Phoenix Stakes: Sibelius has upped his game

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Jerry O’Dwyer doesn’t quite know how Sibelius has gotten as good as he has, but the 41-year-old Irishman is absolutely certain that he’d love to see the 4-year-old gelding earn his way into the Breeders’ Cup.

“There’d be hugs all around,” said O’Dwyer.

Sibelius, off Beyer Speed Figures of 101 and 106 in recent back-to-back victories, figures as a major player Friday at Keeneland when the Grade 2, $350,000 Phoenix Stakes is run for the 170th time. The winner of the six-furlong race gets a Win and You’re In berth into the Nov. 5 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

“He was always a fast horse, but not like he is now,” said O’Dwyer. “I think maybe it’s been a maturity thing. He’s so strong and muscular now. He’s lean but he’s ripped. He’s just a cool dude.”

Sibelius and jockey Junior Alvarado were always on the pace in dominating a second-level Saratoga allowance in August and the Sept. 10 Lite the Fuse at Pimlico. Alvarado will be back aboard from post 5 and likely to be asked to deal with a couple of other early goers, Special Reserve (post 2, Tyler Gaffalione) and Top Gunner (post 3, Reylu Gutierrez), as the Phoenix unfolds on the backstretch and through the turn.

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“We’ll just have to play it according to the break,” said O’Dwyer. “Special Reserve is very fast, so maybe we can sit just off him. Thing is, you don’t take a horse like this out of his comfort zone.”

A third straight win by Sibelius, a 4-year-old Not This Time gelding, surely would make for an emotional post-race celebration. O’Dwyer’s 66-year-old father, Dermot, died suddenly from a heart attack last week in the family’s homeland of County Tipperary.

“We buried him Sunday, and I got back to the States [Tuesday],” said O’Dwyer. “He was the first of his family to go, so it’s been a sad time.”

O’Dwyer is based primarily at the Palm Meadows training center, where his five-horse Keeneland string will rejoin another dozen in South Florida or so by month’s end. His lone graded winner in an eight-year training career was Shotski in the 2019 Remsen.

Special Reserve, the 2021 Phoenix winner for trainer Mike Maker, is the most accomplished in this field and most likely will go favored. An earner of $785,372, the 6-year-old gelding rebounded from a subpar effort in his seasonal debut, the July 16 De Francis Dash in the Laurel Park mud, to win the Aug. 6 Senator Robert Byrd Memorial at Mountaineer Park with a 91 Beyer.

If the two favorites get too crazy out front, Necker Island (post 6, Francisco Arrieta) would be the most logical to capitalize. The stretch-running 5-year-old horse has become very reliable since Chris Hartman turned him back into these shorter races, with Beyers of 98 and 99 resulting from his last starts.

Rounding out the lineup are Sir Alfred James, Baytown Bear, Manny Wah, and Long Range Toddy. Of those, maybe Manny Wah rates the top upset chance after running a decent fourth in his latest.

The Phoenix is the oldest stakes race in America, dating to 1831 at the old Kentucky Association track. It’s the seventh of 10 Friday races and the first leg of a late pick four (races 7-10) that also includes the Jessamine and Alcibiades.

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