New Orleans Handicap looks like wide-open race

The first of four Grade 2 stakes races Saturday at Fair Grounds, the $400,000 New Orleans Handicap, is the most competitive of them. The field is rife with contenders, and its favorite almost can’t be lower than 3-1.

Ten were entered in the 1 1/8-mile dirt race, but no more than nine will start since Roman Approval goes instead in the Mervin Muniz Memorial. Noble Bird is the 7-2 morning-line favorite and 121-pound highweight, but there are plenty of other directions in which to turn.

Hawaakom could be the most likely winner, and at a fair price, too. Hawaakom, a 7-year-old gelding who has improved steadily over the last two years, enters Saturday’s race in the best form of his life.

He had trouble when fifth in the Grade 1 Clark to end his 2016 campaign, then rallied into a slow pace to win the Louisiana Stakes on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds and was a sharp second behind Gun Runner, who would come back with an excellent second in the $10 million Dubai World Cup, in the $400,000 Razorback on Feb. 20 at Oaklawn. Hawaakom shortly afterward returned to his home base at Fair Grounds and turned in a sizzling five-furlong workout for this race March 16.

“The way he ran the other day and the way he worked, my horse is just doing so good right now,” said Wes Hawley, who trains Hawaakom and is his principal owner. “I think he might even be a little bit better now than for the Razorback.”

Breaking Lucky would offer supporters fair value at something close to his 8-1 morning-line odds. Drawn on the rail for trainer Reade Baker and jockey Luis Contreras, Breaking Lucky has been radically in and out in his last four starts. He was beaten less than a length in the Grade 1 Woodward, then finished eighth by 12 lengths in the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. He finished a good second to Gun Runner in the Clark but was eighth by 26 lengths last out in the Pegasus World Cup. Baker, however, has reasonable excuses.

“The Lukas, I think he bounced, and it was a wet-fast track, and if you look back at his races on soft turf, if he gets a track he doesn’t like, he’s just not going to run,” Baker said. “I was very disappointed in his Pegasus until I found out he came back loaded with mucus. I think he’s got a good chance in there.”

Baker worries about Noble Bird slipping loose on the lead, and indeed, the 6-year-old is a dangerous horse when galloping alone in the clear. He did make the lead in the Pegasus but was going at a strong pace while facing an excellent field headed by Arrogate.

“Julien [Leparoux] said we were out there flying on the lead, and he looked over at Mike Smith on Arrogate, and he was smiling,” trainer Mark Casse said. “If the real Noble Bird shows up, they’ll have to beat him. If not, who knows?”

Florent Geroux rides Noble Bird, who might have front-end company from Iron Fist and the rank outsider Aglimpseofgabby. A quick, contested pace would boost the chances of three closers: Eagle, International Star, and Mo Tom.

Eagle was a troubled fourth in this race last year, and trainer Neil Howard fully expects Eagle to move forward from a fourth-place finish last month in the Mineshaft, his first start since July. International Star appeared to be spinning his wheels in the Mineshaft, his first race since June, but came with a late rush to finish second by a half-length. Mo Tom, trainer Tom Amoss said, tired badly after being undertrained for a comeback run in the Mineshaft.

The Mineshaft’s winner, Honorably Duty, has a good chance. He has won two stakes in his two starts since being gelded and appeared to wait on rivals after quickly making the front at the top of the homestretch in the Mineshaft.