Not your father's Big Cap prep

ARCADIA, Calif. – A second-level allowance Friday at Santa Anita is an unlikely prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap for class handicappers who adhere to tradition.

“Except by accident, Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses.”

Handicapping pioneer and author James Quinn wrote it in “The Handicapper’s Condition Book,” defining a Grade 1 horse as one who “has won two or more Grade 1 races; or has won one such event, plus Grade 2 events . . .”

For a long time, the truism applied to the Santa Anita Handicap in early March. But racing and handicapping has changed. “The Handicapper’s Condition Book” was published in 1986, prior to the Dubai World Cup or Pegasus World Cup.

Once upon a time, the Big Cap was a prime objective for the nation’s handicap division. Those days are gone. The $750,000 purse of the Big Cap pales when compared with the $12 million Pegasus in January and $10 million Dubai World Cup in March.

As the Big Cap purse declines by comparison, so has the depth of the fields. This is not to disparage recent winners Shared Belief or Lava Man, or a knock on the preliminary favorites for this year’s running, Midnight Storm or Mor Spirit. But a 2017 Big Cap without Hoppertunity (Dubai bound) or Arrogate (to be determined) falls short of excellence.

This has been happening for nearly 20 years. California-based horses who skipped the Big Cap to run in Dubai include California Chrome, in 2015 and 2016; Hoppertunity, 2016; Game On Dude, 2012; Well Armed, 2009; Pleasantly Perfect and Medaglia d’Oro, 2004; Captain Steve, 2001; Malek, 1999; and Silver Charm, 1998.

Absent the cream of the division, recent Big Caps were watered down and often won by horses who were overmatched according to traditional evaluation. The familiar saw – “Grade 1 races, Grade 1 horses” – no longer applies.

Two recent examples are Game On Dude in 2011 and Melatonin in 2016. Both entered the Big Cap lacking credentials to suggest an imminent Grade 1 victory. Game On Dude’s top achievement was an age-restricted Grade 3 at Lone Star; Melatonin previously finished second in a Grade 3 sprint on turf.

Game On Dude (seven starts) and Melatonin (10 starts) were lightly raced heading into the Big Cap and making their second start following a layoff. More important – both entered the Big Cap off a win in a second-level allowance in January or February. Pay attention Friday at Santa Anita because that 1 1/16-mile race will be run again.

Game On Dude’s allowance win earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, but to anyone watching, the wide-trip win was better than the figure. As for Melatonin, his allowance win earned a 97 for the fast time, 1:41.97.

Allowance-to-Big Cap upset winners Game On Dude ($31.60) and Melatonin ($34.60) turned out to be legitimate. Game On Dude won two more Big Caps, seven more Grade 1 races and earned $6.4 million. Melatonin won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita two starts later.

The question in race 7 on Friday at Santa Anita – are there Big Cap contenders? The second-level allowance includes two with past performances similar to Game On Dude and Melatonin’s.

Bistraya has started just 10 times, with two wins. He is vastly improved since transferring to trainer Keith Desormeaux. He could be lone speed. The race Friday is the third following a layoff for Bistraya.

Hoffenheim has started seven times, winning his last two by a nose. His figures are modest (85 top), but at least he learned how to win. Previously trained by Bob Baffert, Hoffenheim will make his first start for trainer Doug O’Neill and his first in two months.

It is ludicrous to suggest that Bistraya or Hoffenheim are legitimate Big Cap contenders. It would have been absurd to suggest likewise for Game On Dude or Melatonin.

Yet neither the race nor accompanying handicapping guidelines are what they used to be. The Big Cap is less big, and the class factor is less relevant.

Any list of 2017 early Big Cap contenders probably should wait until the seventh race Friday at Santa Anita becomes official.

Bistraya and Hoffenheim are not Grade 1 horses. Nowadays, that does not preclude them winning a Grade 1 race.