Outside post a possible stumbling block for Gunnevera in Florida Derby

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Trainer Antonio Sano is a very confident man when it comes to his highly regarded Kentucky Derby candidate, Gunnevera. So, too, is Gunnevera’s rider, Javier Castellano.

“Javier told me that if we win the Florida Derby, we’ll win the Kentucky Derby,” Sano said this week.

The betting public is likely to share Sano and Castellano’s enthusiasm for Gunnevera, sending him postward as its choice to win Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park – despite his drawing the outside post. The 8-1 second choice on Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch, Gunnevera is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in a field of 11 entered for the Florida Derby, although only 10 are expected to start.

The nine-furlong Florida Derby will be run as the final event on a 14-race program that includes eight other stakes, five of them graded. First post is noon Eastern.

Sano and Castellano have every right to exude confidence in Gunnevera following his dominant performance in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here four weeks ago. Gunnevera exploded from off a hotly contested pace to a 5 3/4-length victory over the Grade 1 winner Practical Joke in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth. That race was reminiscent of Gunnevera’s equally impressive triumph – by the same margin – in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot in his 2-year-old finale.

Sano barely blinked an eye after Gunnevera drew post 11 for the Florida Derby. Sano said his chief concern for his stretch-running 3-year-old is the pace, not the post. He voiced total confidence that his horse’s ability, running style, and four-time Eclipse Award-winning rider will all offset the problems presented by his post position.

“This is a different race than the last race,” Sano said. “There was three or four speed horses in that race, only two in this one – State of Honor and Three Rules.”

Gunnevera’s principal competition in the Florida Derby should come from the steadily improving Always Dreaming and the speedy pair of State of Honor and Three Rules.

The remainder of the field is comprised of Impressive Edge and Talk Logistics as well as decided outsiders Unbridled Holiday, Coleman Rocky, Quinientos, and Charlie the Greek. Battalion Runner was entered by trainer Todd Pletcher but only “as an insurance policy” in case his stablemate Always Dreaming is unable to start.

Always Dreaming is the biggest question mark in the field. The lightly raced son of Bodemeister began his career last summer with trainer Dominick Schettino before being transferred to Pletcher for his 3-year-old campaign. Always Dreaming won both of his starts this winter, each coming around two turns against relatively weak opposition, including a 1 1/8-mile entry-level allowance race for which he earned a paltry 71 Beyer Speed Figure here on March 4. John Velazquez rode him in both races and retains the mount.

“We laid out a methodical plan for him by design, wanted the foundation of a two-turn race for him to start off at Tampa, then thought long and hard about the Fountain of Youth before deciding a more gradual step was the correct one,” said Pletcher, who is seeking his fourth Florida Derby victory. “His last race was very difficult to assess because it was very windy and the track was very cuppy that day. Johnny only let him run the last eighth of a mile, but he did gallop out very strongly after that.

“He’s trained exceptionally well all winter, as good as anybody I have up here, so I’m both hoping for and expecting a big performance from him.”

Three Rules and State of Honor each set the pace in their most recent start. In the Fountain of Youth, Three Rules led into the stretch before finishing third, 6 1/4 lengths behind Gunnevera. Three Rules has lost his last three starts after launching his career with five consecutive victories, including a sweep here of the Florida Sire Series at 2.

Three Rules is also poorly drawn, breaking from just inside Gunnevera in what should end up being post 9.

“He’s very fast, so the post shouldn’t be a problem,” said trainer Jose Pinchin. “I don’t think he has to be on the lead – in striking distance, but not on the lead. A mile and one-eighth is still a little bit of a question mark, but I think he’s improving and that his last race was his best yet, even though he got beat.”

State of Honor will race without blinkers after finishing second behind the heavily favored Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby. He also led to the stretch before finishing third behind division leader McCraken and Tapwrit in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 11.