Oaklawn Park betting strategies for Arkansas Derby Day

With 14 races Saturday at Oaklawn Park, it’s a good idea to formulate strategy. It helps to go in with a wagering plan that is based on vulnerable short prices, can’t-miss favorites, live longshots, and potentially profitable wagers. A bettor needs a blueprint. Like this:

Vulnerable favorite

Race 1 exacta (1 p.m. ET) – The most vulnerable program favorite Saturday comes early. Timely Tradition (1) is fast enough to win this starter allowance, but only if she somehow reproduces the best race of her 26-start career, six weeks ago in New York. It is a reach to expect the 6-year-old to match her career high, and certainly not at 3-1 program odds.

Full of Grace (2) and Miss Imperial (3) are the best front-runners. If they ding-dong, stretch-runner First Alternate (7) can win outright or slip into the exacta at 6-1.

Recommendation: First Alternate $2 win, and $2 exacta box key First Alternate with Full of Grace and Miss Imperial. That is 7 with 2, 3; and 2, 3 with 7. Total wagers: $10.

Exacta play

Race 6 exacta (3:44 p.m. ET) – Friar’s Road (4) made the Daily Racing Form “horses to watch” list following his runner-up comeback at Santa Anita. He galloped out super past the wire and should appreciate the increase from one mile, to 1 1/8 miles.

Friar’s Road is the 7-2 program favorite, which might be sufficient for a win bet. But a tepid pace scenario gives longer-odds entrants Second Line David (2) and Wild Union (3) a chance to outrun their price and complete the exacta.

Recommendation: $4 exacta Friar’s Road with Second Line David and Wild Union. That is: 4 with 2, 3 and $1 exactas in reverse: 2, 3 with 4. Total wagers: $10.

Solid favorite

Race 7 (4:16 p.m. ET) – Want a “can’t miss” favorite? Gamine (8) is a long, tall filly with a physique that Bob Baffert compared to undefeated graded stakes-winning colt Authentic. That was after Gamine won her debut in a landslide and earned a big fig. Gamine is the 7-5 favorite, a price that would be a gift. Recommendation: Bet Gamine to win.

:: Arkansas Derby: News, fields, past performances, and more

Win play

Race 8 (4:47 p.m. ET) – Benintendi (1), the likely pacesetter first time long, is 8-1. At that price, he is worth backing. Recommendation: Bet Benintendi to win.

Pick three play

Races 9-11 pick three (5:19 p.m. ET) – Two deep allowance routes are followed by a slam dunk in race 11. The pick three is a 50-cent wager; the $10 play is five-deep, four-deep, single.

Race 9 – Popular Kid (1) is a nine-time winner in top form; Fearless (3) is favored based on a blowout allowance two back and a bad-trip alibi last out; Sonny Smack (5) rallies late; Rotation (7) can improve second start back; Lord Guinness (8) is a double-digit longshot dropping in class. Five-deep: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8

Race 10 – Ginobili (2) wants to sprint, but will set the pace; Amen Corner (6) is listed at an absurd 50-1 with a better-than-looked local debut to build on; Candy Tycoon (7) drops from a Grade 1; Rushie (11) finished second to Charlatan last out. Four-deep: 2, 6, 7, 11

Race 11 – Charlatan (1) figures to be long gone in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Recommendation: 50-cent pick three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 with 2, 6, 7, 11 with 1. Cost: $10.

Swing for the Fences play

Race 11 exacta/trifecta (6:29 p.m. ET) – It is possible to swing for the fences even with a low-odds favorite on top. Charlatan (1) should lead gate to wire; 30-1 outsider Mo Mosa (3) is better than his morning line.

Mo Mosa bombed his initial dirt start two back, then the light bulb went on. In a race dominated by speed, Mo Mosa dropped back, finished big, and galloped out huge. Mo Mosa is getting good. He might not beat Charlatan, but Mo Mosa can hit the board.

Recommendation: $6 exacta Charlatan with Mo Mosa – 1 with 3. And, 50-cent trifecta Charlatan with “all” with Mo Mosa – 1 with “all” with 3. That is $4.50. Total bets: $10.50. (A discretionary win bet on Mo Mosa would provide “insurance.”)

Odds play

Race 12 (7:04 p.m. ET) – Trophy Chaser (2) at 12-1 would be a dream. He defeated King for a Day last out in a highly rated Grade 3. King for a Day last year beat Maximum Security. This is a class test for Trophy Chaser and a gut check for bettors. What price is the right price? Recommendation: Bet Trophy Chaser to win at 5-1 or higher.