Pair of fillies try to continue trend of winning favorites on turf
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ARCADIA, Calif. – A pair of low-odds, lightly raced fillies will try to win separate California-bred turf races Friday at Santa Anita, and an autumn trend supports both – On the Equinox in race 1, and Nene Diamond in race 6.
Grass races this fall at Santa Anita have been unusually predictable, akin to the parade of chalk that has become routine on California dirt.
Horseplayers have grown accustomed to, or perhaps fatigued by, the perpetually high win rate of favorites in dirt races at Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos – 43.6 percent since the start of the Santa Anita winter meet. Turf races typically offer bettors a greater chance to beat the chalk.
From the start of the Santa Anita winter meet until the start of the fall meet, turf favorites in Southern California won at a historically normal 33 percent. Los Alamitos does not offer turf racing. But this fall at Santa Anita, turf favorites are hitting like clockwork.
The sample is small, but turf favorites at the autumn meet have won 44 percent (14 of 32) of the time, while dirt favorites have hit at 42 percent (11 of 26). The favorite-friendly turf trend gets tested Friday in a maiden turf route and an allowance turf sprint, both for statebred fillies and mares.
Based on her first two starts at Del Mar, favorite On the Equinox is poised for a maiden victory third time out in the first race. Craig Lewis trains the Clubhouse Ride 3-year-old filly, whose runner-up debut in a turf sprint was followed by a promising third-place finish at a mile on turf.
On the Equinox was keen early, a frequent foible for sprint-to-route stretch-outs. Although she eventually appeared to settle, On the Equinox was unable to tuck in from post 9 and was caught three wide throughout. It was too much to overcome, as she lost by 2 1/2 lengths as the 1.70-1 favorite. Her price could be shorter Friday.
Juan Hernandez rides On the Equinox, who figures to improve second-time long. Her main rivals are stretch-out Bessie Coleman, a potential pacesetter; and Miss Will, a five-start maiden who employed a ground-saving trip to finish a head in front of On the Equinox last out.
In race 6, favorite Nene Diamond also was compromised in a California-bred allowance turf sprint at Del Mar. Making her first start in a year and a half, she bobbled from the inside post, zoomed inside, steadied while keen, tucked into third, rallied outside, and missed by a nose in a promising comeback that was only her second career start.
Nene Diamond, with Hernandez also aboard, is a two-start filly trained by Francisco Garcia, assistant to provisionally suspended trainer Mike Puype. With a race under her belt and a post in the middle of the field (5 of 8), Nene Diamond is likely to improve in her second start back while stretching from five furlongs to six.
The main rivals for Nene Diamond are last-out wide-trip Sassy Prancealot and stakes-placed comebacker Proof She Zips. One quirk regarding chalk in six-furlong turf sprints this fall: Favorites won the first two, and are 0 for 9 since.
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