellegrino barn last time out and another step up isn't out of the question here. (6) EV'S GIRL pulled the upset in the same race my top pick exits and retains Napolitano's services tonight.

Race 5 - 10000-12500CLM HCP Pace

(3) AUTOTUNE HANOVER hikes up from the $7,500 claimers, but trainer John Hallett's horses have been firing regularly lately, and I think he can work out another stalking trip with Marcus Miller taking over. (6) ASCARYONE HANOVER enters this race with two consecutive victories and was Napolitano's pick over several others, including my top selection. (7) SPRINGBRIDGE PROUD closed from ninth to fourth in the final quarter on the 28th of September. He's 0-for-seven in the win column this year, but you have to respect anything Tanneyhill sends out.

Race 6 - 7500CLM Pace

(7) DAFINATY appeared a little short in the stretch on 9-28 after having a gap in a schedule and just the one qualifier. This horse won against $7,500 claimers on September 7. (4) COLE PORTER N dropped down to this level in the same event my top pick comes out of and just missed by a nose. Anthony Napolitano is at the lines again, and he appears a logical one to include. (5) WESTERN ALUMNI switched things up in that $7,500 claimer on the 28th of September and raced from off-the-pace. That might set him up for a more aggressive approach this time, and he owns a recent front-stepping victory.

Race 7 - NW3000L5 Trot

(2) HANOVERS BEST wound up second-best last Sunday when she couldn't stave off the well-meant Andovers Touch. I think she's worth another shot tonight in her third start back off the bench. (6) MUSCLE STAR made a break last time out but had two third-place efforts against NW6000L5's prior to that, and he would definitely be a big contender on the drop if he minds his manners. (8) O JONNIE shows a couple of runner-up performances against NW6000L5's back in August and should probably be a price tonight. Wallis takes over the driving.

Race 8 - 7500CLM Pace

(2) CHANCELLORCULLEN N is just one-for-27 the last couple of years but gets to drop down from the $10,000 claiming level and did threaten in this class back in August, finishing second and third. (4) CARMENS BEST wasn't as good on the 28th of September as he had been in prior efforts, but that was a pretty fast opening quarter for the 12-year-old. Napolitano is back in the bike again. (5) MYSTERY ISLAND has been outside the top three just once in his last six appearances and scored a hard-fought win on 9-28.

Race 9 - F&M NW3000L5 Pace

(2) SUNSHINE INN ships in from Saratoga off a clunker, but she had two solid performances prior to that. Skowyra is a pretty sharp trainer, and she adds Napolitano in the bike. (4) WOODMERE OLEKSIAK gained some ground in the final quarter last Sunday to finish fourth. She remains at the bottom level, and you have to think is going to win one of these times. (5) TRAFFIC JAM is winless in 2020 like many of these but has hit the board in two of her last three and has Tyler Buter to drive again.

Race 10 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(5) ROLLING WITH SAM ran into the talented Sombodyitreasure at Harrah's Philadelphia, so that second-place finish to him looks pretty good, and he did win at Pocono during the summer. (3) SCOOTNROLL is likely the one to beat given his undefeated record and facile wins against NW2's at both Tioga and Pocono. He's another contender out of the Hallett barn on this card. (6) TREVOR ONE gets another shot against NW4's after winning by a nostril last Sunday. He went off as the favorite in that event, but you're likely going to get a much better price this time.

Race 11 - F&M NW9000L5 / NW6/70000LT Pace

(4) ALEXIS FAITH found her form in those easy spots at Vernon and was ready to roll last week at Pocono. I'll take her again tonight on the class hike with Simon Allard going into the bike. (2) CLEAR IDEA won the last time she got to race against NW6000L5's at Pocono on the 2nd of August and starts from an inside post this time. (6) GRANT ME THIS has just a single win this year but has hit the board in her last five races and nearly stole that one on the lead last Sunday.

Race 12 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(2) WARRAWEE VELOCE just came up a nostril short of winning last Sunday against Trevor One. I expect him to be on the lead again and to be pretty tough. (1) BEN ROCKIN draws inside for the first time since July here and was Napolitano's choice. He kicked home with a good final quarter a week ago to gain a few positions. (7) LIVE LUCKY finished a gaining fourth in that same race that Warrawee Veloce was in seven days ago. He has just a two-for-21 win record, but I think can be used in tris and supers.

Race 13 - NW4/50000LT Trot

(7) SIR CROMWELL looks like he might have an affinity for Pocono as he has won in his last two tries here. This is his first crack at the NW4 class, but I'll give him a shot. (1) KYRIE DEO finished second in the NJ Sire Stakes final at Freehold after a good try against the red-hot Kasha V. He definitely likes to finish as a runner-up more than he does win, so I'm not going to take a short price. (3) PEMBROKE YOYO scratched out a scheduled appearance at Northfield Park, so he enters this race tonight off a win at The Meadows most recently. Trainer Scott Betts is having a strong year, winning at nearly a 20 percent clip.

Race 14 - F&M NW3000L5 Pace

(8) PASSPORT HANOVER shifts back over to Pocono this time after racing at Yonkers in her last three. She hasn't won this year, but trainer Scott Blackler has been pretty hot over at Yonkers, and this is a spot where she could wake up. (2) CASIE'S BELIEVER gets a third chance against NW3000L5's after finishing third from first-over a week ago. I think she's a contender as long as she remains in this class. (7) MOVE OVER SIS was the runner-up in that race that Casie's Believer competed in last Sunday and was Napolitano's choice of a pair.