Ocean Downs: Analysis for Sunday 7/5 and Monday 7/6

SUNDAY, JULY 5 and MONDAY, JULY 6, 2026

STATS: 7-23 / $30.20 (-$15.80)

Sunday, July 5

Race 1: Buck Gray Jr Memorial Pace – 2YO Fillies

Races like these often include a standout and that’s what we have with (2) ELLYEA. On paper she’s about 25 lengths faster than these. Only question is the debut on the half mile. Since we’re looking at a short price on the win end I’m looking at a cold exacta with (4) PURE ENERGY, one of two fillies debuting for veteran trainer Steve LeBlanc. She’s out of an Aussie bred from the same owners here who banked over $660K in his career and picks up Jonathan Roberts for her debut.

Race 4: NW2501 in last 4 starts Pace

Looks like a battle of the class droppers with (3) ROSE RUN ZOAR getting the call over (1) ONE COOL CAT. I think the Brittany Bounds trainee will be forced to stalk #1 tonight and that may work out in his favor as his final-quarter times indicate. Narrowing to a cold Tri with (5) TOUGH OLD HICKORY in the third spot, who will be coming from midpack and likes to finish on the fringes.

Monday, July 6

Race 6: Maryland Sire Stakes 3YO Colts & Geldings Pace

All eyes will be on the undefeated (4) BETTER GON who went 7 for 7 as a freshman and banked close to $130K. The Wisher, Jr. trainee needed four qualifiers to record a flat mile and that’s a bit concerning, especially at a short price. (2) MICHELLE’S KYLE hasn’t excelled as a 3YO but is clearly more accomplished than the rest in here and could be around to pick up the pieces if the favorite falters.

Race 9: NW2501 in last 4 starts Pace

(4) MASTER SPLINTER is 1 for 47 over the last two seasons but this is one of the softer spots he’s seen in some time and he can be more aggressively handled from this post. (3) LYONS STEALTH drops for the fourth consecutive start and draws much better but has little current form; likely overbet.