Nadal heads deeper second division of Arkansas Derby

Splitting a race into two divisions is first done by blindly dividing horses with common ownership, then blindly dividing horses with the same trainer, then blindly splitting the rest. It’s like a series of coin flips, only with entry slips. For the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, those coin flips resulted a second division that appears on paper to have come up far stronger than the first division.

Collectively, the 10 expected to start in race 13 on Saturday at Oaklawn – including last year’s champion 2-year-old male, Storm the Court – have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Tampa Bay Derby, San Vicente, Rebel, Louisiana Derby, Southwest, and Kentucky Jockey Club, all significant graded stakes. There’s a good mix of speed (Nadal, King Guillermo, Wells Bayou), stalkers (Storm the Court), and late-runners (Silver Prospector, Farmington Road), making this a far more compelling race – again, on paper – than the first division, in which Charlatan figures to be heavily favored.

As with the first division, 11 were entered, but already there has been one defection, in this case Fast Enough. The remaining runners will go 1 1/8 miles for a $500,000 purse and point values for the first four finishers of 100-40-20-10 toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby, now scheduled for Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs.

Nadal, like Charlatan trained by Bob Baffert, could be the slight favorite after winning the 1 1/16-mile Rebel at Oaklawn on a sloppy, sealed track in his two-turn debut March 14. He had the rail that day, went for the lead, and bravely held on after setting a sharp pace and turning back several early challengers. He got a Beyer Speed Figure of 96.

Nadal faces a different set of hurdles Saturday. King Guillermo, drawn just to his inside, has the speed to go to the lead, and Wells Bayou undoubtedly will be sent from his outside draw. Nadal has been asked to sit just off rivals in his recent works at Santa Anita, and Baffert is confident he can adjust on race day if needed.

“He’ll come out of the gate running. Last time, where he was drawn, he broke well, got hooked, didn’t have any option,” Baffert said. “If he was outside, he could have sat. He can sit off a horse.”

King Guillermo turned in a freakish performance in the Tampa Bay Derby, crushing his rivals by nearly five lengths at 49-1 while earning a Beyer Figure of 99, tops among this field. He has trained brilliantly at Gulfstream Park in the weeks since.

Wells Bayou and jockey Florent Geroux took advantage of a soft pace when leading from start to finish in the Louisiana Derby, which this year was lengthened from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles, 110 yards longer than the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Brad Cox initially was on the fence over running Wells Bayou in the Arkansas Derby, but Wells Bayou’s training signaled he was ready for more.

“He’s trained as well as he did going into the Louisiana Derby,” Cox said. “I’m not crazy about the post, but post can be somewhat overrated. It’s a nice field. It’s a true Grade 1. He’s going to have to get a good trip. Flo will have to ask him to run away from there.”

The postponement of the Kentucky Derby, originally scheduled for Saturday, and the unsettled nature of stakes racing in coming months also played a role in deciding to run, Cox said.

“There’s no other options,” he said. “This is a chance for him to get his first Grade 1 and hopefully continue to build a nice résumé.”

Storm the Court’s résumé includes an Eclipse Award. He is winless in two starts this year, most recently finishing third behind the high-class West Coast pair of Authentic and Honor A. P. in the San Felipe, in which Storm the Court got a career-best Beyer Figure of 89.

Farmington Road and Taishan were second and third in the Oaklawn Stakes on April 11.

Trainer Todd Pletcher said bringing back Farmington Road in three weeks is easier for him than a speed horse.

“With his style, it’s not like he’s involved from the start going 22 and change, 45 and change. It’s easier for him to bounce back.”

Taishan “ran a sneaky-good race,” said his trainer, Richard Baltas. “They went fast, and he made an early move.”

Silver Prospector beat Wells Bayou in the Southwest on Feb. 17 – earning a career-best Beyer Figure of 97 – then was sixth on an off track in the Rebel.

Code Runner, Finnick the Fierce, and Saratogian complete the field.