Mud may negate Paid Up Subscriber's advantage in La Troienne

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Paid Up Subscriber is a proven commodity at Churchill Downs, going 3 for 3 over the track, including a victory in last year’s Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap. She isn’t proven, however, on a wet racetrack – a condition she could face in Friday’s Grade 1, $300,000 La Troienne on the Kentucky Oaks undercard.

Paid Up Subscriber isn’t alone in lacking wet-track experience. Three other fillies and mares in the nine-horse field – Impasse, Big World, and Streamline – are also unraced over an off track, and another, Finest City, is likely to scratch in favor of Saturday’s Grade 1 Humana Distaff if the weather forecast suggests a drier surface on Derby Day, trainer Ian Kruljac said Tuesday.

Although Churchill Downs has one of the quickest-drying tracks in the country, weather reports indicate a high probability for wet conditions Friday, at least early in the day. As of midday Wednesday, the National Weather Service was forecasting more than 1 1/4 inches of rain to fall in the Louisville area from Thursday into Friday morning, with intermittent rainfall Friday afternoon.

The La Troienne, a 1 1/16-mile dirt race that goes as the first of six stakes on Oaks Day, is the fifth race on the card at 12:35 p.m. Eastern.

If Finest City is scratched to await the Humana Distaff, Paid Up Subscriber figures to start as a clear-cut favorite despite not having raced on a wet surface. In addition to her past success at Churchill, she turned in a promising first race of the year when third behind Paulassilverlining and Constellation in the Grade 1 Madison last month at Keeneland.

Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, who took over her training from Al Stall this year, said Paid Up Subscriber has been training “terrific” and believes “the stretch-out will help her.”

Joel Rosario, who will be aboard the Brown-trained Practical Joke in the Kentucky Derby, has the mount on Paid Up Subscriber.

Eskenformoney, who should vie with Streamline for second choice in the wagering if Finest City is scratched, has wet-track experience. She finished second, beaten a neck, in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher last summer at Monmouth Park.

Eskenformoney comes off a productive winter campaign in which she won the Grade 3 Rampart at Gulfstream Park, finished a distant third in the Grade 2 Royal Delta there, and then ran second to Streamline in the Grade 2 Azeri at Oaklawn Park on March 18.

Streamline, an Oaklawn specialist, subsequently ran third behind Stellar Wind and Terra Promessa in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 14.

La Troienne, Race 5

Key Contenders

Eskenformoney, by Eskendereya

Last 3 Beyers: 84-78-89

◗ Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, won this race last year with Curalina, but his record on dirt in graded stakes races at Churchill over the past five years is just 12 percent, well off his 21 percent record with such types at all North American tracks over the same time frame.

Big World, by Custom for Carlos

Last 3 Beyers: 83-88-89

◗ The winner of the Grade 3 Tempted as a 2-year-old in 2015, she comes off a confidence-building winter in Louisiana and Arkansas, where she won four of five starts, though four of those races were restricted to Louisiana-breds.

Paid Up Subscriber, by Candy Ride

Last 3 Beyers: 85-89-97

◗ Makes just her second start for current owners Peter Brant and Joseph Allen, who purchased her for $1.1 million at the Fasig-Tipton November sale in 2016.

Finest City, by City Zip

Last 3 Beyers: 97-94-94

◗ Although most accomplished racing seven-eighths, she was brave in defeat while finishing second to Vale Dori in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita going 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita on March 18.