Pimlico: Closer Looks for May 16, 2014

Race 5

She's Ordained

She's ultra-consistent, a win-machine, and lost more ground than the margin of defeat last month when narrowly beaten by some of these same foes; has an especially strong record when breaking from the fence, an important finesse in a field of this quality; can reverse the recent decision.

Five Star Momma

Owns a very fine first gear and one of her better efforts was actually the placing 2 back when trying to match strides with the Amazon-like Groupie Doll; excellent workouts at her Gulfstream headquarters this month mandates her use in exotic wagers.

Lion D N A

Newcomer to this oval was in definite need of the last outing at the Big A when chasing a strong pace; must add 8 pounds from that loss but the switch to Castellano, who continues his hot hand, can make a huge difference; should be able to stay within calling distance.

Risky Rachel

Did not race in all of 2013 but began this year with a decisive score; recent workout activity over the Belmont training track is strong yet she lands into a field today that has all the makings of a graded stakes; will have to run the race of her life to defeat this caliber.

Merry Meadow

Will be inviting odds despite the changeover to a Hall of Fame rider; this filly has a near perfect in-the-money record and, following the failure in a G2, was given a freshening; the most recent half-mile breeze implies she may be able to obtain a striking, stalking position.

Munnings Sister

Prefers being up on, or close to, the lead and was taken out of her game in the last try at Aqueduct; not sure if she is good enough form to make the point against these ladies especially with the presence of Winning Image; very difficult assessment.

Red's Round Table

Closed with a rush to just miss a month ago, a very useful effort; a .500 lifetime hitter, she should benefit by the pace structure of this race which may finally enable her to turn the tables; no doubt will be a square price once again and is worth some follow-up if all the pure speed types remain in attendance.

Flattering Bea

Stalked and pounced at Charles Town in her latest tally but that was around 2 turns; scan down to her sole performance here at Pimlico and note the incredible effort when losing a photo while 52 to 1; a.m. activity suggests she has a particular fondness for this track.

Winning Image

Could be the main speed despite this outpost; tenacious runner can break a race open before the far turn and has won under this impost in the past; her major problem today is that she may encounter rivals who will prevent her from crossing over to the inside so easily; that early battle can prove to be the key to the outcome. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Governmentshutdown

This is a curious overnight stakes since the field is comprised of several maidens; this grey gelding was sharp in his maiden voyage when losing to some of these same opponents and then, with the blinker addition, graduated in style; his sire won a G2 stakes and 479K while the dam won 7 of 29 and 208K; this is her only foal to race.

Pret Say Eye

Game try in her debut last month; her sire won a G2 and 310K while the dam scored in 4 of 19 appearances earning 209K; among the winning siblings is 72K earner Tiz It; will more than likely fly under the betting radar once again.

Far Right

Two decent placings over different tracks and she lost serious ground in the most recent outing; her sire won a G2 and 733K while the dam involved was unraced; there are no winning siblings to mention; wheels back quickly and that recency edge should help her cause today.

Banksy

Lost valuable momentum in her debut when seeing the heels of Far Right; her sire won 669K including G2 success; the dam did not compete; there are no winning siblings to mention; latest workout is outstanding and she can surprise with an alert getaway.

Bessie's Boy

Bet down to 3 to 5, she was all-out in her maiden score over some of these same rivals; latest maintenance breeze at Keeneland suggests she has maintained her edge; the sire won a G1 sprint and 759K while the mom won 2 of 19 and 91K; winning sibs include 133K earner The Louisiana Kid.

Hootenanny

Survived early pressure and drew clear in her unveiling of a month ago; suggest cross-referencing the workouts of all 4 runners in this race trained by Ward; this colt's sire won multiple G1s and 2.23 million; the dam lost her only race; sib to 23K earner Love This Kitty.

Spanish Pipedream

Crushed her field first time out but got away unchallenged in that tally; the sire involved won multiple G1s and 1.33 million overall; the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; among the winning siblings is 13K earner Hookah Lady; a true contender.

Royalty Sea

Could not match strides with the favorite earlier this month but held her ground nicely; her sire won 3 of 7 attempts and 662K while the dam won 3 of 16 and 119K; among the winning siblings is 20K earner All About Karma; with a short run to the far turn, this outside slot remains a true concern. - Jim Kachulis

Race 9

Great Attack

There is a long layoff in play, and he was claimed away from the Ward barn out of his last start, but this G3 winner can put together a very strong five-furlongs over turf from off the pace on his best day, and this is an outfit that has been doing solid work with turf sprinters.

Smash and Grab

Willing to upgrade the chances of this minor stakes winner if this race has to be moved to the main track, but based on what he's done in his seven starts over turf, this is going to prove to be a difficult test for him; going to look toward others.

Bold Thunder

Five of his last seven starts have been sharp performaces sprinting over turf, including four wins and a stakes victory; don't like to see him without the services of Lopez today, but he's clearly capable of making noise in this spot if he brings his 'A' game to the table.

A P Elvis

Stakes placed veteran has shown the ability to jump up with a pretty sharp run on his best day, and his overall form sprinting over turf has been solid, but it is fair to question if his best effort is strong enough to handle the top contenders in here; perhaps a minor award is within reach, but going to look in another direction for the top spot.

This Ain't No Bull

He's four-for-four sprinting over turf and can't blame his connections for testing him in a spot like this, but he will have to be ready to take his game to another level to get over on the top contenders in this event; respect what's he's done while winning nine of 23 starts, but looking in another direction.

Wicked Tune

Multiple stakes winner can threaten for the top spot if he feels up to one of his better performances and the rider switch to Rosario might be a positive indicator as he's won with 6 of 10 mounts for this outfit in 2014; he brings a lot of early speed with him, but if someone in here decides to get overly aggressive from the gate, he's perfectly capable of employing rating tactics.

Spring to the Sky

He's a stakes winner sprinting on grass, and he ran well in this event last year, but he's light on winning form going back through 2013 and he's going to need to show up with an effort that earns him a career best Beyer Speed Figure to prove to be the one in this spot; like to see John V. get the call, but leaning in another direction for the top spot.

Ben's Cat

He's earned nearly $2 million the hard way and he's proven best in this event in 2011 and 2013; his first start of the year is a sign that he isn't planning on slowing down anytime soon and Pimental has won 17 of 26 times aboard this runner; obviously this race goes through him.

Agonistic

In a race where all but one of his rivals has earned a Beyer Speed Figure above 90, his best figure is an 81, and this late running type will have to see a complete pace meltdown in order to have a chance at being able to rally himself into the mix; he has the look of an outsider. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Joint Return

Nice turn of late foot did the trick last time and note place horse was well clear; toss the muddy debut and the only poor effort came in the other Grade 2 attempt when she just didn't seem to ever take a hold of the bit; filly can be her own worst enemy since she has limited speed and she was not flattered by the place horse in last, who returned last Saturday at Gulfstream and was third beaten 4 at 11-1 in a $90K stakes; will be in the picture late if at all.

America

Proven fresh, she is coming off her best stakes effort and is finally off the rail; she was somewhat flattered when the winner of the 2014 opener repeated in the Grade 1 Ashland with a 91 Beyer; and note a pair exited the Demoiselle to win next out; probably needs to cook up her best effort to get there.

Shanon Nicole

Eighth twice in the Graded appearances, she may have just hated the synthetic last time; winner of the FG finale took the FG Oaks next out and then won again in the Kentucky Oaks with a juicy 107 Beyer; she beat the smallish field in the lone win this year; respect barn but this miss has to hurry; Maker 1 for 21 the last 5 years with synthetic to dirt runners in a Graded stakes.

Stopchargingmaria

Fully extended in the 2013 closer, wonder if it just zapped her?; wide in both starts this year but she was also losing ground late; her style also may have not suited the Gulfstream strip and she did improve a bit last time; show horse in the Davona Dale beat rival on direct inside next out at Turfway, then was 9th at 42-1 in the KY Oaks; backers have to hope with the 2 races under her belt, she'll snap out of it.

Euphrosyne

Consistent as the day is long, she got an assist from the stewards two back but had no apparent excuse in last; best when sent along, but hard to see her clearing here; not exactly flattered by the place horse in the maiden breaker as that runner returned to run out of the money; like the series of drills coming to this race and the renewed energy in the move on the 5th; must be left in the mix.

Arethusa

Must prove she can win on dirt; miss needs help up front but there appears to be enough speed here to help the cause; the winner of this race last year, Fiftyshadesofhay, was also coming out of the SA Oaks where she had run 3rd with a 91 Beyer; place horse in last returned to split the field in the KY Oaks; things have to unfold just right.

La Mejor Fiesta

Ward 2 for 11 the last 5 years with synthetic to dirt runners in a Graded stakes and 4 ran second; she could be a bit fragile as the races have been spaced; in good hands, but she has turn the tables on the arch rival on the direct outside among others; not sure she was beating anybody in the 2013 closer; the place horse day has not raced back but the show horse 12/15 has been out of the money 4 times since; needs a rebound run.

Sloane Square

Lightly raced but talented, she has more speed than she just flashed and has trained forwardly for this; she has a right to get the distance; dam was a Grade 1 winner and proven router and full sister Bow Bells took a stakes at the shore at this very distance; look for Rosario to send hard and try to steal it.

Fortune Pearl

The obvious advantage is that she is the only runner in the field with a local win; and the place horse was clear by daylight that day; hung wide in her only poor effort, the 3/13 place horse cashed next out in a $25K optional at GP with a 77 Beyer; the hotter the pace the better for this youngster.

Vero Amore

Soph got good for a little over a month last year; handled by the rail in the inner strip finale, she was not disgraced against the boys two back but the winner that day returned to run a wide 5th in the Bay Shore; with a forecast leaning toward rain, note this miss ran her heart out in defeat in the mud in the Ruthless; one angle to think about: not this rider is 4 for 11 for Reid in the last year or so; has some things to prove.

Image of Anna

Once sent long, she became a new runner; she did settle just off the lead in last and it's nice to have options; she is looking at much more speed here and may have to adapt; she pretty much as outrun her pedigree so far as her dam lost 32 straight races and this is her first to race; her tactical speed could give her first run on the deep closers. - Brian Mulligan

Race 11

Stormy Novel

Draws the fence for the return to sprinting while, like all but 2 of these, making her first local start; filly was used in pace against graded stakes foes in the synthetic route try prior to the freshening and prior to that she showed that she's handy enough sit a good spot early sprinting; she spots the bigger ones in here a class edge, though, and will need to improve quite a bit to step with them today.

Raging Smoke

Consistent Pennsylvania bred has never been out of the exacta in 7 career spins and now she'll face her toughest test to date; she's been working regularly of late for her return from the brief time off and she does possess a style that should give her every shot to prove she's good enough to step with this kind; proven fresh, she's one to consider.

Inspired Say Eye

Switches surfaces after a weak effort against stakes runners in her return to the lawn here last month; the effort does figure to have sharpened her early lick and bit and she's shown what she's capable of doing when afforded the top to herself, but those scores came against much cheaper than she'll face here and the presence of other lick won't make things easy for her to get back on track.

Miss Behaviour

Got going too late while making her first start of the year in a slow paced local turf route and now she'll go back to her best game; G2 SW sprinter figures to be tighter with the effort behind her and should have little trouble securing a nice trip just off the pacesetters early here; she was beaten by a couple of these gals as last season went on but may get a better setup this time; giving her the nod to get back on track and beat these home.

Tea Time

She wired Miss Behaviour when they met in New York in the fall but she was allowed things her own way through soft splits; filly needed her return try last month at Keeneland and the barn does move them forward second back from the break but her speed is probably going to be challenged in here and she hasn't taken too kindly to rating tactics.

Tepin

Makes her first start back from nearly half a year on the shelf with a couple of solid breezes on her limited worktab; filly improved as they stretched her out which is one of the barn's better angles and she did come up short in her debut, the only time she attempted today's trip; while this G3 SW has ability, she's likely better next time.

Sweetmarys Success

Wasn't quick enough to make the top in the Oaklawn stake on Arkansas Derby Day and came up empty late while finishing behind one of today's foes; the heat was her first start in nearly 10 months, however, and on her best she is pretty fast from the bell, so we'd expect to see her rolling early; depending on how the track is playing she could well last longer this time; consider.

Jojo Warrior

Hood comes off after getting used in pace through quick splits in the Churchill Downs stake a couple of weeks ago; lightly raced filly showed the ability to race and make a run in each of her first 2 spaced starts and maybe now she's set to move forward on the cut back with the regression out of the way; she's the one they'll have to beat.

Our Lesmis

She's another Pennsylvania bred who will make her local debut while trying stakes runners for the first time today; filly did beat just 3 foes home while earning a nice number in the Park slop last time and she'll be catching a field that's significantly tougher than what she's used to facing; like the way she's been working at her base and her capable pilot will ship with her, but she's got her work cut out for her at this level.

New Zone

Took a step back as the chalk while facing older rivals for the initial time here a few weeks back but she was returning just a couple of weeks off paired Beyer tops and had a right to do so; she'll catch a good bunch in her return to stakes company and the outside draw in a 10 runner gathering could put her in a wide spot but the local winner has shown she can stalk and fire and she should get some pace to track in this heat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 12

Valid

Couldn't be coming into this event any sharper exiting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure following a 52-day absence at 7F; Moreno also has big-gate speed which could help the closers; co-career-best number was posted on a wet track which would move him up; is 1 of 5 runners getting their longest-distance test ever today; the Mile loss vs. Golden Lad 3 back suggests the final yards for this will be a huge hurdle to overcome.

Cat Burglar

Staking style is a winning profile; from May 8-11 in 7 PIM dirt races at 1 Mile or longer 2 runners won on the lead and the other 5 winners raced 2nd or 3rd at the 1st call; the 3-back winner repeated in an SA-optional claimer with a 103 Beyer; the added distance here is a concern; we know from Kentucky Derby weekend that it is difficult to bet against this 53%-winning jockey-trainer combo; one of the major concerns is a wet track which is has never raced over; the pick.

Moreno

Speedster own's the field's best Beyer speed figure when nosed in the 2013 Travers at a longer distance than today's; held on gamely in his 1st start of the year but obvious stamina questions especialy if Valid also guns from the gate; broke his maiden in the mud so a wet track would not hurt his chances; the 2-back winner and runner-up Beyered 103-101 in next-out GP-400K-stakes and CD-Grade 1-stakes wins.

Golden Lad

Another runner who is 1-for-1 on a wet track; his Oaklawn fade at shoter does not bolster a lot of confidence chasing a hot pace for this; reunites with a pilot 3-for-3 aboard him but will have to sit just off a sizzling pace then rally home best; defeated the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 99 in a next-out GP-optional-claiming win; has a lot to prove off latest.

Carve

2 huge races since the barn change but he is another runner who tired at shorter in latest while tests his longest-stamina test ever for this; style fits the PIM race track as frontrunners and stalkers won each of the 7 dirt routes here from May 8-11.

Revolutionary

Graduated on a wet track and finished 3rd in the Ky. Derby on less-than-fast footing; could not rally well enough to outkick Will Take Charge in latest but his closing style fit the OP strip well; the 2-back show runner Beyered 95 in a next-out GP-OPC win; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 103 in his next-out GP-G3 victory; clearly with Moreno and Valid here the pace should be hot and set things up for an off-the-pace type like him; winning from perhaps 8-10 lengths back at the 1st call is the major concern.

Major King (KOR)

What a time to make your graded-stakes debut in the USA following a North-American zero Beyer and last-place finish over the track; has won at this distance during career but would shock the world if he turned the form around dramatically from 6 weeks ago.

Prayer for Relief

1st start away from the Asmussen barn was not his best race finishing evenly behind a few of these; his career-best Beyer was posted in his 2nd start off a layoff which is the same scenario for this; hoping today will produce another peak effort; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 97-92 in 2 next-out wins including the Grade 3-Texas Mile.

Bourbon Courage

2012 was his last victory while in latest he did almost everything right but win; the added distance here should help his cause; if you like Revolutionary he beat that one in Florida earlier this year; would have to put up one of his best numbers in over 1 year to be a major player here; is 0-for-3 on wet tracks which includes a G2-placing. - Art Gropper

Race 13

Daring Dancer

Half-sister to Hamp (4-12 over turf for 132k, including a stakes win over the Pimlico turf course) has been very impressive while recording three convincing victories to begin her career, and it looks like she'll only need to repeat her latest effort to make it difficult for one of these to jump up on her; Garcia has won with 9 of 31 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Tupancy Links

Sire wins with approximately 4% of his turf starters and dam won once form five starts for 12k, and she didn't make a start over turf; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Lrl on 3/29 going 6f vs. 50k OPC's with a 73 Beyer; stakes placed miss is in tough for her first turf attempt.

Lucky for You

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won 7 of 22 starts for 107k, including 3 of 7 turf starts for 53k; this filly is a 1/2 to Situational Ethics (2-20, 74k over turf) and Empire Knight (1-2, 45k over turf); turf is a question for this 310k purchase, but she's proven that she has talent, and Castellano has won with 43 of 125 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Buttercup Bay

Half-sister to multiple stakes winner Ready Signal (4-18, 229k over turf) has looked good in her first three starts, and she stepped it up nicely along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in breaking maiden in her most recent start; however, this has to be considered a very tough spot for her to meet up with winners for the first time.

Southern Equity

She's another in here who finds herself being handed a tough assignment for her first attempt against winners, but she did show noticeable improvement in her first start over turf in her latest outing, and she's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 8 of 37 starts for 526k, including 6 of 28 turf starts for 494k, and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Easy Crossing (2-11, 117k over turf); Carrasco has won with 8 of 30 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Courtesan

She's two races removed from a sharp stakes score at Gulfstream Park and that level of performance can put her in with a chance to land a solid share of the prize in this event; she might be ready to give a good account of herself while making her second start back from a layoff and her second start with Lasix.

High Wire Kitten

She ran well in three of her first four starts, and even though it would have been nice to have seen her show more in her graded stakes debut when last seen, there's still reason to believe that she can get herself into the mix against these; winner from latest won next out at Kee on 4/5 going 1 1/16m in a G1 with a 91 Beyer.

Our Epiphany

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal to race from a dam who won 5 of 17 starts for 137k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 21k; this is a tough spot for her to try turf for the first time; Whitacre has won with 13 of 42 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2014. - Brian Pochman