Once again, Baffert seems to have lock on Oak Leaf

The roster of leading 2-year-old fillies on the backstretch at Santa Anita changed significantly recently when Miss Monica, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante on Sept. 5, was transferred to trainer Bob Baffert’s stable in Kentucky.

Miss Monica remains on schedule for a start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 30 at Keeneland. Whether she will have any California counterparts in that race will be better known after Saturday’s Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita.

The winner of the $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes receives a fees-paid berth to the BC Juvenile Fillies. Baffert trains half of the six runners in the Oak Leaf – Holmby, winner of the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes in August, and the maiden race winners Deluge and Quattro Passi.

Baffert has won a record 14 runnings of the Oak Leaf since 1997. A 15th is likely on Saturday. Remarkably, none of Baffert’s 14 winners of the Oak Leaf, or the Chandelier Stakes as the race was known from 2012-23, have won the BC Juvenile Fillies.

Baffert has won the BC Juvenile Fillies twice, with Silverbulletday in 1998 and Indian Blessing in 2007. They won stakes in advance of the BC Juvenile Fillies in Kentucky and New York, respectively. Of Baffert’s Oak Leaf-Chandelier winners, five have finished second in the BC Juvenile Fillies, including Explora at Del Mar last October. Explora is a four-time stakes winner this year.

On Saturday, Deluge starts from the outside post after winning a maiden race at five furlongs on turf at Del Mar in her debut on Aug. 28. Baffert prefers to run his leading 2-year-olds on dirt but said Deluge started on turf out of necessity.

Baffert said he was more impressed by the way Deluge ran in her first start than her desire to race on grass.

Owned by Michael Talla, Deluge closed from fourth to win by a neck under jockey Juan Hernandez, who has the mount Saturday.

“I threw her on the turf to get a race into her,” he said. “She didn’t like the turf. She won, but she didn’t like the turf.”

Holmby finished third by 7 3/4 lengths to Miss Monica in the Del Mar Debutante at seven furlongs in her third start. Holmby was beaten 1 1/2 lengths for second by Crazy Hot Mess, who is now based in Kentucky with trainer Peter Miller.

Holmby closed from third to win the Sorrento, and from fifth to finish third in the Del Mar Debutante.

Quattro Passi starts from the inside post on Saturday after an electrifying win by 9 1/4 lengths in a maiden race at six furlongs on Sept. 6 at Del Mar in her second start. Ridden that day by Mike Smith, Quattro Passi closed from third to take the lead on the turn.

Smith, who rides Quattro Passi in the Oak Leaf, said Wednesday that the filly finished in a manner that indicates a longer race is within reach.

“She gave me every sign that she should,” Smith said. “I’m hoping that it moves her up a little going two turns. If that’s the case, then she’s got a really good chance.”

With her post on Saturday, Smith expects to have Quattro Passi forward in the initial furlong.

“I’m sure we’ll come away running and see where that puts her,” he said. “She doesn’t need the lead. She should be naturally quick to get away.”

The other three runners include the maidens Domain Expansion and Janie Not Jeanie, and Free Closer, winner of the California Thoroughbred Breeders Association Stakes for statebred fillies at 5 1/2 furlongs on Aug. 2.

Free Closer, trained by Michael McCarthy, finished fourth by 10 lengths in the Del Mar Debutante after a wide trip.

Domain Expansion and Janie Not Jeanie have started at a mile.

Domain Expansion overcame a slow start to finish second in a maiden race at a mile on Sept. 5 at Del Mar in her first start for trainer Leonard Powell.

Janie Not Jeanie, who was supplemented to the Oak Leaf for $4,000 when entries were taken Monday, was fifth of six in a maiden race at a mile on turf Aug. 14 at Del Mar, but only third in a maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs on Sept. 18 at Los Alamitos Race Course in her fourth start.

A win by fillies not trained by Baffert would be a surprise.