Pick six carryover hard to resist
ARCADIA, Calif. – Bettors probably can find wagering opportunities Friday at Santa Anita that are more practical than the pick six. But a $59,291 carryover and an additional $250,000 in expected new money just might turn the pick six into an irresistible temptation despite an abnormally high level of difficulty.
The Friday pick six is tough. Every race is deep, no favorite is safe, and constructing an affordable ticket will be as challenging as finding winners one race at a time.
Still, there is little harm in taking a small swing at the pick six, which comprises four dirt races for claiming horses and two turf races for maidens. Below is a look at the sequence, with odds from Santa Anita linemaker Jon White.
Race 3
Anxious Times, the 9-5 favorite, and Tribal Jewel are choices in this $50,000 claiming race at 1 1/16 miles. Both are 3 for 7 at Santa Anita and earned Beyer Speed Figures that are fast enough to win at the level. Anxious Times returns from a seven-month layoff for trainer Richard Mandella; Tribal Jewel was claimed for $40,000 last out from a tough-trip sixth.
Perfect Set, a winner of 3 of his last 6, returns from a short freshening. Got Even is the likely pacesetter, seeking his first win since Jan. 11, 2015. That was the last $50,000 dirt claiming route in Southern California. A pick six ticket using four contenders in the six-horse field would be off to an expensive start.
Race 4
Fillies and mares race one mile for an $8,000 claiming tag. No Tricks for Jack, a 17-time winner, misfired last out but was reclaimed by Robertino Diodoro, who trained her to successive wins last fall. No Tricks for Jack is the 5-2 favorite.
Abets Abet finished second last out at one level higher, while Midnight Lady stretches to her preferred distance. No Tricks for Jack and Midnight Lady have won four of the eight routes for $8,000 claiming females over the past year in Southern California. A pick six ticket that is only three deep in the weakest race of the sequence? Cross your fingers.
Race 5
The 5-2 favorite in this one-mile turf race for maiden special weight 3-year-old fillies is the deep closer Whispering Softly. The pace scenario is murky, with the turf rails at 20 feet. Furthermore, Whispering Softly has marginal qualifications to begin with – a modest runner-up finish in her debut and a distant third in her second start.
Majestic Fantasy is worth a win bet after a better-than-it-looked fourth-place debut. She broke slowly, was rated, made a good move on the far turn, and went evenly. The knock is that that maiden race has been counterproductive – seven have returned to start, producing only a pair of thirds. The race is inscrutable. After the top pair, anything goes.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 8 Goodlookinwife. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 12-1-0-0 with a $0.86 ROI over the past five years with first-time starters on turf. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 10 Last Resort. Trainer Tom Proctor is 9-5-0-1 with a $5.93 ROI over the past five years going dirt to turf and sprint to route with maidens following a layoff of 45 days or more. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Race 6
This six-furlong sprint is for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares, non-winners of three. The 2-1 favorite, Take it Easyplease, likely would win if she reproduced her career-best race, which came last out at seven furlongs. Her 83 Beyer exceeded her previous top by 12 points. With 3 wins and 3 seconds from her last 6 starts, she has learned to be a racehorse.
Tatum’s Gold is worth a win bet. She goes from a route to a sprint in her first start off the claim. That is the same pattern employed successfully by trainer Bob Hess Jr., jockey Joe Talamo, and owner Midwest Thoroughbreds last spring with Bluegrass Sight. Tatum’s Gold would be the first horse at this meet to win from the rail at six furlongs or shorter; 34 have tried.
She Hums is 2 for 2 on the Santa Anita dirt and is returning with the no-claim waiver. Going three deep in this race provides only minimal coverage.
Race 7
Frac Candy, the 3-1 favorite, could lead wire to wire in this $50,000 claiming race for 3-year-olds at one mile. But he must put away the pace presser Storming Candy, who is dropping from successive stakes. Go Long has faced better, and the improving Sugar Buzz has two wins and a second from his three routes. It is another tough race.
Race 8
Older maidens sprint 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, and if the deep closer Caldera gets there, he might have to do it rallying from last. The no-speed colt finished a better-than-it-looked fourth after being blocked on the turn last Friday. However, that race was a route.
Caldera’s trainer, David Jacobson, has done well in the East when wheeling back horses in one week and going from a route to a sprint (7 for 21 over the past five years). Jacobson is still seeking his first win at Santa Anita.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 3 Caldera. Trainer David Jacobson is 21-7-2-3 with a $2.25 ROI over the past five years going route to sprint within seven days of the previous start. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Film Freak, the 7-2 favorite, had legitimate trouble while finishing fourth in his most recent start. Cimpl Man switches to turf with a race under his belt. Milhaud has not raced in nearly a year, but his trainer and jockey have won with five of their last 11 turf sprinters.
The pick six Friday looks almost impossible. Perhaps it also is irresistible.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 6 Lord of Chaos. Trainer Brian Koriner is 60-1-2-6 with a $0.19 ROI over the past five years with first-time starters and 17-0-0-1 in the past two years. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan