O'Brien pair early favorites in watered-down field for 2000 Guineas

The first classic race of the American season, the Kentucky Derby, lost it’s favorite, Omaha Beach, just three days before the race. The 2000 Guineas, the first European classic, lost its leading light, Too Darn Hot, about two weeks ago.

Omaha Beach, sidelined with an entrapped epiglottis, assumed his favorite’s role only after winning the Arkansas Derby in mid-April, but Too Darn Hot had been the Guineas favorite all winter before an untimely splint injury set him back.

Too Darn Hot isn’t the only talented 3-year-old missing the 2000 Guineas, a straight-course mile at Newmarket run Saturday at 10:35 Eastern, about 7 ½ hours before the Derby, and perhaps it is out of habit that early bettors have focused on a pair of Aidan O’Brien-trained colts, Magna Grecia and Ten Sovereigns, the two early favorites for the 2000 Guineas.

O’Brien has won the Guineas nine times overall and three of the last four years. His 2018 winner, Saxon Warrior, captured the Newmarket classic racing for the first time since winning the Racing Post Trophy Stakes, since renamed the Vertem Futurity, during the autumn of his 2-year-old season. That was the same pattern for Camelot, who won the Vertem Futurity in 2011 and the 2012 Guineas, and Magna Grecia is following in that pair’s footsteps.

He and Ten Sovereigns both were trading at about 9-2 Thursday morning with British bookmakers. Magna Grecia drew post 17 in a 19-horse field and has Donnacha O’Brien named to ride. Ten Sovereigns has post 5 and Ryan Moore. Ten Sovereign, another colt making his first start at 3, displayed obvious talent at age 2, winning all three of his starts, the last of them in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over the Newmarket course. But Ten Sovereigns, a son of the good sprinter No Nay Never, has yet to race beyond six furlongs and the question around him is one of stamina.

Also receiving ample support are Skardu and Madhmoon, each of whom already has made one start during their 3-year-old season. Skardu won the Group 3 Craven Stakes going a mile at Newmarket on April 7, his first start since a winning debut over the same course Sept. 28. Trainer William Haggas cautions that Skardu will require further improvement to contend Saturday, but that’s not out of the question. Ireland-based Madhmoon was beaten a half-length on soft ground April 7 in a seven-furlong Guineas trial at Leopardstown, but comfortably won his two races as a juvenile, both at one mile, defeating a decent O’Brien horses in each start, first Sydney Opera House, then Broome. Madhmoon has every right to take a step forward in the Guineas.

Longer prices worth a look include Set Piece, Urban Icon, and Shine So Bright. The course as of Thursday was rated good-to-firm but rain was considered possible and could lead to at least a mild downgrade in conditions before race time.