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Pair of intriguing longshots on turf

Joe DeVivo|Sep 07, 2014

With a full field of 14 fillies and mares who appear evenly matched, Wednesday’s $45,000 seventh race at Laurel Park sure looks like a good spot to shop for a price.

Scheduled for one mile on turf, the second-level optional $20,000 claimer has a lukewarm 7-2 favorite in Buttercup Bay, who comes off a victory in an allowance restricted to 3-year-old fillies who never won two races. Her performance was flattered when runner-up Munirah returned to win the Grade 3 Boiling Springs at Monmouth Park. But Buttercup Bay now must step up in class and face older horses.

Based on morning-line prices, the two most tempting longshots appear to be Bear Access (15-1), a 4-year-old who has run well in both of her previous starts on grass, and I Will If You Will, a 20-1 outsider who switches surfaces while making just her second start since last October.

Race 7

KEY CONTENDERS

Buttercup Bay (Last 3 Beyers: 78-71-56)

Improved when she dropped from an overnight stakes to a preliminary allowance for a barn winning at a 22 percent clip this season.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Arnaud Delacour is just 1 for 10 with last-out winners returning from a break of 31 to 60 days in a turf route.

I Will If You Will (Last 3 Beyers: 37-73-70)

One mile is clearly her best distance, as she won her final two starts of 2013, albeit on dirt, going a flat mile. Although winless in four starts on grass, she did post a pair of close seconds going a mile at Tampa Bay Downs in 2013.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Carlos Garcia is 5 for 28 (18 percent) second time off the layoff in turf routes. Talented young rider Trevor McCarthy, who rode this filly to one of her wins last season, is 15 for 61 (24 percent) with a $3.40 return on investment with his turf mounts since Aug. 1.

Bear Access (Last 3 Beyers: 67-68-70)

Held a narrow lead at the stretch call last time out before settling for second, beaten just 1 ¼ lengths against similar competition at Penn National. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Adelicate Miss, returned to win her next start with a 73 Beyer. The winner, Ferry Music, improved her Beyer to a 78 when beaten 2 ¼ lengths in last Saturday’s $100,000 Mrs. Penny at Parx.

Mshomecomingqueen (Last 3 Beyers: 69-79-79)

Has failed to clear her second allowance condition in seven attempts, but has come close a couple times, losing by a head two starts ago at Delaware Park. Won going a mile over this course last December.

Handoverthecat (Last 3 Beyers: 72-78-68)

Stretches out for third start of her current form cycle for high-percentage trainer Graham Motion. From a small sampling, Motion is 2 for 5 with a $5.04 ROI with that move. Filly is a half-sister to March to Victory, who won 5 of 19 turf routes with a career-best Beyer of 98.

Ceci N Red (Last 3 Beyers: 68-78-39)

Won at this level with an 83 Beyer going 7 ½ furlongs at Gulfstream Park in April. Makes third start of current form cycle, which often produces a peak performance, but trainer Patricia Farro is only 2 for 37 with that angle in turf routes.

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