No lack of strength – or horses – in this Kentucky Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The consensus is that the field for this Kentucky Derby, to be run Saturday at Churchill Downs, is shaping up as the strongest in years. The consensus is that American Pharoah is the horse to beat, with many other worthy contenders meriting strong looks. And yet that won’t stop a full field – likely an overflow field – from being entered Wednesday.

Such is the nature of the Kentucky Derby in recent years. It’s almost as though with a 20-horse limit, a number of owners and trainers are of a mind that if they can run, they should run, regardless of the opposition.

That’s a seemingly justifiable position to take in a weak year. This doesn’t look like one of them. Eight of the runners – American Pharoah, Bolo, Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted, Materiality, Tencendur, and Upstart – have already recorded Beyer Speed Figures of at least 100, several of them on multiple occasions.

“This is probably the best Kentucky Derby I’ve been involved in, as a jockey or an analyst,” Gary Stevens, the rider of Firing Line, said Monday. “There’s a lot of depth.”

Mark Casse, who trains Danzig Moon, said this is “one tough Derby.”

As of Monday, there were 22 horses under consideration for the Derby. A maximum of 20 can run, with preference to horses who earned the most points in 35 designated Derby prep races. If more than 20 enter, as many as four horses can be placed on an also-eligible list. The two on Monday on the outside looking in, in points order, were Frammento and Bold Conquest.

Nick Zito, the trainer of Frammento, wants to run. Frammento was scheduled to be sent by van Tuesday from Keeneland, where he has been training, to Churchill Downs.

Bold Conquest is already at Churchill Downs, where he worked five furlongs in 1:01.68 on Monday.

If there are no defections from the 20 horses in the main body of the race by entry time Wednesday, Bold Conquest will not be entered, according to trainer Steve Asmussen.

If a horse is placed on the also-eligible list, he only gets in if a horse in the main body of the race defects. The also-eligible horse who gets in would be put in post 20 because all horses outside the scratched horse would move in a slot in the starting gate. Asmussen wants no part of that.

Asmussen said the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard is not an option for Bold Conquest because it is run at one turn. “He’s a two-turn horse,” Asmussen said.

So, if there are no defections before entry time Wednesday, it is entirely possible that Frammento will be the lone also-eligible. But it seems very likely that there will be more than 20 horses entered. Whoever ends up on the also-eligible list must draw in by scratch time Friday morning, when early-bird betting for the Derby begins. If a horse in the main body of the race scratches Friday afternoon or Saturday, that’s too late for an also-eligible horse to get in.

The Derby draw will take place Wednesday from 5:30 p.m. to 6 p.m. during a live telecast on NBCSN. It is a traditional random draw.

“Probably the last stressful moment is the draw,” said Bob Baffert, the trainer of American Pharoah and Dortmund who famously said he “wanted to barf” right after Lookin At Lucky drew the rail in 2010 in a 20-horse field. His fear was founded. Lookin At Lucky finished sixth after a rough trip.

American Pharoah solidified his position as the Derby favorite with a final workout Sunday that was both fast and seemingly effortless. He went five furlongs in 58.62 seconds and galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.01, all without any encouragement from jockey Martin Garcia.

“He’s a good one. Superstar,” Garcia said. “I never asked him.”

Garcia is the regular work rider for American Pharoah but yields the race-day assignment to Victor Espinoza, who will be seeking his second straight Kentucky Derby victory, having won it last year with California Chrome. Garcia has the Derby mount on Dortmund, who is expected to be the second choice to American Pharoah.

The forecast for Derby Day, according to The Weather Channel, is sensational, with a high temperature of 77 degrees and no chance of rain. The only day this week when rain is forecast is Thursday, when there is a 40 percent chance of showers.

– additional reporting by Mike Welsch