Peck: Breeders' Cup Distaff-Classic double play

I really like STOPCHARGINGMARIA (4) in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Friday for a couple reasons. One is she figures to go back to rating off the pace and making one run, and that seems to be her preferred style. She was on the lead in the Personal Ensign and gave way late, but with established speeds in the Distaff, it's hard to believe she will engage in a duel when she's perfectly capable of taking off a potentially quick pace and making a late move.

What's also appealing is the fact that Stopchargingmaria is making her first start off a two-month layoff, and she has run some of her best races – and posted some of her best Beyer Speed Figures – under similar circumstances. She is working very well toward this return, and she has competitive figures.

To a lesser extent, I'll also use I'M A CHATTERBOX (1) and SHEER DRAMA (14). I’m a Chatterbox meets older for the first time, but she still may be improving for trainer Larry Jones, and she also figures to get a favorable stalking trip behind the speeds, while Sheer Drama merits a long look despite her wide post as she has the tactical speed to gain position early.

The Classic appears to be AMERICAN PHAROAH's (4) race to lose. He has shown himself to be a deserving champion, and he's proven at the distance. Most importantly, he's versatile enough to adapt to any pace scenario, and that precisely is what makes him dangerous here as there's just not all that much pure speed in the Classic field.

American Pharoah is the most likely winner, but value will be hard to come by. My stab at a price will be SMOOTH ROLLER (7), who beat a deep field rather decisively in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita last time out. He has the speed to stay close to the favorite and may in fact get first run at the Triple Crown champion. He may or may not be good enough, but at 15-1 or so, it's worth a shot to find out. With Beholder out, I'll elevate TONALIST (1) to my third pick, and he certainly wouldn't be a big surprise. I'll use him defensively.

The play

$10 double 4 / 4, 7
$5 double 1, 14 / 4, 7
$3 double 1, 4, 14 / 1

Total bet: $49