No shortage of speed in Kentucky Oaks; Bellafina favored

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Things aren’t always as they seem, but in the case of the 145th Kentucky Oaks, there sure does seem to be a ton of speed, no?

An oversubscribed field of 3-year-old fillies makes for some fascinating handicapping. Given the presence of speedsters such as Motion Emotion and Serengeti Empress, not to mention the likes of reigning divisional champion Jaywalk and the clear-cut race favorite Bellafina, there’ll be no shortage of pace in the 1 1/8-mile filly classic.

The likelihood of a hectic pace scenario brings an overarching question to the Grade 1, $1.25 million Oaks, for which an ontrack throng of 120,000 is expected: Whether a ruinous pace will set things up for a stalker or closer.

“It’s going to take a special performance by any of these fillies to win,” said trainer Tom Amoss, who sends out Serengeti Empress.

In all, 16 are entered in the Oaks, with the first of two alternates, Dunbar Road, being considered a major threat if she can make the race in case of a defection by scratch time of 9 a.m. Eastern Friday. In fact, Dunbar Road is listed as the 5-1 second choice on the Churchill morning line, behind only Bellafina (2-1). Also-eligibles automatically start from the outside posts.

“She’s trained so brilliantly that we’d just like to have the opportunity to prove herself,” said Dunbar Road’s trainer, Chad Brown.

With or without her, many horseplayers believe the race goes through Bellafina, the California sensation whose only subpar effort in eight career starts just so happened to come outside of her comfort zone here last fall, when she was a well-beaten fourth as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies behind the wire-to-wire winner, Jaywalk. Trainer Simon Callaghan has been dismissive of that blip, saying the daughter of Quality Road has matured and improved and that he expects a far better effort in her return to Kentucky off three straight stakes victories at her Santa Anita home base.

“We are very happy with how she’s coming into the race,” said Callaghan.

Bellafina was one of the later arrivals on the scene, having gotten her final pre-race work in last Friday at Santa Anita before being flown here Monday.

Flavien Prat will be aboard Bellafina when she breaks from post 4, and they will look to secure a comfortable spot just off the pace. That, too, is the likely strategy for quite a few others, including Out for a Spin, Lady Apple, Street Band, Restless Rider, and maybe a couple of the longer shots such as Flor de La Mar and Fiora.

Restless Rider, with Brian Hernandez Jr. riding from post 14, has never been worse than second in seven starts and has been particularly effective at making well-timed moves after rating willingly.

“She’s smart and she’s fast,” said trainer Kenny McPeek. “Everything we’ve done with her for months has been toward this moment. This is the big stage.”

Restless Rider is listed as the 6-1 co-third choice on the Churchill line, along with another locally based filly who wintered in Florida, Champagne Anyone. A last-out winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, Champagne Anyone doesn’t have the same kind of early speed as some of her rivals, but her late kick and improving form make her a deep-stretch danger. Chris Landeros will be aboard from post 10 for his father-in-law, trainer Ian Wilkes.

“I really like how the filly is doing,” said Wilkes. “I’ll have Chris play the break, see what some of the others are up to. She’s a pretty handy filly.”

Jaywalk’s wire-to-wire Breeders’ Cup romp earned her the Eclipse Award for top 2-year-old filly of 2018, but she has not been as sharp in two starts at 3. Trainer John Servis has insisted all along that the gray filly’s peak effort will come in the Oaks. Jaywalk was fourth in the Davona Dale at Gulfstream and third in the Ashland at Keeneland, both times as the favorite.

“I can’t imagine her being any better than she is now,” Servis said.

Street Band, winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks, will break from post 12 under Sophie Doyle, who will be attempting to become just the second female jockey to win the Oaks, after Rosie Napravnik, who won it twice, with Believe You Can (2012) and Untapable (2014).

Larry Jones, trainer of Street Band, is a three-time Oaks winner, as is Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, trainer of Flor de La Mar, the Santa Anita Oaks runner-up behind Bellafina. The late Woody Stephens is the all-time leader with six wins.

Out for a Spin, breaking from the rail with Irad Ortiz Jr., will be looking to prove her 52-1 upset in the Ashland last month was no fluke. The Hard Spun filly is trained by Dallas Stewart, who engineered the greatest upset in Oaks history when Lemons Forever won the 2006 running at 47-1.

Lady Apple and Motion Emotion both spent the winter at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, exiting with a respective one-two finish in the April 12 Fantasy Stakes.

Rounding out the Oaks lineup are Chocolate Kisses, Positive Spirit, and Jeltrin. The second alternate, Point of Honor, would need two scratches to get in.

The Kentucky Oaks, long a benchmark for divisional supremacy, goes as the 11th of 13 races on a sensational Friday card that starts at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Post time for the Oaks is 6:12, with the 13th race set for 7:23. NBCSN will have extensive live coverage of the Oaks and much of the undercard, which includes five other graded stakes featuring such stars as Newspaperofrecord (Edgewood, race 6) and McKinzie (Alysheba, race 7).

The Oaks is part of several two-day wagers that also include the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, including a new $2 pick six comprising Grade 1 races.

The weather forecast for Friday calls for periods of rain and a high of 75. As for established off-track form, there’s not much of it among the entire field, with perhaps the most notable race being the Golden Rod here last fall when Liora prevailed at 27-1 by a nose over Restless Rider in the slop.