Peck: Evaluating value in the 2018 Kentucky Derby
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEWhile there certainly are instances where there are virtually uniform opinions, the concept of value is much like beauty, as it is largely in the eye of the beholder - in this case, the handicapper. So here's one handicapper's take on what horses offer value in the Kentucky Deryb. To simplify, we'll use the Churchill Downs morning line as an odds barometer:
#1 FIRENZE FIRE (50-1) Proof that long odds alone don't constitute value. His speed figures suggest he has little to no chance to hit the board, and the inside draw doesn't help matters.
#2 FREE DROP BILLY (30-1) Fits the projected race flow as a closer but doesn't seem fast enough to make an impact. Long price likely but his chances of winning this are likely at least triple his morning line price.
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED (30-1) Likely pacesetter is going to have to back down the fractions to have a shot at hanging on for a piece of this, a tall order with Justify and others pushing the issue. Likely against the expected race flow. I'd want better than 30-1 if I were to use him.
#4 FLAMEAWAY (30-1) Will be part of the early pace, which figures to be honest, at the very least. Hard to imagine a scenario where he pushes quick splits and staves off the closers, all while posting a career-best Beyer, and that makes even 30-1 seem light.
#5 AUDIBLE (8-1) Winner of four straight is within range when it comes to his Beyers, but he will need a step up to win this. Further, he had an ideal setup in the Florida Derby win, yet managed "only" a 99 Beyer. He figures to be ideally spotted off a quick pace again, but 8-1 seems just a little light to take in the Kentucky Derby on a horse coming off a perfect-trip score.
#6 GOOD MAGIC (12-1) If this morning line holds up (doubtful), this is among the best value plays in the field. He was against the race flow in the Fountain of Youth, his first start of the season, and he returned to post an improved figure in winning the Blue Grass. May be on the upswing for world-class trainer, and one could argue that 12-1 on any horse trained by Chad Brown could be considered value.
#7 JUSTIFY (3-1) The recent success of favorites in the Derby notwithstanding, taking a short price against 19 rivals cannot be considered the road to parimutuel success - there are simply too many possible pitfalls. And that seems especially true when the horse in question has beaten a total of 14 horses in his three career starts, benefiting from ideal position in each of his last two. Absolutely brilliant in those races, he is certainly the most likely winner on paper, but they'll run this Derby on the dirt and he may or may not get another favorable setup. At 3-1 - and likely less than that - the Derby favorite is an inherent underlay.
#8 LONE SAILOR (50-1) Posted a career-high Beyer when a neck short in the Louisiana Derby, but that was a product of race flow. He should get pace here as well, but he would need to run a lot faster to get a check. With that in mind, his true win odds are north of his morning line.
#9 HOFBURG (20-1) Getting some love from clockers, and he does have upside in only his fourth career start, but the fact is he was well set up in the Florida Derby and was still nowhere close to catching up with Audible. Prefer other closers, who are better prices, making 20-1 an underlay in this book.
#10 MY BOY JACK (30-1) Here's a closer who has been with the race flow on several recent occasions but has also been visually impressive, including in defeat in the Louisiana Derby. Certainly worth using at 30-1 in exotics, as he should get ample pace and he has a proven late kick, and perhaps worth a win bet at that price, at least as a saver.
#11 BOLT D'ORO (8-1) If Justify is overbet, as expected, this is another colt who will offer value. He was behind the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby but he made a nice mid-race run at that rival, who controlled the pace from the start. Justify had another gear, and drew off from him, but with a much different race flow on tap for Saturday, this is a horse who can certainly turn the tables with a clean trip. Would prefer 10-1, but 8-1 is acceptable from a value standpoint.
#12 ENTICED (30-1) Comes off a very game effort for the place in the Wood, where he pushed a quick pace and had every right to stop yet continued strongly to the wire. If he can take back off the pace he has a chance to fall into a much better trip, and he has shown that he can take back and make one run. Seems worth using underneath at 30-1 with that possible scenario in mind.
#13 BRAVAZO (50-1) He was a game winner in the Risen Star but he meets much better here and he'd need to run much faster to hit the board. Not easy to like at any price off that last effort, even 50-1.
#14 MENDELSSOHN (5-1) Pace handicappers will always be against any horse who comes off a huge figure earned with the aid of a tactical advantage, and that includes this colt, who parlayed a loose lead on a speed-friendly strip to an 18 ½-length score and a 106 Beyer. He'll take money based on that line, and if one feels that is not a true indication of his ability, 5-1 is an egregious underlay.
#15 INSTILLED REGARD (50-1) Seems a cut below even the fringe players, and that makes his chances slim. Consistent sort in terms of Beyers, but the bad news is those figures aren't good enough to get him a check, which makes him unattractive even at 50-1.
#16 MAGNUM MOON (6-1) Undefeated son of Malibu Moon has tactical speed and he's worked well since the Arkansas Derby win. Not a tough horse to like in general, but 6-1, from post 17 on a horse who uses his speed as a weapon? In a race where he figures to be close-up chasing a fast pace? To be fair, he will likely be longer than the quoted price, but 6-1 does not constitute value.
#17 SOLOMINI (30-1) He's hit the board in all six of his career starts despite running into trouble on occasion. He was a deceptively good third in the Arkansas Derby, and trainer Bob Baffert is of course always dangerous here. Not too often you get 30-1 on one of his runners, either, and that alone makes him worth considering, at least for the bottom of exotics.
#18 VINO ROSSO (12-1) Will be bet some based on his win in the Wood last time out, and from the standpoint of value that's problematic, as that career-high figure was earned due to a very favorable setup. True, he figures to fit the race flow as a closer once again, but the fact that his price will be depressed due to a figure earned with the aid of a favorable trip makes him an underlay.
#19 NOBLE INDY (30-1) Game score in the Louisiana Derby, coming again late after being passed in the lane. Not wild about his running style in this race, as he wants to be close and the pace will be quick, but of all the longshot speed-types in here he offers the most appeal, and at 30-1 he's worth including in exotics, at least underneath.
#20 COMBATANT (50-1) Against the race flow in his last start in the Arkansas Derby but now figures to benefit from a favorable setup, and that's always the framework for a viable longshot. Has has only a 2017 maiden score in his win column, but he has not run a bad race since that score, getting checks each time, and at 50-1 he's clearly a horse to consider for superfectas at least.