Mullins, McCanna bring the chalk
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ARCADIA, Calif. – If a weekly report existed that documented winning favorites at Santa Anita, it could be sponsored by Jeff Mullins and Tim McCanna.
The idea is tongue-in-cheek. Mullins and McCanna are trainers, not handicapping statisticians. But this winter, both are enjoying a tidal wave of chalk that shows no signs of letting up.
Favorites went 20 for 38 last week at Santa Anita and are 49 percent (81 of 164) for the meet. Mullins and McCanna are partly responsible. Mullins has won with his last eight favorites, McCanna his last three. Friday looks like more of the same.
McCanna-trained Grubauer looms a short price in race 3, an allowance dirt sprint that would be his fourth straight win and second at the meet. Mullins-trained Lady Gregory is chalk in race 5, an allowance turf sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. She missed by a head in her local debut.
Grubauer’s three allowance wins include two at Pleasanton, where McCanna is based, and one at Santa Anita under conditions similar to Friday. The six-furlong race for nonwinners of $21,000 other-than is restricted to horses and horsemen based in Northern California since Jan. 1, 2024.
It’s about to get tougher for Grubauer, whose highest single-race purse earnings was $18,600, below the eligibility cutoff.
“This is the last go,” McCanna acknowledged. “They changed it in the next book to $15,000 instead of $21,000. We’re kind of flying in under the radar on this one.”
Grubauer was odds-on Jan. 5, when he defeated three of the six rivals he meets again Friday. McCanna expects another top effort.
“He’s a real professional, just a nice little horse,” McCanna said. “He’s kind of a natural, he’s had a couple nice easy breezes and is handling the track fine.”
Assael Espinoza is the regular rider for Grubauer, who has won 4 of 7 and is the fastest horse in the field. The downside to starting an odds-on favorite? McCanna joked Grubauer “will be a short price; we can only look bad” if he gets beat.
Race 5 favorite Lady Gregory was with Northern California trainer Kent Molinaro until winter. She entered a Southern California barn that is hot. Mullins is tied for second with 10 wins from 31 starters. A win by Lady Gregory would make it nine straight winning favorites for Mullins.
“She’s a really straightforward filly, she ran a super race last time,” Mullins said.
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Lady Gregory missed by a head, earning a career-high figure at six furlongs on turf.
“I think she’ll enjoy the” 6 1/2, Mullins said. “Hector [Berrios] is still getting to know her.”
The short-price theme continues in race 8, an entry-level allowance sprint led by March of Time. His last-out 94 Beyer Speed Figure maiden victory was validated when runner-up Santarena returned to win a fast maiden race last week.
Bob Baffert, 10 for 35 this meet and tied for second, trains March of Time. The 4-year-old Justify colt is a sibling to Grade 1 winner Bodemeister and Grade 2 winner Under the Stars.
Juan Hernandez rides March of Time. Over the past four years, Hernandez and Baffert teamed to go 126 for 254 (49 percent) with favorites.
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