Olive Branch may have edge in Astoria

ELMONT, N.Y. – Three facts stand out in the past performances for the $200,000 Astoria Stakes – nearly every filly in the race won her maiden either racing on or with the lead, nearly all earned their diplomas at the abbreviated distance of 4 1/2 furlongs, and the majority did so competing at venues other than Belmont Park, where the 5 1/2-furlong Astoria will be decided Thursday.

Those facts are not lost on trainer Rick Violette, whose Olive Branch won her career debut going five furlongs and did so from off the pace at her home base of Belmont Park.

“There’s never enough edge in a race like this, but I think some of those things are certainly in our favor,” Violette said. “She had worked behind horses in the morning prior to her first start, and she repeated what she did in the morning in her race. One of the best compliments a jockey can give you after a 2-year-old maiden race is that your horse ran like an older horse. I also don’t know how 4 1/2-furlong form translates to 5 1/2-furlong form, so I think the fact we’ve already been five-eighths, and she’s already had experience taking dirt, is in our favor.”

Olive Branch is one of only two horses Violette purchased out of the OBS March sale for owner Ralph Evans. The other was Random Walk, a colt who won his debut by 5 3/4 lengths with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure here last week.

“The scary thing is the colt ran a Beyer 25 points higher than she did, and he never outworked her,” Violette said. “She always did things easier when the two breezed together, so I think she might be a little better than the 65 Beyer she got in her one start.”

Seven of Oliver Branch’s eight rivals in the Astoria are undefeated, with Golden Mischief, beaten a neck as a 2-5 favorite in her only start, the only maiden in the field.

Trainer Wesley Ward’s Lightning Dove may have been the most impressive maiden winner of that group, drawing off to a 3 3/4-length victory while completing 4 1/2 furlongs in a swift 51.16 seconds April 28 at Keeneland. Lightning Dove is by Uncle Mo and out of three-time stakes winner Thunders Dove.

China Grove won her debut at Keeneland the same day as Lightning Dove while coming within one-hundredth of a second of her final time, completing 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.17 while winning in gate-to-wire fashion.

Key Contenders

Olive Branch, by Speightstown
Last Beyer: 65

Drew the rail, which does not concern Violette. “Hopefully, she can leave there running, let the speed develop in front of her, and then run on from there, just like the first time.”

Lightning Dove, by Uncle Mo
Last Beyer: NA

Ward owns a 24 percent win rate with an ROI of $1.69 with his 2-year-olds racing at Belmont Park over the last five years.