Not all Europeans relish soft turf

Golden Horn is something special, even by Breeders’ Cup standards, as the first same-year winner of the English Derby and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s two most famous races, to start at the Breeders’ Cup.

Golden Horn will be heavily favored in the $3 million Turf, and if things go well for the overseas horses, he could put an exclamation point on a very successful two-day run. The Mile and the Filly and Mare Turf both are very much open to European domination, but the question for many horses this week, Golden Horn most of all: How soft will Keeneland’s rain-soaked grass course be?

Classic

GLENEAGLES finally raced Oct. 17 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot after being scratched three times because of soft ground. The ground for the QE II was against him too, but trainer Aidan O’Brien decided to run, then somewhat rued the choice when Gleneagles struggled home sixth.

The BC Classic in part motivated O’Brien to keep Gleneagles in the QE II; it had been four months since Gleneagles raced, and he needed a race. It’s a guessing game whether Gleneagles handles dirt. His sire, Galileo, is out of Urban Sea, whose sire’s sire was Mr. Prospector. Gleneagles’s second dam is Mariah’s Storm, a dirt horse and the sire of Giant’s Causeway, whose offspring regularly handle dirt and who finished second in the 2000 BC Classic.

Turf

GOLDEN HORN’s merits are obvious, and he shows no sign of tailing off after a demanding season. His coat is great, his energy is great, and trainer John Gosden said he shipped to American about 4 1/2 pounds heavier than he went into the Arc.

The concern is soft turf. Golden Horn got over the course fine in a Thursday gallop, however, and the ground figures to be considerably drier Saturday: Frankie Dettori thinks it will be “good.” Gosden said on firm ground he would be as confident as a trainer could be. If it’s soft, think twice about that short price.

FOUND ran in the Arc, came back two weeks later on British Champions Day, and is back again on two weeks’ rest. That’s a lot to ask, and Found might prefer a slightly shorter race, but the filly was competitive with Golden Horn in the Irish Champion and should be considered.

Mile

Europeans ran one-two-three in the 2014 Mile, with the French one-two, and something similar could happen again.

The 2014 winner, KARAKONTIE, returns for a race that easily has produced more repeat winners than any other in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s a bigger, stronger Karakontie than the horse who traveled to Santa Anita last year, and don’t hold his unglamorous 2015 campaign against him. Karakontie is ready for this race, but alas, he prefers firmer turf than he might get.

Trainer Andre Fabre has two strong chances in ESOTERIQUE and MAKE BELIEVE. Both are good, but Make Believe might be better, is two years younger than the 5-year-old Esoterique, and still has room to improve. Make Believe did get a perfect trip in winning the Prix de la Foret but made the most of it and showed off handiness and acceleration. He can lead, too, and bottomed out the French 2000 Guineas, a big win over the very talented New Bay. The 2000 Guineas was on good-to-soft ground, and Make Believe has a chance to get over the going here.

Esoterique will take anything better than heavy ground, Fabre said, and enters in excellent form. The potential knock is all the great work done on straight courses. Can she adapt to tight turns?

The 3-year-old TIME TEST hasn’t won a Group 1, but trainer Roger Charlton believes he’s top class. Charlton, though, was hoping for firm turf, and Time Test has a bad draw in post 12. He has traveled in great shape, and the trainer would be confident if not for all the rain.

MONDIALISTE looked good in winning the Woodbine Mile, but this presents a sterner challenge. In his favor: Up-and-coming trainer David O’Meara wants soft turf.

IMPASSABLE beat the talented Miss France last out and is a progressive 3-year-old filly, but there are unanswered questions concerning quality, and of all the Euros this week, she’s the one who has looked iffy in training.

Filly and Mare Turf

LEGATISSIMO enters with unassailable Group 1 form, no distance concerns, and picks up the services of jockey Ryan Moore. She looked well Thursday on her first day on the track, and again, the lone concern is the turf condition. She won very easily on soft at Leopardstown, but that was not a truly soft course, and Legatissimo will need late-week drying to inspire utmost confidence Saturday. Her short price will not appeal.

Don’t overlook SECRET GESTURE. Disqualified from the Beverly D., she clearly was best in the race, and her trainer has no concerns about the wet course. The skinny frame – that’s just her. She ships well and is a tough horse already proven over North American courses.

MISS FRANCE is uncertain to stay the trip but is good enough to contend and had improvement in her second race back from a layoff. BAWINA will not mind the off going but might not be quite good enough to win. QUEEN’S JEWEL could benefit from racing on Lasix but has been very disappointing since showing great promise in the spring.