Nobals needs dry weather in stakes-caliber turf sprint
?q=100)
A sleepy Sunday at Churchill Downs? Ha! The nine-race card doesn’t have a stakes in name only, and the seventh race, a $141,000 allowance for older horses scheduled as a turf sprint, should wind up with at least one multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire going postward.
The nine-horse field for the 5 1/2-furlong race includes millionaire Nobals, winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint; fellow multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire Tejano Twist; stakes winner Run Carson; Dhabab, who is graded and group stakes-placed in Canada and England; and graded stakes-placed Script.
The ultimate makeup of the race could come down to whether it remains on turf. It was wet across Kentucky on Friday, and there was a 70 percent chance of rain in Louisville on Sunday.
Nobals has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces and is 3 for 3 on the Churchill turf. The 7-year-old, who has had ups and downs in his career, had a fine fall at Woodbine, finishing second by a neck in the Grade 2 Nearctic on turf and then scoring a repeat win in the Grade 2 Kennedy Road on synthetic, his 10th career stakes win.
In his most recent outing, Nobals was fifth after dueling early in an allowance on Dec. 18 at Turfway Park. He appears to be working well for his return at trainer Larry Rivelli’s Hawthorne base.
Tejano Twist is mainly a dirt sprinter and would be a major force if the race came off the lawn. He did make three starts on turf, all in stakes, in 2021 and 2022 and was second by a neck in the Rosie’s at Colonial.
The most recent of Tejano Twist’s seven stakes wins came in the Grade 3 Whitmore in March at Oaklawn Park. He was fourth in a solid field for the Grade 3 Aristides on May 30 at Churchill for trainer Chris Hartman.
Script would be intriguing regardless of surface if he gets back to his best form, and could offer a bit of value. The gelding is a Grade 2-placed winner on turf and a stakes-placed winner on dirt.
After moving to Rusty Arnold’s barn, Script did not miss the board in nine starts last year. He hit particularly nice form toward the end of the year, finishing second in the Grade 2 Woodford on the Keeneland turf, beaten a neck by globe-trotting Khaadem, and third in the Holiday Cheer on the Turfway Tapeta behind Joe Shiesty and Howard Wolowitz.
Script most recently started in February, finishing sixth in the Forego at Turfway after bobbling at the break and never getting into a rhythm. The question will be if he can rediscover his consistent form following a freshening.
:: Subscribe to the DRF Post Time Email Newsletter: Get the news you need to play today's races!
In race 6, the pricey Stellenbosch makes his career debut in a $120,000 maiden special weight for 3-year-olds and up sprinting six furlongs.
Stellenbosch is by Tapit and out of Grade 3 winner Verve’s Tale, who is a full sister to Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve. The 3-year-old colt was a $1.05 million Keeneland September yearling purchase by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables, which head his large ownership group.
Stellenbosch has a long work tab dating back to spring 2025 in California for Bob Baffert. The trainer has elected to keep a string at Churchill this season, tapping Dan Ward as his local assistant, and Stellenbosch has had his three most recent breezes locally.
The lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite in an overflow field is Differential, an $825,000 Keeneland September yearling by leading sire Into Mischief. The colt has multiple recent bullet works at Churchill for Brad Cox.
Godolphin homebred Carnival Lad will likely take some time to develop – hence his 20-1 price on the morning line – but has a pedigree worth circling. The Not This Time colt is from the immediate family of Hall of Famer Royal Delta.
The second race, a $120,000 maiden special weight for fillies and mares on the turf, is at 1 1/2 miles – a somewhat rare distance, let alone in a maiden race. Nobody here has gone beyond 1 1/8 miles, but the morning-line favorite is Irish-born Elida’s Angel, who appeared as though she would relish more ground while debuting at that distance for Cherie DeVaux. The filly hopped at the start and was bumped as a result. Tenth early behind an honest but not scorching pace, she rallied wide to be fourth.
Elida’s Angel is by Camelot, an English classic winner at up to 1 1/2 miles. He recently sired Christmas Day, winner of the Epsom Derby at that distance.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.