Pimlico: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 17, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

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Race 9

Gallorette Handicap by Michael Hammersly

So who said you can’t teach an old dog a new trick?

From day 1 SOMALI LEMONADE was a closer. We’re not just talking that she came from just off the pace. No, she would lag way back and make a big run. It worked on occasion and hinted at big things (she rallied for 2nd beaten just a head in the Grade 1 Garden City on turf at BEL in September 2012) but more often than not she was like that driver who stepped on the gas late only to get you to the airport just in time to see your plane taking off.

But things have changed. The first hint came last July when she STALKED the pace (albeit a very slow) and finished well to win a Grade 3 at PRX. Some speed was shown, too, in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Trainer Michael Matz added blinkers for her first start this year, the Grade 3 Marshua’s River at GP Jan. 4 and that resulted in more early focus – and more late focus. She stalked in 3rd (and the pace was decent), made a smart run to grab the lead by midstretch and finished a good 2nd to sharp winner Naples Bay.

It looked as though they were on to something. They were. Brought back in an N3X on the KEE turf April 13 she went right to the lead. These were phony splits, either as she set a solid pace for the mile event. What’s more, from her position up front she blew the race wide open with a strong run into the lane, opening up a three-length lead. A couple closers narrowed the gap but the issue had already been put to bed. She won by 1 1/4 lengths.

This newfound speed is most appealing. This isn’t to say she’s now some speedball or need-the-lead type. Far from it. What it does mean, though, is she can be in a good spot from the start and that she is no longer completely reliant on pace and traffic and racing luck. She can be well positioned to stalk if someone proves quicker, or, as the KEE race showed, can take up the mantle and control things if they so desire.

A bullet work at FAI May 4 says she’s feeling good and holding her edge. And her price should be more than palatable, likely in the 4-1/9-2 range.

WATSDACHANCES was second the 2012 Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (to Euro beast Flotilla) so big things were expected in 2013. Well, she ran decently (three-time Grade 2-placed, rallying 4th in the Grade 1 Garden City Sept. 14) but couldn’t quite get over the hump. She dropped in class and rallied from well back to win a stakes on the AQU sod Nov. 9. But then came the end to the New York turf season so she was put away and makes her first start since. She’s got loads of quality and while she rallied from well back in her last couple outings there have been other efforts where she was effective from just off the pace so she’s not some one-dimensional deep closer. She is stuck on the far outside but there is a bit of a run before they get to the clubhouse turn for rider Javier Castellano to get her over and not get hung out to dry.

STRATHNAVER has won at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/2 miles so she can handle any trip. She finished smartly to be 3rd in the Grade 3 My Charmer on the CRC sod Dec. 7 (beaten less than a length). She got some time off (four months) came back in the Grade 3 Doubledogdare on KEE’s Polytrack, had a brutal post (No. 10), bided her time and finished smartly for 4th. That race should set her up nicely for this and while she certainly handled the synthetic well this (turf) still figures her preferred footing.

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Race 10

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Race 11

Dixie Stakes by Marty McGee

This is a fascinating renewal of the Dixie, which most likely will stay on the grass (along with the other Sat. Pim stakes) despite quite a bit of rain here Friday morning. The M/L fave is Hey Leroy (#6), and his ascent into peak form is undeniable, but he might actually be a one-track pony (GP). With all the other alluring alternatives in here, we’ll definitely try to beat him.

If you don’t want to use the Dixie as a key event in a multi-race wager route (which might actually be preferable, especially if you have a strong Preakness opinion), then let’s line them up vertically by considering decent price plays such as Nutello (#2), who likely needed his last; Charming Kitten (#3), just plain solid at this level for TAP and Johnny V.; Roadhog (#4), a huge effort off the bench for underrated E.Merryman; Chamois (#7), who will be as ready as any of ‘em when coming out of mothballs for one C.Clement; Up With the Birds (#8), the Canadian HOY who stands to benefit in a big way from that Kee comebacker; and Utley (#9), the class-proven Sheppard stalwart who makes the third start in his form cycle.

The play: To box all 6 of these in a 50-cent tri would cost $60, which seems prohibitive, so if you’d rather key 2 or 3 of them to reduce the cost of the tickets, then the “leans” from this corner are Nutello, Chamois, and Utley. Let’s get lucky here because this race will be worth cashing on.

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Race 12

Preakness Stakes by Marcus Hersh

Don’t have much to add to all the handicapping discussion regarding the Preakness, and feel a little stupid as a devout chalk-opposer siding with the odds-on favorite CALIFORNIA CHROME, who, as has been widely documented by reasonable observers, is on a grand run of great racing luck. He also has a potentially difficult draw, and if things don’t go write, could end up in behind horses for the first time in several races. And being in-behind has not worked out well for the colt before.

And yet the opinion remains that he’s going to win. I don’t think any of the new players are good enough to beat him, barring really bad luck, and in my mind, there’s just little doubt that California Chrome, this week at Pimlico at least, is a better horse than Ride On Curlin and General A Rod, the two other Derby horses.

The Derby doesn’t appear to have drained him. His weight looks good, his coat looks good, he’s galloping well – holes like that just aren’t visible. He might not be a great Derby winner, but everything is relative, right?

I do believe there’s a wide range of pace possibilities here: A 46.01 half wouldn’t surprise me, nor would a 47.83. Everyone talks of SOCIAL INCLUSION and BAYERN as the main speed players, but if these two are the main speeds, the pace could well turn tepid. Social Inclusion, recall, does have an off switch, and he displayed it slowing down the pace in his allowance-race win over Honor Code. Bayern is blinkers off, with his trainer talking about running at a target and not leading this time.

Even with a fast pace, Social Inclusion could run big, and if I were the Cal Chrome camp, that would be the only horse I fear. He has brilliance and upside, and had a very good work here Monday. Social Inclusion could turn out to be a miler type, but the Preakness tends to play shorter than its actual 9.5-furlong distance. Many of the best-performance “new shooters” have come out of one-turn races, and while Social Inclusion exits the Wood, he’s that kind of speed-leaning horse.

RUDE ON CURLIN has a great chance to get into the trifecta, and the wide draw shouldn’t prove that much a hindrance. He’s better than his Derby run and has made a favorable physical impression this week.

DYNAMIC IMPACT really got whacked at the draw landing the rail. He won the Illinois Derby from post 1, but his rider said the colt never got comfortable until he was switched to the outside for the stretch run, and extricating himself from the inside in this spot will be dicey. I think he’s capable of getting a piece, but I downgraded him after the draw.

Never thought GENERAL A ROD was in the elite of the division, and don’t like his draw at all. Not using. Same with KID CRUZ. I’ve looked pretty closely at a lot of years’ worth of Preakness charts the last couple weeks, and one thing has come clear: Deep closers like Kid Cruz don’t get it done. And if you actually pay attention to what the trainer says, this race – believe it or not – is a prep for the Belmont. RING WEEKEND and RIA ANTONIA seem too slow. Ride on Curlin and Social Inclusion will land in the top slot in some of whatever I play, but I expect this trail to go on to Belmont with a Derby and Preakness winner going for the Triple Crown.

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Race 13

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