Playable horses abound in Thanksgiving Classic

Many morning-line makers approach their work conservatively. They keep projected prices within a narrow band, which leads to tepid morning-line favorites always bound to go off at much shorter odds. But the conservative line in the Thanksgiving Classic, where six of the seven entrants are listed between 3-1 and 6-1, seems like the proper prediction.

There’s nothing close to a defined on-paper favorite in the $125,000 Thanksgiving Classic, a six-furlong dirt sprint Thursday at Fair Grounds. Heart Rhythm is the 3-1 morning favorite. Maybe he will be, maybe he won’t, but the larger point: Expect to be decently paid if you land on the Thanksgiving winner.

Heart Rhythm’s form doesn’t get one’s heart pounding. The 4-year-old by Flat Out has been claimed three times during a 21-start career, first for $30,000, then for $50,000, and in September for $100,000 by owner TEC Racing and trainer John Ortiz. Heart Rhythm made $86,000 of that back winning an Oct. 19 Keeneland allowance race. His 96 Beyer Speed Figure marked a career-best, but has Heart Rhythm hit a new level, or will he regress toward his career mean Thursday?

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The 3-year-old Chattalot finished last behind Heart Rhythm at Keeneland yet might hold greater appeal in the Thanksgiving. Keeneland’s main track was deep and laboring during October, and Chattalot fought on the lead with even-money favorite Prevalance while returning from a seven-month layoff. Both pace players finished at the back of a short field, but here, Chattalot threatens to shake loose on an uncontested lead. About a year ago, he won the Sugar Bowl Stakes and a high-level allowance race in his only two starts over the Fair Grounds dirt. Off the poor recent performance and while getting weight from older rivals, now might be the time to play Chattalot.

Trainer Al Stall won this race in 2019 with Bobby’s Wicked One and in 2016 and 2017 with Yockey’s Warrior, and this year he’ll try a filly in Carribean Caper. Carribean Caper opened her career going 5 for 5 last year, but 2022 has been far from perfect. Early this season, Carribean Caper was prone to tying up in the morning, forcing a scratch from an intended comeback race in the spring and delaying her 2022 debut until August. Fourth in a Colonial Downs stakes in August first time back, Carribean Caper hasn’t started since and shows a workout gap of 28 days during October. Still, she’s not impossible from just off the pace.

Surveillance, an improved horse after being gelded last fall, left Fair Grounds this past spring on a three-race winning streak, two over the Fair Grounds dirt. He comes into the Thanksgiving with a seven-race losing streak and is back on short rest, having finished fifth Nov. 13 in the Bet On Sunshine at Churchill.

Ready to Pounce beat Surveillance in September, and while he won an off-turf allowance race at Fair Grounds going 5 1/2 furlongs last season, seven furlongs to one mile appears to be Ready to Pounce’s sweet spot.

The 100 Beyer that Long Weekend earned in a Feb. 21 Fair Grounds victory remains a career outlier, and he wired the field that day over a surface heavily biased toward front-runners.

The outside-drawn Simply Wicked is the one horse in the first open stakes of the Fair Grounds meet who simply looks too slow to win.

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