Peck: Hot pace could burn 'Chrome'

With several one-dimensional speeds entered, plotting the race flow of the 139th running of the Preakness is relatively straightforward. The obvious candidates to make the lead are Bayern and Social Inclusion, and the presence of that pair alone would be enough to ensure a quick, contested pace. Fairly elementary, at least on the surface.

But this year’s field also includes General a Rod, who hasn’t shown that he’s capable of coming from far off the pace when routing, as well as Pablo Del Monte, another who is at his best when he’s involved early. The latter pair don’t seem quick enough to stay with Bayern and Social Inclusion in the opening stages, but their presence is more fuel for the possible pace inferno, and if it plays out this way, all four of them are likely to get burned.

The big question: How does California Chrome adapt?

In the Kentucky Derby, California Chrome proved yet again that he’s not a horse reliant on race flow to run big. He doesn’t need a loose lead, and he doesn’t need a fast, or a slow, pace. That’s precisely what makes him so tough, and his versatility is a big reason why he comes into the Preakness riding a five-race win streak.

With the aforementioned speeds pushing the issue and knocking heads on the front end, California Chrome might find that sweet spot right behind them, taking over when ready while getting first run on the closers. If that sounds familiar, it should – that’s similar to the trip he got in the Kentucky Derby.

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There is one difference, however, and it’s a big one: Bayern – even with his blinkers removed – and Social Inclusion have more natural speed than Derby pacesetters Chitu and Uncle Sigh, and the fractions are very likely to be faster in Baltimore than they were in Louisville. In fact, they could well be much quicker, and that kind of pace can significantly hurt the chances of not only the leaders but any horse close to the expected battle.

While California Chrome obviously can rate off the lead and make one run, he can hardly be considered a closer. And if the splits are radically fast, that could leave the favorite vulnerable to stretch runners.

Ring Weekend and Dynamic Impact are stalkers who figure to be in the second flight behind the speeds, and while there are worse trips than that, the logical horses to benefit most from an extreme pace are those coming from farthest back in the pack. That would include Kid Cruz, Ride On Curlin, and Ria Antonia. The latter runner doesn’t seem to have the ability of the first pair, and it would be a surprise if she hits the board regardless of the kind of trip she gets. But Kid Cruz and Ride On Curlin become trifecta candidates – at the very least – if the race develops in this fashion.

Kid Cruz doesn’t have the figures of some of the top contenders, and this is easily the best field he’s faced. But from a pace perspective, his last two races are much better than the Beyer Speed Figures may suggest. He won the Private Terms two back by unleashing a strong closing kick, quickly opening a daylight lead in the lane despite some ordinary early fractions. Last time, in the Federico Tesio, it was more of the same, with Kid Cruz drawing clear late, again overcoming mild splits.

The slow tempo in those races made it very unlikely for either to have a fast raw final time, and thus yield a big Beyer, but he has lots of room to improve Saturday in terms of speed figures if he actually gets an advantageous race flow, the big class rise notwithstanding.

Everyone who watched him steady into the stretch and then rumble home wide in the Kentucky Derby seems to be upgrading the chances of Ride On Curlin in the Preakness, and rightly so. He fits the expected pace profile, and it’s worth noting that he was against the flow or bias in his previous tries, the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel. He was not close to catching California Chrome in Louisville, but with a much different pace scenario, one that moves him up while possibly hurting the chances of the favorite, he’s live.

A fundamental premise in pace handicapping is this: Take stands against horses at short prices going from a favorable setup to an unfavorable one. And this could be one of those situations. California Chrome was undeniably the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, but he also had the easiest trip.

On paper, he’s the best horse in the Preakness. Due to the expected race flow, however, he might have to rate farther off the pace in the Preakness than he ever has, and under those conditions, he’s untested and unproven. That scenario makes taking a short price a difficult proposition any day of the week, and that includes in the second leg of the Triple Crown.