Peck: Finding value in Belmont Stakes field

The lack of a Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes is bad news for the Elmont, N.Y., racetrack but good news for handicappers, as the absence of a standout betting favorite means a completely wide-open field ripe with betting value.

Of course, a long price on the board does not necessarily represent value since odds have to be contrasted with an individual horse's actual chances of winning the race. But when you get a full field that lacks obvious horses to beat, you're going to find several horses who offer better odds than they probably should. The tricky part, of course, is discerning a horse's true odds, as it is largely a subjective matter.

Let's take a look at a horse like Twisted Tom. He's trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, certainly a world-class combination. Twisted Tom is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and likely will be at least that price, and there are players who simply will look at the price and think, "How often am I going to get 20-1 in the Belmont on the jockey and trainer who won the Preakness?"

To that player, that's value. But the opposing view is that Twisted Tom doesn't fit the race well in terms of race flow or figures, and he'd probably be nearly double the price if he were trained and ridden by average folks. And for what it's worth, Brown and Castellano have had horses go off at better than 20-1 five times since 2012, and all were off the board.

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The favorite, Irish War Cry, certainly can win the Belmont. The New Jersey-bred was well off the board in the Kentucky Derby, but that was no easy trip, and he was flattered when the horse he beat in the Wood Memorial in his previous try, Cloud Computing, returned to win the Preakness in his next start. Irish War Cry has tactical speed and back Beyer Speed Figures that are among the best in the field, and he is a deserving favorite. But is he worth a win bet at 7-2? Like most of these, he's never been farther than 1 1/4 miles. He likes to be close to the pace, and there is other speed in here, which likely will mean honest fractions. And his best figures have come when he's benefited from favorable setups. He obviously can win, and if you had to pinpoint the most likely winner of the Belmont, it could be him, but in a full field like this, a short win price on a horse unproven at the distance does not constitute value.

Epicharis is another horse who will offer odds lower than his likely chances of winning. He's wide, he’s unproven at 1 1/2 miles, and though he was a nose short of a perfect 5-for-5 record in the UAE Derby, one could reasonably question the level of competition he's faced. Again, could he win? Sure. Do I want to collect 4-1 on him if he does prove to be good enough? Not at all.

There are several runners in the field who figure to offer attractive odds if the morning line holds up. Hollywood Handsome might merit inclusion, at least in exotics, if he's really 30-1, as he has a proven late kick and an upward trend in Beyers. Gormley is interesting at 8-1, as that seems to be on the cusp of an acceptable price. Multiplier had an excuse in the Preakness, and he figures to move up with more ground in the Belmont.

But the 15-1 posted on J Boys Echo is one of the reasons he's my top pick, as he had excuses in each of his last two, and he's trained well since that Derby debacle. Like many of these, you'll have to forgive that subpar effort in Louisville, but if he does rebound and win this, the $32 mutuel would represent a fair price on the winner of the Gotham – in which he beat the eventual winner of the Preakness.