North America, Thunder Snow look to light up low-wattage Dubai World Cup

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – For 700 years, experts in such things tell us, starting in about 2700 B.C. the land now called Dubai made no impression on the world. This was open desert, remote and barely inhabited, a virtual wasteland.

The 2019 Dubai World Cup feels a little like that.

The luminous likes of Arrogate, California Chrome, and Gun Runner have validated the World Cup’s towering purse two of the last three years, and even in 2018 Thunder Snow put on a show here, winning by almost six lengths for this emirate’s ruler, Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, and his longtime trainer, former Dubai policeman Saeed bin Suroor. On Saturday, Thunder Snow is back for a repeat attempt, but the American contingent lacks star power.

Jockey Christophe Soumillon will take his seat aboard Thunder Snow at about 8:40 p.m. local time Saturday, which is 12:40 p.m. on the East Coast of America, the country toward which the World Cup has been greatly geared. Five American horses – Gunnevera, Audible, Seeking the Soul, Pavel, and Yoshida – have traveled to Dubai, which long after it’s dark era became a trade hub and then an oil-rich boomtown. How rich? The World Cup alone is worth $12 million; the World Cup card offers $35 million in purses.

Thunder Snow is the best-known horse of the Dubai-based runners, but so far this season not the best runner in Dubai.

In his World Cup prep, the March 9 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3, he was trounced by the obscure Capezzano, who took an early lead over Thunder Snow and ran him off his feet. Thunder Snow tired and barely held second over the Korean horse Dolkong, the only horse drawn outside Thunder Snow on Saturday night. The 13 entrants will race 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) around two turns on a sand-based dirt surface generally known for promoting speed horses but less biased this season than some.

Thunder Snow won his World Cup on the lead after breaking from post 10, but he’s not leading Saturday, not with fleet Capezzano breaking from post 2, one stall inside North America, another dedicated front-runner.

Satish Seemar, who trains North America for Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, held North America out of the Maktoum Challenge Round 3 after the 7-year-old Dubawi gelding bossed rounds 1 and 2. North America, a continent-sized giant of a gelding ridden by Richard Mullen, blew the break in the 2018 World Cup and needs the lead.

“Jump out, dominate, catch me if you can – that’s the way he runs,” Seemar said. “We have just one plan.”

Connections selected their World Cup post positions, and with North America already drawn in post 3, Capezzano’s trainer, Salem bin Ghadayer, invited a speed duel selecting post 2. Capezzano, a 5-year-old Bernardini gelding, flashed talent at times but nothing like his last three starts, which he won by almost 26 combined lengths.

“This horse could be anything,” bin Ghadayer said.

Bin Suroor has repeated ceaselessy that he expects Thunder Snow to improve markedly Saturday. Maybe. But no horse has won two World Cups, and Thunder Snow’s ceiling is known. His breakout performance last year came while leading on a track surface that can make a horse look better than he really might be.

If Thunder Snow presses and pounces on dueling leaders he might just be pouring more fuel on the pace fire, setting the World Cup up for later-runners, of which there are several.

Gunnevera, some might have forgotten, finished one place ahead of Thunder Snow when second in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gunnevera, trained by Venezuelan expatriate Antonio Sano, breaks from the fence under Emisael Jaramillo. He can be forgiven his sixth-place finish over sloppy going last out in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Gunnevera was eighth in the 2018 World Cup but has clearly looked a more robust and settled horse this week than a year ago.

Yoshida’s connections wanted the rail, but he and jockey Jose Ortiz, who makes his Dubai debut, break from post 10 and are sure to drop back and toward the rail for position. Yoshida has thrived since arriving here and struggled over soft turf in his most recent start. Whether he can adequately stay 1 1/4 miles is an open question.

Seeking the Soul stayed on the rail, the best part of the Gulfstream surface, turning in a fine third in the Pegasus World Cup. Trainer Dallas Stewart believed enough in Seeking the Soul’s stamina to try the Belmont Stakes in 2016, yet Seeking the Soul hasn’t won beyond 1 1/8 miles. Seeking the Soul’s typical style is closing or stalking, but Stewart said if the Meydan main track appears to be carrying speed, jockey Mike Smith can place his mount closer to the front.

“We’ll be ready for that,” Stewart said.

Audible and Pavel, admirable steeds, face a tall task, as do former U.S.-based runners Gronkowski and Axelrod, both now trained by bin Ghadayer. The local horse New Trails would do well to finish fifth, while Dolkong, from Korea, and K T Brave, from Japan, lend more international flavor than actual intrigue.

Mid-week rain will give way to excellent World Cup weather. The turf should be good, the dirt fast when the card starts with a purebred Arabian race at 7:45 a.m. Eastern. Then come seven Thoroughbred stakes, with the Godolphin Mile and the Golden Shaheen (from which champion Roy H is scratched) the two dirt races along with the World Cup. The Al Quoz Sprint, a 1,200-meter straight course sprint, has Blue Point as a formidable favorite, while the Japanese filly Almond Eye is unlikely to blink in the Dubai Turf, one of two $6 million grass races along with the Sheema Classic.

The World Cup itself doesn’t look like a classic – but at $12 million, it will not disappear anytime soon from recorded history.