Threat of rain has trainers scrambling in turf stakes

A rainy forecast Friday night into Saturday in New Orleans has improved since the beginning of this week. That has not swayed trainer Larry Rivelli.

The Rivelli-trained Nobals, part of the field for the $100,000 Duncan Kenner Memorial, is the most accomplished horse entered in three turf stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds. Nobals won the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and won the Grade 2 Kennedy Road at Woodbine in November. In December, he shipped for the Hong Kong Sprint but developed a fever during travel and didn’t get to run. Now, Rivelli said he isn’t shipping Nobals from Turfway Park for the Kenner, a 5 1/2-furlong grass dash.

“It’s going to rain,” Rivelli said, “and I’m 1,000 percent banking on them not running on turf.”

Rivelli also entered Uncashed, a three-length Tampa Bay Downs allowance race winner last out. Uncashed only starts if the Kenner, which drew 11 entrants, goes on dirt.

That’s also the case for Al Stall-trained entrants Over and Ollie and Gilcrease. Over and Ollie, cut back from routes to a sharp Fair Grounds sloppy-track sprint victory last out, holds appeal if he gets to run. Uncashed and Bear River, among others, are likely to set a strong, contested pace setting up his late run.

Kavod has made 38 starts on dirt, none on turf, and his trainer, Joe Sharp, has Gilded Ruler for grass, so the first of six stakes on the card could go with as few as six runners on turf.

Bear River prefers turf to dirt but carried his form to wet main tracks and as a late-season 3-year-old in December, he beat older horses on the Fair Grounds grass in the Richie Scherer Memorial. He beat them handily, too, making the lead over firmer footing than he’s likely to find Saturday and extending his advantage from 1 1/2 lengths at the stretch call to 2 1/4 at the finish.

Mischievous Rogue, a 7-year-old, was twice rained off turf last season at Fair Grounds and now is set to start for the first time since being claimed for $80,000 by owner Alice McEwen and trainer Brittany Vanden Berg. Vanden Berg has failed to win with just three Fair Grounds runners.

Colonel E.R. Bradley

The $100,000 Colonel E.R. Bradley drew 14 entrants but could wind up a two-horse race between Northern Invader and Gigante. And since Gigante has beaten Northern Invader the three times they’ve met and holds a recency edge, he’s the most likely winner of this 1 1/16-mile grass race.

If the Bradley rains off, Gigante still figures, with two wins from three dirt starts, his lone loss in a Grade 2 scheduled for dirt.

“He’s been pretty successful on turf and really successful when he gets to run against turf horses on dirt,” trainer Steve Asmussen said.

Gigante has excelled on the Fair Grounds grass, where he’s gone 4-2-1-0. He won the Woodchopper by a narrow margin over Northern Invader two Decembers ago, finished fourth facing older horses in the Fair Grounds Stakes, then ran the best race of his career holding second behind I’m Very Busy in the $300,000 Muniz Memorial last March. And while he beat a modest bunch last month, he did so comfortably and remains a fresh horse, with just three starts since March.

“He’s kept very good company for a long time, and he’s run some solid races at the Fair Grounds. I expect that to continue,” Asmussen said.

Northern Invader hasn’t run at all since July, exiting a well-beaten third in the Kelso Stakes needing a break from racing. During his absence, 5-year-old Northern Invader was gelded.

“That has lightened him up appropriately,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said. “He used to get hot in the paddock and that seems to have gotten better.”

DeVaux said Northern Invader has trained strongly for his comeback.

“He’s sitting on tilt,” said DeVaux, who’s unlikely to run Northern Invader on dirt and isn’t thrilled at the prospect of wet turf. “I think he can handle it. I don’t know if it’s what he prefers.”

Jose Ortiz has ridden all of DeVaux’s top entrants at Fair Grounds and was on Northern Invader his last three starts, but sticks with Gigante, whom he rode for the first time last month.

Wadsworth, trained by Brad Cox, makes his third start following a 13-month layoff and finished second by a nose to Gigante in May 2023. He has a chance, as does the New York-bred veteran City Man, whose 38th start marks his first for trainer Rob Atras. Velocitor and Happy American are dirt horses whose connections hope for a rain-off. What Say Thee has the best chance at taking down the top two.

What Say Thee has won 5 of 8 starts since trainer Mike Maker claimed him for $35,000 in December 2023. He hit a flat spot late in the summer but rebounded with a game November win at Churchill when entered for a $100,000 claiming tag.

Marie Krantz Memorial

The $100,000 Marie Krantz Memorial pits Chile against Argentina and . . . Minnesota?

Chilean Group 1 winner Champagne Rose is scheduled to make her first North American start in the Krantz, where she’ll meet Argentine Group 1 winner Nanda Dea, who races for the second time since changing hemispheres.

Set to tackle both is Minnesota-bred Cupids Crush, who has found a home on turf for trainer Mac Robertson.

Champagne Rose, a 4-year-old on Southern Hemisphere time but a 5-year-old here, won 4 of 5 in Chile, all on grass, including two Group 1s over 1 1/4 miles last spring. Fern Circle Stables bought an interest in the filly, and trainer Kenny McPeek has given Champagne Rose ample time to acclimate to life in the north.

“She’s a beautiful filly,” McPeek said. “She’s really come together recently.”

Indeed, Champagne Rose worked far better Jan. 11 than she had on Dec. 28, and McPeek said she’s trained well enough on dirt that she’ll start if the Krantz rains off. In fact, McPeek is considering a scratch in favor a first-level dirt allowance at Oaklawn. And while Champagne Rose excelled over a longer distance in Chile, this 1 1/16-mile trip won’t be too short, according to McPeek. “It’s more just learning curve for her since she’s never been two turns.”

Nanda Dea, however, hit a higher level as an Argentine miler than Champagne Rose in Chile, and the longer arc of her career carries more weight than the modest 87 Beyer Speed Figure she earned winning her North American debut last fall at Keeneland.

“She’s the real thing,” said trainer Ignacio Correas, who probably will scratch Nanda Dea rather than race her on dirt.

Cupids Crush will start regardless of the surface, Robertson said. Cutting back from routes to a sprint, she went from ninth at the stretch call to second at the finish in the Pan Zareta on Nov. 30. Cupids Crush will stick closer to the pace, perhaps even set it, at this two-turn trip. The South Americans will be coming.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.