Picks and analysis for mandatory-payout Assiniboia Downs Jackpot Pick 5 on Sept. 20, 2023

RACE 3: LADY COP has been incredibly consistent all year, expect a rebound effort off that third place last out as she had a little traffic in the stretch. She will need to rate off the speed as there are many other front-runners in the field. RUSSIAN PEARL sat the perfect stalking trip last out rebounding from a subpar effort. She just may get the same setup here. CATCH THE DREAM proved very game last out going gate to wire against allowance company in her first start of the season. Her trainer clicks at 24 percent when making a second start off a 180-day-plus layoff, and she is fresh while others are ending their campaigns. (3)

RACE 4: PROPERLY CONNECTED gets another crack at this level after just getting nosed out on the class drop. It was a much better effort than his last few, and he could be heading back in the right direction. He took on much tougher earlier in the season. ASTA LAVISTA HONEY dueled and faded in his worst performance of the season. He was consistent at this level prior to that dull showing and deserves a pass. JUST FOR CHARLOTTE is a 5-year-old mare who has been knocking on the door and will benefit should a speed duel materialize. (3)

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RACE 5: FRANKS RELOAD was overmatched when facing allowance company, finishing last of seven with a wide trip. He has finished in the money four times since arriving from Woodbine. JUSTA BUSTER is super consistent but win shy. He adds some value in here and late in the season just may finally get that breakthrough effort. BIG TICKET has only missed the trifecta once at the distance, but hasn’t picked up a win since arriving from Lone Star in July. This could be his day. (3)

RACE 6: ARAMON won on the lead while taking a huge drop in class from allowance company last out. She gets more class relief here and shortens up to a distance at which she has three wins. Don’t see any reason why she can’t repeat that effort. Single. (1)

RACE 7: ITSTHATTIME came up just short sprinting against $7,500 claimers last out and gets a little more ground dropping again. He should be well suited in here. RAILSPLITTER has been the model of consistency, not missing the board in all his starts this campaign. He has been second in the last three races and provides value at his morning line. WARRIOR’S MAP is logical after being steadied twice last out in a fourth-place finish facing tougher. LAST RENEGADE is intriguing at a price, toss his last effort and he fits in well with this field. He could be the sleeper should a fast pace unfold. (4)

THE PLAY: 1, 3, 4 / 1, 6, 7 / 2, 3, 4 / 5 / 2, 3, 5, 7 = $21.60 ticket

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