One Lucky Dane set for 3-year-old debut in allowance
ARCADIA, Calif. – One Lucky Dane hasn’t raced since Nov. 1, but the race in which he competed has proven to be quite productive. Texas Red won it, Carpe Diem was second, Upstart third. The form of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has more than held up, and now One Lucky Dane will look to continue that trend in the second race Thursday at Santa Anita.
One Lucky Dane came into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile perceived as having a decent chance. He was 7-1 in a field of 11. But he had a difficult trip. Breaking from post No. 9, he was fanned five paths wide around the first turn, remained wide down the backstretch, and couldn’t gain any appreciable ground in the stretch.
But the strength of the Juvenile has been validated again and again. Texas Red was second in the San Vicente Stakes in his only start since then at a distance short of optimum. Carpe Diem was a romping winner of the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start at 3. Upstart won the Holy Bull Stakes, then was disqualified from an apparent victory in the Fountain of Youth.
The Great War, fourth in the Juvenile, won the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway in his next start before a severe bleeding episode in the John Battaglia Memorial took him off the Kentucky Derby trail.
Mr. Z, fifth in the Juvenile, is winless in four starts since but has finished in the money every time, his best performance a close third in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
Souper Colossal, seventh in the Juvenile, won the Texas Glitter sprinting on turf at Gulfstream in his next start.
Even the last-place finisher in the Juvenile, Daredevil, has come back well, with a second-place finish in the highly rated Swale Stakes.
One Lucky Dane has just four rivals in Thursday’s race, a one-mile optional claimer in which four horses – One Lucky Dane included – are using their first-level allowance condition. Papa Kade is the only horse entered for an $80,000 claiming price.
Also of interest Thursday is race 3, a downhill turf sprint for 3-year-old allowance fillies in which Long Hot Summer returns. She won her only two starts last year, both at Del Mar, including the Generous Portion Stakes.
KEY CONTENDERS
One Lucky Dane (Last 3 Beyers: 87-95-75)
◗ He improved sharply once able to go two turns. His career-best Beyer Speed Figure was earned when defeating maidens Oct. 4 at Santa Anita going one mile. He won by 9 1/2 lengths.
◗ The runner-up in that maiden race was Prospect Park, who most recently was second to Dortmund in the San Felipe on March 7.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 5 One Lucky Dane. Trainer Bob Baffert is 30-15-4-3 with a $3.86 ROI over the past five years in dirt routes following a layoff of 150 days or more. – Mike Hogan
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Commute (Beyers: 86-38)
◗ He improved significantly in his second start Feb. 22, defeating maidens while sprinting. His sharp early speed makes him the one to catch as he stretches out around two turns.
Harmonic (Last 3 Beyers: 80-61-67)
◗ His lone dirt try is a throw-out. He was in the maiden race won by One Lucky Dane but clipped heels and fell.
◗ Since then, he has raced on turf and synthetic, most recently finishing fourth in the El Camino Real Derby. He was fanned about seven paths wide into the lane, was late to change leads, then finished with some interest.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 Papa Kade. Trainer Doug O'Neill is 34-10-6-3 with a $3.58 ROI over the past five years going synthetic to dirt with last-out winners. – Mike Hogan
– additional reporting by Brad Free