Pick six players ready to feast on $94K carryover

DEL MAR, Calif. – While the frequency of pick six carryovers is expected to remain limited in California due to field size and the low $1 minimum, carryovers thankfully are not extinct.

The first carryover since Del Mar and Santa Anita restored traditional pick six formats this fall is up for grabs Thursday at Del Mar, where the Thanksgiving sequence begins with a $94,601 carryover that is expected to attract more than four times that amount in new money.

The single-ticket jackpot format was replaced this fall by a reasonable structure that pays 70 percent of net pool to perfect tickets or carryover, 30 percent to consolations. If the formula to estimate pool size still applies – carryover divided by takeout rate – new money Thursday would be close to $400,000 ($94,601 divided by .2368 [23.68 percent] equals $399,497).

That estimate might be conservative. Pick six players have longed for a traditional format, and Thursday’s pool could skyrocket. To win the $1 bet on races 3-8, the only requirement is to string together six winners. Tough to do, not impossible. Below is a look at the sequence, and a reminder that first post Thursday is 11 a.m. Pacific. The first leg of the pick six is noon.

Race 3: A starter allowance for female sprinters, the race includes one of the most heavily favored runners on the card. House of Magic drops in class, returns to the Del Mar track on which she ran the best race of her career, and is re-equipped with blinkers. She could wire the field as the 6-5 favorite of linemaker Jon White. Late-runner Nokie provides off-the-pace coverage.

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Race 4: This deep second-level allowance turf sprint includes Lovesick Blues, scratched from last weekend’s Cary Grant Stakes. The last time he sprinted on turf, he missed by a neck in a Grade 3. Standing O, another late-runner, has run well on Del Mar turf, and Mas Rapido drops from stakes races.

The speedster Helladic would benefit if the speed-friendly course profile continues. Five of the nine turf sprints this fall were won by the pacesetter.

Race 5: A maiden-claiming sprint for California-bred fillies and mares is led by 12-start maiden Rosie Ann Rules. A late-runner, she has finished second in her last four starts at the level. Eltonsingsanother is speed; first-time starter Bougie Like appears to have trained well.

Race 6: The Grade 3 Red Carpet Stakes at 1 3/8 miles on turf includes two top female marathon specialists, Neige Blanche and Sister Otoole. Pick six bettors need to use both; Oakhurst is a potential upset candidate.

Race 7: This entry-level allowance dirt mile for fillies and mares includes Cliquish. She was compromised by a wide trip finishing second last out.

Keen Lady has run races that are fast enough, while Professors’ Pride looks like the speed.

Just one of the first eight dirt miles this meet was won by the pacesetter.

Race 8: A turf mile for statebred 2-year-old maiden fillies, this race includes likely winner Asada Fries. She is listed at 7-5 on White’s line and only needs to ration her speed to win at a short price.

Last-out runner-up Kitzkaty is not a confirmed starter, while Lamporghini is speed.

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