Peck: How I'll play Parx on Saturday, September 21, 2019

There are some key scratches in today's late Pick four sequence at Parx, which includes the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby. Of course, everyone knows Maximum Security is out of the feature race but on Saturday morning Monongahela, one of the main contenders in the Parx Dirt Mile, was scratched, and that changes the betting landscape for that race, and this sequence. Here's an updated look:

Race 8: FOREWARNED (2) was overmatched in the Woodward and Whitney but this class drop should be appreciated as he returns to Parx. He was up the track in those races but he wasn't disgraced and the Beyers fit well enough. The horse to beat is COAL FRONT (6), even more so now with the late scratch of Monongahela. He hasn't been out since July but he's been working well and figures to be prominent from the start.

Race 9: LANDESKOG (6) was off the board only once, two back, when he prompted a quick pace in the Woody Stephens, a race that set up well for closers. KING JACK (7) ships in from California with some of the best Beyers in the field. He is versatile enough to lead or rate, and that should enable him to work out a trip regardless of how the race flow develops. BULLETIN (9) is widest of the nine entered in the Gallant Bob but he's quick from the gate, and could in fact be the one to catch.

Race 10: SERENGETI EMPRESS (1) goes two turns for the first time since her strong Kentucky Oaks score, and gets the rail. There's other speed in here but there was also speed in the Oaks, and she could be tough to reel in on the lead. STREET BAND (3) may have moved too soon in the Alabama, when she weakened late after making a run on the turn, and also may not have preferred a sloppy strip. GUARANA (8) is undefeated in three starts and looks like the one to beat in the Cotillion on the strength of the Beyers she posted in those wins.

Race 11: The defection of Maximum Security clearly changes the complexion of the Pennsylvania Derby. Going to take a shot against Improbable, who likely becomes the favorite now, as he was with the race flow in several recent tries. SPUN TO RUN (5) has some speed and should be well positioned from the start, and in a race lacking an obvious race flow that's an edge. MR. MONEY (6) has some early zip of his own, and he certainly couldn't be in much better form as he seeks his fifth straight win.

The play: 2, 6 / 6, 7, 9 / 1, 3, 8 / 5, 6 = 36 Combinations ($18 Ticket)