Peck: How I'd play Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs

Handicappers Matt Bernier and Kenny Peck are going head to head with $500 to wager on the Kentucky Derby Day card at Churchill Downs.

Friday was a disastrous day, where I recovered only $30 thanks to a scratch. My biggest regret is underrating Lovely Maria as I would love to be alive in the Oaks/Derby double and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick three. Best of luck if you are.

Luckily, Saturday is another day, and DRF has graciously allowed both Matt and I to take more swings on the Saturday card.

It’s a strong Kentucky Derby Day card, from start to finish. Here's what I like best about it, using a Daily Racing Form supplied $500 bankroll:

RACE 1: Love the work pattern for TARPY'S SURPRISE (#6) and will look to start the day off on a good note with him in the opener. I'll use the entry of INDYCOTT (#1) and HAZARDS OF LOVE (#1A), as both have Beyer Speed Figures that fit here, as well as main inside speed EVAN'S CALLING (#2), BANNER BILL (#7), and IRISH YOU WELL (#8).

$50 WIN #6 ($50)
$20 EXACTA 6 / 1, 2, 7, 8 ($80)
$10 EXACTA 1, 2, 7, 8 / 6 ($40)

RACE 5: The race flow seems to favor closers, and THE TRUTH OR ELSE (#3) comes off races where he may have had built-in excuses behind American Pharoah. He has license to move way up here if main contenders GIMME DA LUTE and COMPETITIVE EDGE knock heads and LORD NELSON proves to be best at shorter distances.

$50 WIN / PLACE #3 ($100)

:: Bernier: How I'd play Kentucky Derby Day

RACE 9: Expecting favorite Bayern to be pressured on the lead by Private Zone and/or others in here, and that would work to the advantage of PANTS ON FIRE (#5), who comes off a game win. He was on the lead in that score, but he does seem to be at his best when allowed to settle early and close late.

$100 WIN PANTS ON FIRE ($100)

RACE 11: The 2015 Kentucky Derby is fascinating from a betting perspective, especially if you don't think AMERICAN PHAROAH has to win. I completely respect him, and I consider him the most likely winner, but I'm not looking for 5-2 or 2-1 for a horse trying a new distance against 19 other horses. I'll use MUBTAAHIJ (#6), FIRING LINE (#10), and FRAMMENTO (#21) in an effort to get value

50-CENT TRIFECTA: 6, 10, 21 / 6, 10, 21 / ALL ($54)
50 CENT TRIFECTA: 6, 10, 21 / ALL / 6, 10, 21 ($54)
$1 TRIFECTA: 18 / 6, 10, 21 / ALL ($54)
$6 EXACTA: 6, 10, 21 / 18 ($18)