No clear-cut pacesetter in this Kentucky Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – There has been much wringing of hooves and gnashing of bridles this week at Churchill Downs about the state of pace in the Kentucky Derby.

The notion that Churchill Downs’s points system to determine the 20 Derby starters has shoved out many of the truly fast front-runners of Derbies past has for the most part become accepted narrative – and it definitely appears to be the case this year.

Among the 20 horses at the top of the Derby qualifying points list, a single animal, Battle of Midway, was the first-call leader in his most recent start before the Derby. And Battle of Midway’s trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, has been adamant that the plan Saturday is to take the horse back off the early pace.

The connections of Fast and Accurate announced over the weekend they intend to send their horse to the Derby lead. But Fast and Accurate is simply not all that fast, so their statement might not prove accurate.

One hears folks keep saying things like, “Well, someone always goes out there winging. The pace will end up being fast.” But will it?

“There’s just not the speed in the Derby now that there used to be,” said trainer Mark Casse, who has more than a passive interest in the dynamic.

Casse trains potential Derby favorite Classic Empire, who, barring the totally unexpected, will not be on the lead. But Casse’s second Derby horse, State of Honor, is a stealth candidate to lead the Derby field into the first turn.

In his second-to-last start as a 2-year-old, State of Honor contested a strong enough pace in a seven-furlong sprint race. And in his first two route races in 2017, the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby, State of Honor led from the start to midstretch, laying down solid to strong fractions in both races. In the Florida Derby, State of Honor broke from the rail and was held up a bit just off the lead, but it will be no surprise if he and jockey Jose Lezcano come out running Saturday.

“We’re not going to fight with him,” Casse said. “We kind of wrestled with him in the Florida Derby a little bit. If Jose can get him back, fine, but if not, fine. There could be some horses on the lead there you’d never have thought of, but if no one wants it, hey, we’ll take it.”

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