With other early speed, Encino a fade as short-priced favorite
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The morning line lists Encino as the 9-5 favorite in the featured eighth race Friday at Churchill Downs, and if that price proves accurate, bettors might want to get involved – not playing but laying.
Of course, the everyday wagering menu in America doesn’t offer the chance, unlike in some overseas markets, to “lay” horses – that is, bet on them losing. In the parimutuel system, though, underpriced horses necessarily create overpriced horses, which could happen in Friday’s featured eighth.
The Friday feature, carded for 1 1/16 miles on turf, has two allowance conditions – nonwinners of four other than, and nonwinners of two other than on turf this year – and a $175,000 claiming option. The total possible purse is $148,000, and this is a stakes race in all but name. The race drew only six entrants, but four have a TimeformUS early pace rating greater than 100, so things should shape up on the fast side.
That’s one concern for Encino, a highly capable 5-year-old gelding with a bankroll closing on $1 million. Encino finished fourth in a race at this class level May 21 at Churchill, but don’t hold that against him: The field he faced that day came up meaningfully tougher than this one. The concerns are that Encino might not have run as well in three subsequent starts, that he has done nearly all his best work on or just off the lead, and is drawn inside other pace players.
Yinzer could in fact wind up favored with stronger recent form than Encino, an outside draw, and, perhaps, more pace than any of the other front-runners. When Yinzer returned from a half-year layoff in July, having hit a career peak in his final start before the long break, he took his performances to a new level. He ran well winning a second-level Saratoga turf allowance in his first race back, regressed in his second start back, and on Sept. 24 at Churchill turned in a career-best showing, going wire to wire on a strong pace in a third-level turf allowance over 1 1/8 miles.
Yinzer can outrun Encino but might have two horses with whom to deal late in the game, Neat and Air Recruit.
Trainer Mike Maker claimed 5-year-old Neat for $80,000 in September, added blinkers to a mercurial horse who has often been his own worst enemy, and got a Gulfstream Park turf handicap win out of Neat on Oct. 3.
Air Recruit will get first run on Neat and can pull off a minor upset if he applies all the lessons in rating and relaxing imparted by the Arnaud Delacour stable.
“When he was young, he was always too aggressive and stuff,” Delacour said. “We wanted him to sit off the pace.”
He did that when second in a long-layoff comeback at Colonial Downs and again when winning the Oceanport in September at Monmouth (a race in which Neat was third). Things went awry last out in the Artie Schiller at Belmont, where Air Recruit’s jockey tapped him for positional speed out of the gate, which triggered Air Recruit’s impulse to go too hard. He pulled mightily while racing just behind a hot pace and faded late.
“He had an outside draw and was in the clear, never really covered up. The one-turn mile, they can go fast, and the pace collapsed,” Delacour said.
The morning line sets Air Recruit at 9-2, much more appealing than the 9-5 on Encino.
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