Peck: Looking for value on eve of Kentucky Derby

With about $900,000 in the win pool as of 8 p.m. Eastern on Friday, the odds for the 19 entrants for Saturday's Kentucky Derby are taking shape. Everyone has a different take on what makes a horse an underlay or an overlay, but here's one way to view the early prices from the standpoint of value.

In post-position order:

WAR OF WILL was lucky to avoid serious injury in the Louisiana Derby, where he took some awkward steps out of the gate. That was his only poor performance this year, and he clearly has an excuse for it. He's been training very well of late, indicating he's none the worse for wear and giving his backers every indication that that race can be safely ignored. He's 18-1, slightly under his 20-1 morning line, and his appeal lies in the individual player's view of his wins in the Risen Star and the Lecomte. Pessimists will point to the slightly subpar Beyers and field quality of those races, while it could also be argued he's poised for a step forward off those works. Even with the tricky inside post, 18-1 just seems too high.

TAX was not a horse trip players were going to like in the Kentucky Derby, coming off a loss in the Wood Memorial despite ideal positioning. But 38-1? That price is especially hard to take when Tacitus, who also took advantage of the pace setup in the Wood, is a 5-1 co-favorite. At these odds, that runner may be too low, but this gelding is too high, even if you don't particularly like his chances off that loss. I don't, but he may well merit inclusion based solely on his price, even if he has some decided knocks that make him a cut below your preferred contenders.

BY MY STANDARDS has improved with each of his last two starts in terms of Beyers and is coming off a win in the Louisiana Derby. That effort must have convinced his backers that he's a threat in the Derby, as he's at 14-1, well below his 20-1 morning-line price. The Beyer does fit, but he meets better, going longer, and perhaps sans another ideal stalking trip, which is what he got at Fair Grounds. He best Spinoff by less than a length, and that runner sits at 53-1. While that runner may be too high at that price, this one is too low by that barometer.

GRAY MAGICIAN is an implausible 29-1, a decidedly short price for a horse who has never posted a Beyer above 80. The 50-1 he was listed at after the draw was, of course, the right price for the son of Grayday, as 50-1 is the unofficial cutoff for the morning linemaker, or he'd be higher than that. He has only a maiden win to his credit, qualifying for this race by virtue of his runner-up finish in the UAE Derby, which was not a well-regarded prep. At 29-1, he's an underlay.

IMPROBABLE is one of three in here at 5-1, making him co-favored with Maximum Security and Tactitus, but he seems to be more deserving of favorite status given his Triple Crown-tested connections and emergence from an apparently stronger prep race. In that Arkansas Derby, he was just a length off Omaha Beach, who was the morning line favorite for the Derby before being scratched. Expecting him to take more money if the track comes up very wet Saturday, as his solid effort in that last prep was over a sloppy track, and that could make him an underlay, as 5-1 seems to represent his true odds in this very closely matched field.

VEKOMA is consistent, and he has the tactical speed to get position, but he can also close ground late. That versatility, combined with his steady figures, makes him easy to like at a square price, at least for exotics. In some ways, this type of runner makes the Derby such an attractive betting race, offering 22-1 on a consistent horse with competitive Beyers who has won three of four, including the well-rated Blue Grass, and he did it rather easily. Certainly worth using in all slots, including the top spot at that price.

MAXIMUM SECURITY is the main speed in the Derby, but he's not the only speed. That's why it was a little surprising to see him at 5-1 as the Friday card wrapped up, as bettors start to respect that he is the only runner in the field to post a triple-digit Beyer – and he's done it twice. Handicappers may also be encouraged by the way the main track was playing late Friday. Either way, 5-1 is lighter than what his true value is, as he was aided by race flow in his last three wins, leading to inflated Beyers.

TACITUS is one of the three co-favorites at 5-1, and while he clearly has gained a following among handicappers off his three straight wins, he remains surprisingly short here, as those victories came in two of the lesser-rated preps, the Wood and the Tampa Bay Derby. Certainly capable of winning. The issue is whether the fact that he's half his morning-line price is smart money pouncing on a value play or represents an underlay. I'd lean toward the latter while still respecting his ability to threaten for the top spot.

PLUS QUE PARFAIT has never run a figure close enough to get him a check in this Kentucky Derby, which is why he was installed at 30-1 on the morning line. But while he's now at 50-1, even that seems to be a little short. And while we're all looking for longshots to juice up our exotics, there are others more likely to get a part of this, some at similar prices and some at higher odds.

CUTTING HUMOR was 22-1 on Friday night, which was lower than expected. It seems the attraction is the 95 Beyer he posted in the Sunland Derby, but that was a figure earned with the aid of a perfect trip behind a quick early pace. He's more likely to regress off that figure than move forward, and the fact that it's causing him to be an underlay – at least in terms of his morning line, which seemed to reflect his real chances – makes him appear to be overbet.

CODE OF HONOR didn't have much chance to close in the Florida Derby, which lacked speed and was controlled by the front-runners, a direct contrast to his setup in the Fountain of Youth. He does figure to get a race flow that more closely resembles the latter race in the Derby, and that makes him a viable contender. At 13-1, he's worth strong consideration, as he is a candidate to take a big step forward in his third start off the layoff given the likely pace scenario.

WIN WIN WIN appears to be well positioned on the board at 14-1, just below his 15-1 morning-line price. His backers feared his impressive workout this week would draw attention (and money), but he's a square price considering how well he's run of late and how his running style fits the expected pace scenario. As a possible win candidate, 14-1 is plenty square, and he is one to use in all slots if that price holds up, which certainly seems likely.

MASTER FENCER is at 50-1, which actually seems a little light since he looks to be one of the rank outsiders. He's a cut below the very best runners in Japan, who would have a tough time in this spot themselves. Certainly capable – as most all of them are – of grabbing the last slot of the superfecta, but longer-priced horses seem more likely to even do that.

GAME WINNER was 6-1 in the immediate aftermath of the Oaks, right about where he figured to be. As one of the possible favorites following the defection of Omaha Beach, this son of Candy Ride was a close fourth choice behind co-favorites Improbable, Maximum Security, and Tactitus, all at 5-1. He was odds-on in both of his prep races for this, both losses, but he ran well in defeat and posted representative Beyers. He's right at the price level he should be, and it's hard to argue with anyone who plans to use him as a key at 6-1.

ROADSTER may be the best value play of the three Baffert runners, if Friday night's 9-1 holds up through Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby yielded a Beyer of 98, which clearly stamps him as a win candidate, and with the top contenders very tough to separate, that price may be what makes him most attractive of those runners.

LONG RANGE TODDY is speedy but wide, and he while he figures to be involved from the start, he could have trouble lasting if the pace is quick, which is a good possibility. And since the projected race flow seems to favor closers, it would appear to be wiser to use rallyers to fill out the superfecta, as opposed to hoping the speeds can hang on. Yes, the price is juicy, but there are similarly priced closers who merit a longer look for the bottom spots of the exotics.

SPINOFF is an interesting longshot, if due only to the connections involved. There are players who would tell you that any horse trained by Todd Pletcher who goes off at 53-1 is value, and he does come off a career-best Beyer. He's hit the board in all four of his starts, and while his running style could work against him if the pace is quick, it's hard to argue he can't possibly hit the board, and the price is certainly right.

COUNTRY HOUSE is being overlooked in the wagering, and that's no real surprise. He does fit the race as a closer, as the pace could be quick, but it's a stretch to say he's a win contender. That said, it's not far-fetched to envision a scenario where he could pick up a small piece late. As the saying goes, anyone can run fourth. But at 72-1, you could do worse filling out the last slot in your super ticket.

BODEXPRESS is the longest shot in the field, and rightly so. Not only does this colt a maiden, but he has post 19. Has his work cut out for him if he's to even hit the board, suggesting that the 99-1 price accurately reflects his chances.