Pocono: Analysis for Saturday 9/5

MEET STATS: 42 - 140 / $205.50 (-$74.50)
BEST BETS: 6 - 10 / $12.80 (-$5.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 10 / $4.60 (-$15.40)
BEST BET - WESTERN FAME (7th)
SPOT PLAY - CRUNCH HANOVER (10th)

Race 1 - NW12000L5 / NW7 or 80000LT Trot

(5) ROCK OF CASHEL wound up in a race on August 22 that went in a very fast time for this level. He draws an ideal mid-pack post for his racing style here and owns a previous win over NW12000L5's on 7-18. (4) RIVER OTTER returns to Pocono after finishing second and third in two appearances at Harrah's Philadelphia. He was a solid second in this class on August 1. (6) NO DRAMA PLEASE continues to work his way down the class ladder. He's been struggling since making a break in the Hambletonian Maturity back in July at the Meadowlands, but is a wake-up candidate, I think. He also picks up Tim Tetrick in the bike this time.

Race 2 - 25000CLM Pace

(7) JINS SHARK won in his debut for trainer Mike Palone at Pocono on the 15th of August and then closed well from post eight at The Meadows in a subsequent start. I think he might offer some continued value and will put on top in a competitive race. (4) BELLOWS BINGE gets a driver change to George Napolitano Jr. and slides down from the $30,000 claiming handicap level. I wouldn't be surprised to see an improved performance. (3) JEREMES GENERAL finished second as the favorite last Saturday when he dropped to the $25,000 claimers and will likely get plenty of notice with the addition of Tetrick in the sulky.

Race 3 - PA Sire Stakes Consolation 2YO C&G Trot

(3) BACARDI has been at the sire stakes level all season and probably has done the best out of this bunch, including showing a second back in July to In Range. He's won at Pocono before, too. (7) JACK FIRE was fourth in the sire stakes at Pocono on August 23 and also has a prior victory over the track back on 7-28. That was an impressive performance as he made front easily from post nine and won by 14 lengths. (6) TO BE FRANK lacks a win thus far in his 2-year-old campaign but was a decent fourth in a sire stakes race won by Captain Corey most recently and could offer a bit of a price underneath.

Race 4 - NW17500L5 / NW8 or 90000LT Pace

(9) IDEAL FEELING ships north from Harrah's Philadelphia after beating their NW14000L5 class. This horse is capable of big miles both off-the-pace and on the lead, as evidenced by his fast marks each of the last two years, and I'll hope Tetrick has the winning strategy from the outside post. (3) KINNDER JACKSON was also victorious at the NW14000L5 level at Harrah's Philadelphia most recently. He gets George Napolitano Jr. today, so I imagine he'll be involved early and maybe on the lead. (2) BRANQUINHO has gotten along well with driver Tom Jackson and won for him on the 22nd of August. He remains in against NW17500L5's here and is certainly logical.

Race 5 - PA Sire Stakes Consolation 2YO Filly Pace

(2) FIRE START HANOVER seems to be heading the right direction for trainer Nifty Norman. She took an overnight race at Pocono on July 28 and then followed that up with a good effort against sire stakes foes where she was third-placed-second. (1) MACKIE HANOVER finished up well after getting shuffled back to come in third in her sire stakes debut on 8-26 at The Meadows. David Miller gets another shot with her here after getting to know her in that most recent performance. (7) SNIPER HANOVER is the King Jr. trainee Tetrick will drive in this race since he co-owns her. She broke her maiden down at Harrah's Philadelphia on the 28th of August, and that might have given her some confidence after some unsuccessful sire stakes tries.

Race 6 - PA Sire Stakes Consolation 2YO Filly Trot

(4) DIFFIDENT backed up pretty badly in that last start out at The Meadows, but she did win at Pocono earlier this summer, and maybe Napolitano Jr. can fire her up in his first try with her. (6) ABOVE THE CLOUDS isn't entirely reliable as you can see by the breaks in her lines, but when she does trot she's capable, as evidenced by that third in the sire stakes two back or her prior overnight win here. I'll hope she minds her manners. (3) MAY KARP has enjoyed her time in the PA Stallion Series as she's won two straight. I think this is probably a little tougher group, and I'm unwilling to take a short price on her.

Race 7 - NW12000L5 Pace

(8) WESTERN FAME recently switched barns to Mark Silva's and won in his second start for him. This horse has a whole pile of back-class, so I think he's well-spotted and can wire these. (4) FRANCO TOTEM N closed well to score a fourth-place finish at this level in his last start. He's won his share over at the Meadowlands in the last couple years for the Dunn/Norman driver/trainer tandem, and they partner up here. (6) DECLAN SEELSTER drops down from the NW17500L5 group where he was a gaining third last Saturday and gets a driver change to David Miller.

Race 8 - PA Sire Stakes Consolation 2YO C&G Pace

(2) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH might have looked usable in the final had he made it as he comes off a win and a third, but unfortunately for his connections he has to settle for the consolation. He looks like the one to beat, and I will put on top. (6) CAPT JACK HANOVER finished second to Abuckabett Hanover in the sire stakes here at Pocono two back, and that horse went on to win a Grand Circuit event up in Canada in his next appearance. Tetrick's had him positioned near the front recently, and I think he'll try that again. (8) SUMMA CUM LAUDE has been a bit disappointing since finishing second in the sire stakes and PA All-Stars back in July. He won at the Meadowlands the one time on the lead, and maybe Kakaley tries to blast from the outside post.

Race 9 - PA Sire Stakes Championship 2YO C&G Trot

(3) CAPTAIN COREY continues to be the most impressive rookie trotter I've seen racing thus far in 2020. He's been dominant in all three of his starts thus far, and I expect another victory in the Championship. (4) IN RANGE hasn't met up with Captain Corey yet, but that changes here. He's done absolutely nothing wrong, winning four times in five starts, and this will be a rare chance to get a price on him if you think he can knock off my top pick. (1) TYPE A won in the sire stakes back in July and was second-best to Captain Corey on 8-23 here at Pocono. He might be able to work out an inside trip from the pylons and follow along for a share.

Race 10 - PA Sire Stakes Championship 2YO C&G Pace

(3) CRUNCH HANOVER posted a pair of overnight wins over the oval earlier this year and has been competitive against the sire stakes colts and geldings. I loved the way he finished up at The Meadows after shaking loose and his post draw here and will give him a chance at what should hopefully be a price. (8) ALWAYS A MIKI won an All-Stars race and a sire stakes leg at Pocono, so this might be his preferred venue. I certainly respect his chances and connections, but I'll hope he has to work a bit from post eight and try and beat him. (6) BAYFIELD BEACH couldn't get involved from post nine in his last sire stakes try at The Meadows but still closed with interest to finish fourth. He won in the sire stakes back in July at Harrah's Philadelphia and really hasn't done anything wrong since. He picks up the hot hands of Andrew McCarthy and could offer value in tris and supers.

Race 11 - PA Sire Stakes Championship 2YO Filly Trot

(6) INSTA GLAM returned to her winning ways last time at Harrah's Philadelphia. Other than the break at the Meadowlands where she appeared to just have an off day, she's started her career in fine form, and hopefully it continues. (4) FLAWLESS COUNTRY has won three straight and just missed in her two other chances. Can't knock her, and she's definitely a big threat. (3) GIMME SHELTER is another one in sharp form, having taken four out of her last five. Dexter Dunn took over driving her at Harrah's Philadelphia and is back in the bike today.

Race 12 - PA Sire Stakes Championship 2YO Filly Pace

(2) MARSALA HANOVER inherited that win here at Pocono on August 10 through a placing, but showed that was no fluke by coming back to win impressively from post seven at The Meadows. In that second-placed-first effort two back, she was only a length behind the impressive Caviart Audrey, who shipped up to Canada and dominated in a Grand Circuit contest. (4) GRACE HILL has won three of four, with her only defeat coming at the Meadowlands to the above-mentioned Caviart Audrey. (6) CONTINUALOU has a win and a second, beaten by just a nose, when she's been driven by Joe Bongirono, and he gets back in the sulky here for the Championship.

Race 13 - NW6/73000LT Pace

(8) CAVIART ROCKLAND may have needed that last start a week ago since he'd been idle for just over a month. He gets on a regular rotation tonight and has Andrew McCarthy to drive again, and hopefully he'll be able to finish one spot higher. (2) J M MANDAMIN shifts back to the NW6 group after a win in a NW9000L5 most recently. He's in sharp form for the Bongiornos and definitely looks usable. (3) LYING IN CASH finished third in that same race that Caviart Rockland comes out of. He wound up with David Miller's services at scratch time, and he piloted him to a second against NW14000L5's at Harrah's Philadelphia in early August.

Race 14 - NW12000L5 Pace

(8) DEALT A WINNER gets some class relief in this spot from recent appearances. He wired a group of NW17500L5's at Pocono on July 11, and I'll hope that's Napolitano Jr.'s plan here. (6) JOESSTAR OF MIA A also drops off a rallying third against NW17500L5's. He did win in that class on the 8th of August, so at even a lower level than that, he certainly looms a threat. (2) DREAMS BEACHBOY loses Napolitano Jr.'s services, but I don't mind him picking up David Miller, and he finished with interest in that mile last Saturday.