Tampa Bay Downs analysis for Sunday, April 19, 2020 BEST BET: Pink Peppermint (1st race) First Race 1. Pink Peppermint 2. Merengue 3. Margie's Rouxbee PINK PEPPERMINT is pretty obvious but tough to go past, not only due to the class drop but also given the solid works since her latest, and the barn's solid stats in most of the pertinent trainer stats; sprints on dirt for the first time but the solid try for 2nd in her debut - albeit on the turf - suggests that she's just fine going shorter distances. MERENGUE will be the one to catch; big wake up in her 2nd career start at huge odds, and though she'll be a fraction of that price today she merits a long look, as she may be able to shake loose and control the pace. MARGIE'S ROUXBEE could be the main pace foe in her local debut; she was unable to get near the front in her latest but she has shown high speed in the past. :: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter Second Race 1. Pretty Boy Dave 2. Ten Miles High 3. First Degree PRETTY BOY DAVE didn't break well from the rail in his first career start, then had no chance after breaking widest in an 11-horse field last time, dueling from the start in a race which set up well for the closers; working well toward this return, which marks his first start for a tag, and trainer Jordan Blair wins at a high rate overall, and does well with absentees. TEN MILES HIGH adds blinkers for his second career start, and trainer Kathleen O'Connell is exceptional with that equipment change; logical enough after running 2nd in his debut, under similar circumstances. FIRST DEGREE looms the short-priced favorite for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who could sweep a chalky double here; obviously a danger off that solid Beyer when last seen, though he did benefit from the race flow against short fields in those last two tries in New York. Third Race 1. Hard n'Sweet 2. Masterio 3. Bumpa HARD N'SWEET rallied strongly for the place in a promising debut for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who will team with jockey Daniel Centeno (53% trainer/jockey combination) to saddle the favorites in each of the first three races here today; the barn wins at 35 percent with runners making their 2nd career starts and 25 percent with blinkers added, and with the new equipment this gelding should be more prominently placed from the start. MASTERIO is the main threat, coming off his best try to date in his first start for trainer Derek Ryan; note the trouble he encountered in his first two career starts, which clearly give him excuses for those losses. BUMPA is wide but he has proven speed and should be a factor from the start; could get brave if able to somehow shake loose from this post. Fourth Race 1. Suzie'ssteppinout 2. Lady's Island 3. Caught Up in You SUZIE'SSTEPPINOUT might offer some value vs. heavy favorite LADY'S ISLAND, coming off a game win in her latest and today landing in a race where she should be nicely set up to make another late run; if the pace is quick and contested that will certainly work to her advantage, and she'd need that type of ideal trip to beat Lady's Island. The latter was sharp in the Minaret Stakes, overcoming a slow start and a plethora of pace in the field to get clear regardless, and the fact that she was still clear on the wire is a testament to that effort; could face some pressure here, and the short layoff is a slight concern, but there's no doubt the main knock is the lack of value. CAUGHT UP IN YOU, like the top pick, stands to benefit from a swift early pace; eligible to pick up some of the pieces. Fifth Race 1. Volador 2. Queens Embrace 3. Sugar Fix VOLADOR overcame moderate fractions to score from off the pace against maiden claimers when last seen, a deceptively good effort which puts her in the thick of this one, which promises a better set up for her; figures to make her presence felt in the lane if the fractions are indeed fast and contested. QUEENS EMBRACE took advantage of such a situation in her latest, her third straight win and second in a row on the turf; certainly the one to fear late, as the pace scenario should once again be in her favor. SUGAR FIX lost to QUEENS EMBRACE two back but rebounded with a smart win against lesser in her return, pairing up 67 Beyers; could still be on the improve for trainer Mike Dini, and she could take a big step forward here with a clean trip stalking rapid fractions. Sixth Race 1. Indian Gulch 2. Big Money Machine  3. Meilleur INDIAN GULCH lost any chance at the start in his latest, a race where he was favored after dropping to this same level following several starts against open claimers; with a clean getaway he clearly has license to run to his best recent figures, which are plenty good enough to put him on the short list of contenders, and he figures to offer some value off that ugly - but forgivable - running line. BIG MONEY MACHINE is making that drop from open, richer claimers into a restricted claimer for $5,000, and he is eligible to improve given the class relief; he does like to run 2nd, making a relatively short price a little tough to take, but he's certainly one to use in exotics. MEILLEUR scored on the lead with a pace advantage in hand two back but he can also rate and make one run if needed; that versatility should enable him to work out a trip today regardless of how the race flow develops. Seventh Race 1. Tilsa 2. Enough Kisses 3. Sassy Sass Siding with the firsters in this maiden special weight turf race, and TILSA comes from the red-hot Thomas barn; she's the first starter out of the dam, who was a stakes-placed grass horse, and works suggest she has some speed. ENOUGH KISSES could be the right value play, as she could be overlooked in the wagering despite some breezes that hint at some ability; out of a dam who won four races, two of them on the grass. SASSY SASS is a threat based on the connections alone, as trainer Christophe Clement is always tough here with firsters on the grass; full sister to More Ice, who was a multiple stakes-placed turfer. Eighth Race 1. Back Page 2. Devastating Move 3. English Laughter BACK PAGE is interesting at a price, as he looms the main speed in this sprint, which is otherwise seemingly short on pace; he may finally be able to shake loose today, and that's a luxury he hasn't had since his last win, back in August. DEVASTATING MOVE comes out of a turf route but now returns to the main track, which may be his preferred surface; has the tactical speed to get position from the start, and he may get first run on the top pick given his inside post. ENGLISH LAUGHTER just missed in his latest, earning a 70 Beyer, which gives him strong credibility in this field; clearly dangerous if he can run back to that figure on the turnback to a sprint. Ninth Race 1. Rank and File 2. Band Sweetheart 3. Billysbirthdaygirl RANK AND FILE was well off the board in his turf debut last time but a slow start cost her her best chance; she was moving well enough through the lane to suggest she has more ability than she showed there, and trainer James Gulick does very well with grass sprinters. BAND SWEETHEART adds blinkers and could show a little more speed in her second career start after a decent try in her debut; clearly dangerous if she's able to take a step forward off that promising first try. BILLYSBIRTHDAYGIRL was dueled into defeat in her first try on the green, then was bumped at the start in her next attempt, and that cost her; lots of upside if she can get a clean trip and avoid a race-long duel.