Peck: Derby pace scenario favors California Chrome

Most years, projecting the race flow for the Kentucky Derby is pretty straightforward, at least on paper: A quick, contested pace will develop, setting up those horses who can take back and make one run. Unearthing the winner has meant finding the horse with the best late kick, or the horse who figures to benefit most from the race flow.

In the past, pace handicappers may or may not have gotten the right closer, but the pace scenario, at least, has usually developed as expected. The presence of 20 horses has meant at least a few horses who could be considered “pure speeds,” leading to quick, contested fractions. That sets the table for those horses coming from off the pace. If the tempo was fast enough, the edge narrowed from all ralliers to those coming from the farthest back – the deep closers.

But while that typically has been the recipe for winning the first leg of the Triple Crown in recent years, the ingredients may have changed this year. The 2014 Kentucky Derby could once again offer a textbook example of how pace is instrumental in determining the outcome of the most scrutinized race of the year. But in this year’s version, it could be the speeds, rather than the stretch runners, who hold the aces. And California Chrome may hold them all.

The problem for handicappers who rely heavily on pace and are searching for value in the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby is one they face just about every day of the year: The favorite in the race, at least on paper, appears to also have a tactical edge.

California Chrome has speed but also can rate, so a race-long duel is unlikely, as he can take back if need be. In fact, he was forced to come from just off the pace after breaking a beat slowly last time out in the Santa Anita Derby. But he was right off longshot early leader Dublin Up from the start, rating beautifully while benefiting from a forward trip in a race lacking much other speed, and drew off powerfully through the lane.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY: Posts, odds, and comments

In Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, there are several runners with decent Beyer Speed Figures and established early zip, most notably Chitu and Wildcat Red. Both are at their best when with the pace, though Wildcat Red is perhaps the only runner in the field who has not shown an ability to take back and pass horses when going a route of ground.

If he and Chitu are intent on the lead, then California Chrome could fall into a perfect stalking trip. If they are unable or unwilling to make the lead, the favorite likely will shake loose. If only one goes for the lead, California Chrome gets the same “second speed” trip he got in the Santa Anita Derby, albeit against better horses.

Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Vicar’s In Trouble, and General a Rod also have speed, but none could be considered one-dimensional front-runners, as they’ve all come from just off the pace with success. Since these pace-prompters are generally at their best when allowed to sit off the pacesetter and make one run, why would the connections choose to push the issue early, a strategy that likely would leave them with tired horses by the top of the stretch?

The race could consist of only two horses really looking for the lead, with one of them, California Chrome, a horse who has run his best races with a forward trip and a close-up target. All in all, despite a strong distaste for taking a short price in this particular race, his versatility makes it difficult to take a strong stand against California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby.

[DRF Live: Get live reports and handicapping insights from Churchill Downs on Saturday]

The frustrating part for purveyors of pace is that California Chrome ordinarily would be the type of horse you’d line up to bet against in the Derby. He comes into the race as a strong favorite on the strength of big-figure wins in his last two starts, but those Beyers were earned with the aid of favorable race flows.

Under these circumstances, this is the type of horse – one coming off a big figure that was aided by a favorable setup – who is almost always an underlay in the betting in his next try. But on Saturday, California Chrome could once again be in position to take advantage of the expected pace scenario.

The group that could be against the grain – if the pace does in fact turn out to be controlled – includes any runner who will be looking to come from well off the pace. In almost any other year, a horse like Commanding Curve would be an attractive trifecta candidate at the very least. He’s a proven rallier who apparently is getting better with each start, and he’s coming off consecutive races in which he was fighting a race flow that aided the front-runners.

But if an average pace develops in the Derby, Commanding Curve could have a tough time making up enough ground late, despite the added distance seemingly working to his advantage.

Wicked Strong, who is projected as the third choice in the betting, is another who could be at the mercy of the pace, and if that’s the case, he could have trouble running back to his tour de force in the Wood Memorial. He’s not only another who would have to overcome the race flow to win, but that last Beyer was greatly enhanced by a perfect setup, where he sat behind a duel and picked up the tiring frontrunners late.

Horses going from a favorable setup to an adverse race flow are rarely good bets and account for many of the so-called “bounces” we see from runners coming off career-best efforts.

California Chrome is expected by some to regress off his last two races, both of which produced triple-digit Beyers. But while he did take advantage of beneficial pace setups in those races, a similar situation could surely play out Saturday, creating a scenario where the Derby favorite, in very good form and in possession of a Beyer edge, also has a tactical advantage. That’s a horse who should be expected to run a very big race, which is what we could well see from California Chrome in the Derby.