Opening-day card looks chalky; traditional pick six returns
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Finding winners is easier than filling races at Los Alamitos, which begins a two-week daytime Thoroughbred meet Friday.
While the win rate of favorites soared to 42 percent the past two years of daytime racing, field size went the other way. Los Alamitos averaged 5.86 horses per race at its June-July meet, a struggle it hopes to mitigate during the September season that runs Friday through Sunday for the next two weeks.
Los Alamitos will run seven races Friday, one less than scheduled. All but one race drew six entrants, due partly to a challenging calendar. Los Alamitos fall is sandwiched between the lucrative Del Mar summer meet that ended Sunday and the Breeders’ Cup-flavored fall meet at Santa Anita that begins Sept. 29.
As expected, challenges facing Los Alamitos racing secretary Jordan Castaneda are financial.
“Like everything else, it boils down to money,” Castaneda said.
Los Alamitos purses are significantly lower than Del Mar, and Los Alamitos is not part of the ship-and-win program that benefits Del Mar and Santa Anita.
Despite the difficult environment, Los Alamitos owner Dr. Ed Allred initiated improvements to the backside and increased stakes purses, including the Sept. 23 Dark Mirage Stakes for fillies and mares, from $75,000 to $125,000. The purse of the Capote Stakes for 2-year-olds on closing day, Sept. 24, jumped from $75,000 to $100,000. Both increases are contingent on six runners.
First-week stakes include the $75,000 E.B. Johnston Stakes for California-breds on Saturday, expected to be led by Kings River Knight. The Los Alamitos Special for older horses on Sunday will offer a $100,00 purse with six runners or more.
While many horsemen use September as a hiatus, bettors look forward to reacquainting themselves with a popular wager. The Los Alamitos pick six is a $2 wager with a traditional structure – 70 percent of the net pool to perfect tickets or carryover, 30 percent to consolations. Takeout rate is 23.68 percent, which beats the 46 percent effective takeout of a single-ticket jackpot pick six.
The pick six at Los Alamitos carries over roughly once every four days, though a carryover from Friday would be a surprise due to short fields and seemingly reliable favorites. At each of the last six daytime meets at Los Alamitos, favorites won at 41 percent or higher (42 percent combined).
The Los Alamitos pick six, on the last six races daily, begins Friday in race 2. Every race Friday is a claiming race or claiming starter. Race-2 dropper Bella Baby, trained by Librado Boracio, will be ridden by Ramon Vazquez, leading rider at the 2022 September meet. Her main rival is dropper Rose Girl.
Race-4 entrant Indy’s Star benefits by a class drop and return to Los Alamitos in a $12,500 claiming starter sprint.
In race 5, an $8,000 claiming starter, My Man Bags looks tough to beat.
The card ends with a $10,000 claiming sprint, race 7. It includes potential standout Midnight Special, ridden by Vazquez and trained by Martin Valenzuela. First post is 1 p.m. daily.
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