Occult comes off the bench in Serena's Song

The 4-year-old filly Occult never has raced against older horses and hasn’t raced at all since Oct. 28, but seems destined for odds-on favoritism Sunday at Monmouth Park in the $100,000 Serena’s Song Stakes.

That’s probably merited. Occult lacks Grade 1 credentials but has the makings of a solid Grade 2-type horse in the older filly and mare middle-distance dirt division. She faces seven foes in the Serena’s Song, a one mile and 70-yard contest, and to be honest, her rivals are a ragtag bunch.

Yet one need only go back to May 4 to find a cautionary tale. Randomized, making her first start since a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, looked like she couldn’t lose her 4-year-old debut, the Grade 2 Ruffian at Aqueduct. Her odds a tick over 1-2, she set the pace and sailed into the homestretch on a clear lead – only to be run down through the final furlong by 25-1 shot Soul of an Angel.

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Future Hall of Famer Chad Brown trains both Randomized and Occult, and the fillies breezed together at least once at Payson Park this spring, preparing in Florida for their 2024 debuts. Online workout video of a team drill April 20 shows Randomized on the inside getting the better of Occult – not unexpected, because best race to best race, Randomized is the better horse. That, however, was not the case last summer in the Grade 1 Acorn, where Occult finished third, Randomized sixth.

The Acorn was good, but Occult’s next race, the Monmouth Oaks, probably was better. Racing seventh behind a moderate pace, Occult stormed to the lead in upper stretch and drew clear to a 10 1/2-length victory. Foggy Night, the runner-up, returned to win the $200,000 Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx. Occult ended her 3-year-old campaign with a pair of solid third-place finishes in the Grade 1 Cotillion and in the Grade 2 Mother Goose. Given the way she ran last summer at Monmouth and her entry in the Serena’s Song, she’s a natural candidate for the Grade 2, $500,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes on July 20, Monmouth’s big race in the division. Javier Castellano rides Occult for the first time.

Finding a better-priced alternative to the heavy favorite requires a deep dive – and may be fruitless. Venti Valentine and Kathleen O. could contend if this were spring 2022. Both mares hit their peak, at least Beyer Speed Figure-wise, about two years ago and recently haven’t been fast enough to contend. Lasix isn’t permitted in Monmouth stakes, and both Traverse and Sunset Louise have fallen far short of their best racing without it. At least those four horses at some point have been fast enough to muster a challenge, which can’t be said of Frosty O Toole and Beach Daze.

Cheetara, though unlikely, is the most likely upsetter. Purchased at auction last fall by Mike Repole for $135,000, 7-year-old Cheetara makes her second start for trainer Todd Pletcher. Her first, on March 9 at Gulfstream Park in the Hurricane Bertie, yielded a tame fifth-place finish. But Pletcher stretches Cheetara out to a route for the first time in 15 starts. Cheetara way back in October 2021 won a two-turn Keeneland allowance race, and in her native Chile was a minor stakes winner over 1 1/4 miles.

But Brown over the last five years with favorites in Monmouth stakes races is 36-21-5-2. That’s a 58 percent strike rate. Occult returns a winner.

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