Pocono: Analysis for Sunday 10/18

MEET STATS: 59 - 224 / $329.20 (-$118.80)
BEST BETS: 10 - 16 / $29.60 (-$2.40)
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 16 / $33.40 (+$1.40)
BEST BET - HOT SUMMER KNIGHT (9th)
SPOT PLAY - URBANA BAYAMA (6th)

Race 1 - 10000-12500CLM HCP Pace

(8) FERNADO took one shot against better claimers last Sunday and now returns to the level of his win two back. Napolitano didn't stick with him, but he gets a suitable replacement with Kakaley. (3) SWEET TALKIN SATIN has hit the board in five of his last six against $10,000 claiming company both locally and down at Harrah's Philadelphia and could add some value underneath. (6) ASCARYONE HANOVER picked up a new lifetime mark in that win last Sunday. The key seems to be putting him on or near the lead since all of his recent wins have come that way, and he retained Napolitano's services.

Race 2 - F&M 10000-12500CLM HCP Pace

(3) NORTHERN SWIFT got cooked in a wicked early pace for these types last Sunday and predictably tired. I will hope for a smoother journey and a better price this week. (1) SUN BELLE SLIPPERY just missed by a nostril from post eight a week ago and moves to the pole position tonight. Napolitano was listed but opted elsewhere, so Matt Kakaley takes over the driving. (7) ALWAYS BE LUCY got parked at every call last week but didn't tire until late in the lane. She's another one who will be looking for an improved trip tonight.

Race 3 - NW3000L5 Trot

(5) TW LAUXMONT entered this race on Tuesday morning and then won a NW3000L5 later that day. He gets another crack in the bottom class tonight and might look to take advantage since he'll have to step up now anyway. (3) DYNAMIC EDGE slides down from the NW6000L5's after cutting the mile and finishing fourth last Sunday. He should be one of the main dangers in here. (1) KANDY KORN should be the hunch play given the Halloween season we're coming up on, and he has finished second and fourth in his last two tries, so he's not without a chance.

Race 4 - 7500CLM Pace

(5) MYSTERY ISLAND didn't have the easiest of trips a week ago but did end up finishing second. He has an improved post tonight and gets reunited with Kakaley, who steered him to his last victory on 9-28. (7) R GAUWITZ HANOVER now has two straight wins after he repeated last Sunday and has shown the ability to score both from well off-the-pace and closer to the speed. (1) NEEDLESS TO SAY finished third as the favorite when he dropped down to this level last week. He remains in against $7,500 claimers and should offer a better price.

Race 5 - 10000-12500CLM HCP Trot

(3) NOBLE PRIZE took plenty of wagering attention last Sunday but then broke early. I think he's worth another chance given the way he finished in the last quarter, and he was Napolitano's choice. (2) MEETMEINTHEMIDDLE won the event my top pick exits and is in good form with two victories and a second in his last four. (8) CASH FOR GOLD aimed very high in his return to the Pellegrino barn on 10-10. This a much more reasonable class tonight, as he had two seconds and two wins against these types prior to that.

Race 6 - 7500CLM Pace

(1) URBANA BAYAMA closed in 27 4/5 two back at Monticello against their optional $10,000 claimers and made up some ground in the last quarter in an amateur race at the Meadowlands after that. I expect him to have some value and will use in this wide-open looking race. (6) DAFINATY did the hard work from first-over last Sunday and wound up second after being out-kicked by the in-form R Gauwitz Hanover. He was Napolitano's choice of two in here. (2) REGAL HOPE beat $12,500 claimers as recently as 8-31 but has not scored since. He lands at the bottom claiming level tonight and picks up Matt Kakaley.

Race 7 - NW3000L5 Trot

(8) CASA PALMERA came in third twice against better down at Harrah's Philadelphia and was in the NW9000L5 class when last seen locally. Her one win this year was against NW10000L5's at Yonkers, so she is definitely capable of winning at the bottom level. (5) TURVILLE HANOVER is another Jackson trainee, like TW Lauxmont earlier, who entered this event Tuesday morning and then raced well in a NW3000L5 on Tuesday evening (finished second). He'll look to build on that. (1) WALK THE FLOOR got some wagering notice a week ago but broke and lost all chance. His qualifier was pretty good prior to that, so if he's able to maintain his gait, he could definitely threaten these.

Race 8 - 7500CLM Pace

(3) SPRINGBRIDGE PROUD drops a notch after crushing better claimers last week. That has me a bit curious, but unless he's way off, he's just simply faster than these. (6) SPECTACULAR ROCK enters with back-to-back second-place efforts against $7,500 claimers, and I'll slot him in that position again. (4) LITTLE ADMIRAL was in a $12,500 claimer when last at Pocono back in July and comes in off a gaining fourth-place finish in the corresponding class to this one at The Meadows.

Race 9 - NW6001L5 Trot

(4) HOT SUMMER KNIGHT squeezes into this class by the one extra dollar the race office used to make it a NW $6,001 last five. He recently beat NW9000L5 at Pocono, so he should find this group to his liking. (7) ABBIE'S CELTICLASS was one I used last week but she came up sick. I'll hope she's still fit with the extra week off since this is an easier level than she's been facing. (2) ARCHIBALD scored over NW6000L5's two back and returns to it here after one attempt against better.

Race 10 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(2) DIAMOND HEAD topped NW3's in comfortable fashion down at Harrah's Philadelphia a week ago, and the connections thought enough of him to take him out to the Little Brown Jug last month. I think he should be a bit of a price, and I'll give him a shot. (4) BILLY LINCOLN N has a win and a second in his last pair, and draws inside of (7) SCOOTNROLL, who turned the tables on him last Sunday to win in a lifetime mark.

Race 11 - F&M NW3000L5 Pace

(8) MELANIE'S FILLY was second two back against NW5000L5's at Yonkers, and even though she draws outside, she did pick up her season's mark at Pocono, and I'll look for a price in this wide-open event. (4) ELENIARK A showed improvement in her second start for Brabrook at Harrah's Philadelphia, finishing fourth, and will look to build on that here. (1) ROCK N ROLL BABE hung around to finish third in a pretty good edition of this class two Sundays ago and gets the rail here to help her get another inside journey.

Race 12 - NW4/50000LT Trot

(5) PEMBROKE YOYO wound up getting shuffled in the third quarter last week when the pace-setter stopped in front of him. He did close well after getting out, so I'll go back to him here, especially since he owns a prior win at the level. (4) MAGNIFICENT SEVEN defeated NW2's at Pocono in handy fashion on 9-1 and raced well at Yonkers after that. (2) BEERTHIRTY K had a good enough season in New York to make the sire stakes final and gets a chance to race on a bigger oval after being at Yonkers in his last three.

Race 13 - NW4/50000LT Pace

(3) GOLD STAR YODER has Napolitano in the bike again this week and held third after a first-over trip last Sunday. Nobody in this field is a win machine, so maybe he can upset them. (7) JAHAN HANOVER will probably be the favorite and will look for a better trip than seven nights ago when he had to do the first-up work against Scootnroll. (1) SUNSETBOOZECRUISE moves inside after starting from the seven-hole and did show the ability to hit the board against NW5's down at Harrah's Philadelphia.

Race 14 - F&M NW4/50000LT Pace

(4) MADDELLE finished a good second against NW4's two back and then had little chance two weeks ago when starting from post nine. She draws a much better post tonight and switches pilots to Marcus Miller. (3) TALK SHOW CHICA is another one with some post relief, and she owns two prior wins over NW4's at Pocono. (2) PAIGE'S GIRL is lightly-raced but has shown talent as she already has a victory in the NW3 class at Harrah's Philadelphia. I expect Lachance will sit her in and have her closing.