Pocono Downs

Pocono: Analysis for Saturday 8/21

Derick Giwner|Aug 19, 2021

BEST BET: NO LOU ZING (13th)

SPOT PLAY: SUMMA CUM LAUDE (2nd)

Race 1: Non-winners $12,000 in last 5 - Pick 4

(5) QUALITY BUD was a $700 sale purchase and has gone on to win almost $290K. That's impressive! Simon tends to drive this guy aggressively and he should be sitting first or second with a big shot. (4) OLLIE’S Z TAM is a lock to fire off the gate but doesn't like to pass horses. I suppose if he's on the lead he could go all the way. (1) TULHURSTSANTANNA A is interesting on the driver change angle alone. (3) PATERNITY SUIT A won in this class two starts back and can clearly win with a decent trip.

Race 2: $100,000 Max Hempt - Consolation II

(8) SUMMA CUM LAUDE seems like a worthwhile risk despite the bad post. His Cane Pace effort was his best of 2021 and perhaps trainer Ron Burke has finally gotten him back to his 2020 form; big price here. (4) HIGHLANDSBEACHSBEST scratched sick out of a race where I thought he had a big shot. Now, having missed three weeks, I'm a bit hesitant to back him unless he looks good on the track and offers fair value. (3) LOU'S PEARLMAN also comes off a scratch line. He was supposed to race on Lasix in that spot but isn't listed on it today. Check the change board to see if it was an oversight.

[DRF BETS: Wager on today's Pocono Downs card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: Non-winners $22,500 in last 5 or 10 races or $150,000 life

(1) WES DELIGHT chased last time through the second-fastest three-quarter time in history while coming off a six-week layoff. That mile should have him tight and ready on the class drop. (6) VETTEL N did the heavy lifting through some fast fractions last time. This level is his comfort zone. (2) SERIOUSLY HANOVER is certainly sharp, but his barn basically couldn't lose on Hambo Day and he has shown breaking issues. I would pass at a shorter price.

Race 4: $125,000 Delmonica Hanover - Consolation I

(6) EVENING STROLL and (1) DAZZLING REIGN have been the most consistent fillies in the field. They should come away forwardly placed and have a big shot to win. It is worth noting that Callahan chose (2) CHABLIS over my top pick. Chablis is really not as bad as her 0-for-18 record suggests. She's going to break through one day soon. (8) AUNT IRENE has the ability to win but the post won’t make it easy for her.

Race 5: $125,000 James Lynch - Consolation I

(3) MACKIE HANOVER should have no issue making the front and he should be sitting no worse than second here with a big shot to win. (4) ODDS ON WHITNEY has done her best work closer to the front and a change of tactics seems likely here. (2) JK ALWAYSBALADY raced well last time and Yannick Gingras jumping in the bike is a nice plus, but it will come with a short price. (5) NASHVILLE ELGENNA looks to be on par with the top three but might be at a tactical disadvantage with two early speed horses to her inside.

Race 6: $200,000 Earl Beal Jr. Memorial - Consolation I - Pick 4

There really are no reliable options that make me feel confident. While (8) CARUSO is prone to breaks and has drawn the worst post, he is the fastest horse in the race and could easily wire this field if he behaves. (1) CAPSTONE doesn't make mistakes and should be sitting close to the action. Those are definite positives against this crew and he comes with an entrymate (FLY LIGHT) who is picking up Dexter Dunn. (2) ZENITH STRIDE looks like the potential favorite off a good try versus a can't-lose horse last time. Ask yourself, do I want to bet this horse as the favorite with breaks all over his PPs and a 1-for-11 record in 2021?

Race 7: $200,000 Max Hempt Memorial - Consolation I

(7) BILLY CLYDE took a conservative approach in the Cane and the result was a steady effort for fourth. Down in class today and in against softer foes, Mark MacDonald should be firing hard off the gate with a big win chance. (2) GAMBLIN MO perked up with Lasix added last time and seems worth consideration. (1) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH has only finished worse than second once in eight starts this year. (5) MYSWEETBOYMAX will take a lot more money now after a solid second in the Milstein, but I'd rather pass on a horse that is going to rely on the pace scenario.

Race 8: $75,000 Sebastian K Invitational - Pick 5

This race came up extremely tough. (3) READY FOR MONI has been riddled with bad luck of late. His lack of early speed is a concern, but for $75,000, if he makes a quick brush he's likely to be allowed the lead. I'll take a shot with him in a race where the major competition are all mares. (1) WHEN DOVESCRY has a big tactical edge here in terms of early speed if Dave Miller elects to use it. (5) ATLANTA is clearly the horse to beat and if Gingras puts her on the lead the race is probably over, but I see more patient tactics coming. She isn't worth the odds-on price in this spot.

Race 9: $250,000 James Lynch Memorial

The undefeated run of (9) HOT MESS EXPRESS will certainly be tested here from post 9, but great horses overcome all obstacles. Is she a great horse? Time will tell. Expect her to float away here as others leave hard and either make a quick move to the front or look for live cover. (7) BLUE DIAMOND EYES has impressed me in her last few starts. It looks like trainer Ron Burke has her in perfect form. (5) GRACE HILL has come into her own lately. A win here wouldn't shock me. (4) FIRE START HANOVER sat last at 1-9 last time out and really handed a tough pill to the bettors. She's a player but her second-place finishes have me concerned.

Race 10: $250,000 Delmonica Hanover

(5) DARLENE HANOVER came up a bit flat late in the Hambletonian Oaks, but that was to be expected without Lasix. The medication returns now and I'm expecting a career-best performance against one of the softer fields she has seen in a few starts. (2) YOU ATO DREAM raced well from an impossible spot in the Oaks and now gets a much better draw, though post 1 isn't ideal to show early speed from. She's probably the horse to beat here and a must-use on your tickets. (4) MAZZARATI did the heavy lifting and came up just short last time. Tetrick opted off #7 to drive her and that is a nice sign of confidence.

Race 11: $300,000 Max Hempt Memorial - Pick 4

(4) PERFECT STING has yet to miss the board in 2021 but has burned a bunch of betting dollars along the way. I smell an off-the-pace mile coming this week and that could make a big difference. (6) HELLABALOU deserves some respect at this point but seems unlikely to get bet heavily at the windows. The scratch to his inside is a big plus. (1) LAWLESS SHADOW will be firing hard from the inside off the gate and would be no surprise in here.

Race 12: $300,000 Earl Beal Jr. Memorial

I have no idea what happened to (6) JOHAN PALEMA in the Hambletonian eliminations, but I have every bit of confidence he'll be heading to the front in this spot and at worst wind up in the pocket. The value should be there to see if he can upset stablemate (1) CAPTAIN COREY, who rolled down the road in the Hambletonian without shoes. Will he wear them today? Either way, he's not going down easily. (7) SONOFAMISTERY was flat as a pancake in the stretch in the Hambletonian. He's fast enough if right.

Race 13: Non-winners $18,000 in last 5 or 8 races or $100,000 life

(5) NO LOU ZING gets the class relief he needs and should take this field to task. (4) J M MANDAMIN will gun to the front and is the obvious main threat. (2) IM A GIGOLO N and (1) ROCKIE GOT FRAMED are sharp enough to get a good piece of the exotics.

Race 14: $75,000 Always B Miki Invitational

(2) NICHOLAS BEACH should be handled aggressively off the gate here and set the pace. The short stretch figures to make him difficult to beat. (1) BACKSTREET SHADOW keeps putting in quality effort after quality effort. He's a major threat here if the top pick is anything short of perfect. (8) ALLYWAG HANOVER has really proven himself over the last few weeks. Can he overcome the post with some very fast horses on the inside of the gate? (6) RUTHLESS HANOVER gets another new driver. Do we see early speed tonight? That's where he has done his best work.