Old Persian might have best shot of Europeans

ARCADIA, Calif. – Dispute if you want the “Championships” part of “Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships,” but there’s undeniable truth in the “World” part of it.

There are 19 overseas horses, hailing from Korea, Japan, Ireland, England, and France, entered to compete in Saturday Breeders’ Cup races. The overseas invaders have legitimate chances in all the day’s turf races save the Turf Sprint, so let’s have a look at them race by race.

Turf

There are four Europeans in the Turf, but clearly the principals are Anthony Van Dyck and Old Persian. Anthony Van Dyck won the Derby at Epsom this past May, and it’s great to have a Derby winner at the Breeders’ Cup, but in terms of relevance to the BC Turf, Old Persian’s major victory this season, in the Dubai Sheema Classic, counts for more.

The Derby presents a complex set of challenges from a young horse, twists and turns, ups and downs through the irregular course, which is interesting but not especially applicable to the flat, left-handed oval that is Santa Anita’s grass course.

Another flat, left-handed turf track? Meydan, site of the Sheema Classic. No doubt Old Persian pulled a perfect trip in what was not the greatest Sheema field ever assembled, but his turn of foot put that race to bed with 300 yards still to run. Old Persian was solid if unspectacular racing right-handed in the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, and while he beat a lackluster bunch in the Northern Dancer in September at Woodbine, that start merely was a means to an end – this one. Trainer Charlie Appleby has found a lot of Breeders’ Cup success, and Old Persian has looked the part here this week.

Anthony Van Dyck last was seen finishing third in the Irish Champion, a race over a relatively flat track and around left-handed turns, but the 1 1/4 miles of that race probably was shorter than he prefers. It looks like trainer Aidan O’Brien long has targeted the Turf, which is a good thing, but the Derby really is the only marker on Van Dyck’s form suggesting he deserves to be second favorite in this race. He does have what appears to be a pacemaker here in the overmatched Mount Everest.

The German horse Alounak finished about three lengths behind Old Persian in the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, but he stays 1 1/2 miles, his Canadian International was solid, and he can get into the superfecta on his best day.

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Mile

There are a bevy of Euros, six of them (Without Parole never has raced in America but is based in New York with Chad Brown), in the Mile, a race that gets more confusing the more you look at it. Let’s start at the bottom and work our way forward.

Trais Fluors has neither the class nor the speed to make a dent in this race unless he moves massively forward in his North American debut.

Trainer David O’Meara, based in Northern England, has been excellent with his North American shippers and should be respected but might not be holding an especially strong hand with Lord Glitters. Lord Glitters won the Win and You’re In Queen Anne, which was, to be frank, a poor Group 1 this year. He takes a long time to wind up and probably prefers a longer homestretch. Suedois we know suits American racing since he won the 2017 Shadwell Turf Mile and was a solid fourth in the BC Mile a few weeks later. At 8, he can’t quite be the same horse, and his close third in the Shadwell last month should make you think more about the strength of the Shadwell than the strength of Suedois’s candidacy here.

You can throw out Hey Gaman’s last two starts since he appears to be a horse that favors firmer surfaces and struggled over soft and very soft going in those races. This is a strong-travelling horse who likes to lead or stay close, and he should be a major part of a moderate pace with any kind of break. He can outrun his odds.

Space Traveller lacks Group 1 credentials but is an improving 3-year-old who really should suit the faster pace and faster turf of American racing. He needs things to shape his way (they didn’t three back in his subpar run at Goodwood) and the lack of true speed in this Mile hurts him, but don’t be surprised if he crashes the superfecta.

Circus Maximus is the highest rated of the Euros and has run well in all his starts at or about one mile, be they on firmer or softer turf, down a straight course or around a bend. His strengths are tactical speed and a fighter’s mentality, but he lacks push-button acceleration and at a short price should be considered vulnerable to a fast-finishing American like Got Stormy or Uni.

Sprint

The Japan-based 5-year-old Matera Sky beat the likes of Imperial Hint when he was second to X Y Jet in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. That was a radical outlier in terms of performance level and post 10 could leave him lying far off the rail around this race’s turn.

Filly and Mare Turf

Apparently, our overseas friends aren’t too afraid of Sistercharlie since they sent half the continent here to face her in the Filly and Mare Turf.

Seven European-based fillies and mares will take on the Chad Brown-trained favorite. Sistercharlie will beat them all if she’s on her game, but even if she is, there might be some value underneath the favorite if you can find the right European.

That could be Billesdon Brook, who is 10-1 on the morning line and should be at least that price at post time. Billesdon Brook hails from the yard of trainer Richard Hannon, and both he and his father, Richard Hannon Sr., have mixed abysmal luck and a habit of sending the wrong sort of horse to amass a poor Breeders’ Cup record. Billesdon Brook looks like the right sort of horse. Her connections clearly have avoided anything resembling soft ground, so the Santa Anita course should suit her, and she has been relatively lightly campaigned this year with a month break into this race. This filly won the English 2000 Guineas in 2018 and has subsequently nudged at top-level form, finally breaking through in her most recent start, the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. There, she was full of run, found room, and powered home impressively. The distance is a question, but Billesdon Brook stays farther than the one-mile trip at which she’s been racing and certainly has the pedigree to go this far.

Fanny Logan is even shorter on top-level credentials than Billesdon Brook, but trainer John Gosden has brought her along patiently since an early season run at Royal Ascot went amiss. Firm turf and 1 1/4 miles – this race in a nutshell – are what Fanny Logan wants, and she’s been a different horse since Gosden added blinkers four races ago. Post 12 – not ideal.

Fleeting did her best to power through the Ascot quagmire on British Champions Day and stayed on admirably over ground likely not her favorite. She was better than Villa Marina in the Prix de l’Opera, just running out of real estate following a tougher trip than the winner, and she also had early trouble in the Beverly D. at Arlington.

Iridessa might have gone in the BC Mile had Magical stayed in the Filly and Mare Turf, but when Magical was retired, Iridessa wound up here. She was found wanting for speed last out when Billesdon Brook outkicked her in the Sun Chariot, but her Pretty Polly Stakes win over solid Magic Wand at this 10-furlong trip puts her in the conversation. Her trainer, Joseph O’Brien, is enthused about Santa Anita’s quick-playing turf.

Castle Lady comes here by way of Keeneland, where she gave futile chase to loose-on-lead Cambier Parc in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and finished a solid second. Solid seconds in Grade 1’s restricted to 3-year-old fillies are not going to cut it in this very deep spot.

Trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias thinks Villa Marina will suit firm, fast-playing turf here just as well as she did the very soft Longchamp ground winning the Prix de l’Opera. Maybe, but maybe not, and Villa Marina hit a peak last out in her eighth start of the season.

Just Wonderful is looking for her first win of 2019. She won’t get it here and would be a surprise to crack the top five.

Dirt Mile

Blue Chipper has been making kimchi out of any horse set before him in Korea. What that amounts to vis-à-vis a Breeders’ Cup race is anyone’s guess. He trains with verve over the local surface but probably won’t class up to a strong field in the Dirt Mile.